Last Updated Apr 23, 2022, 5:50 PM

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Friday night with a critical third matchup between Southeast Division rivals in the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. Coverage begins from State Farm Arena in Atlanta at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

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Score Prediction

Heat 108, Hawks 104

Best Bets

Under 221.5 (-110) at BetMGM

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Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions

After falling to Milwaukee in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Hawks opened with a frustrating 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS skid – despite getting tagged as favorites in 25 of those matchups.

Atlanta has played solid, yet inconsistent basketball since mid-January though, considering the Hawks closed the regular season with a sturdy 29-14 SU and 25-19 ATS run – while yielding lofty averages of 116.5 OPPG and 112.8 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami posted a triumphant start to the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch – with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat carried that same momentum all the way to the finish line, considering Miami enters Game 3 riding an impressive 40-18 SU and 33-24-1 ATS stretch – while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and 11th in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.055 DE).

I’ll take the under here, as the Heat averaged a lofty 115 OPPG on 50.3% FG and 43.2% 3FG across Games 1 and 2, and while Miami’s offensive success partially stemmed from Atlanta’s struggles on defense, the pace should slow down in Games 3 and 4 against a Hawks squad that’s been phenomenal at home this year (28-14 SU) despite averaging just 108.8 OPPG since the start of the Play-In Tournament.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Odds

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Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Resources

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 55-29
  • ATS: 48-35-1
  • O/U: 49-35

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish, the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions in order to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition was seamless to start, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with Miami’s only ATS losses across that span coming in tough matchups against the Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, and Celtics.

However, the depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed back in December, considering a revolving door of health issues briefly spiraled Miami into a frustrating 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of an issue down the stretch though, highlighted by Miami’s solid 39-18 SU, 32-24-1 ATS run to close the regular season.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

  • SU: 45-41
  • ATS: 37-47
  • O/U: 43-41

The Hawks were inevitably cursed with lofty expectations after last year’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals run; however, Atlanta struggled miserably out of the gate, as Atlanta dropped 26-of-41 matchups to start the regular season, despite getting tagged as underdogs in just 15 of those contests.

Atlanta has been on quite the rollercoaster since January though, considering the Hawks enter Game 3 riding a sturdy 29-16 SU and 25-21 ATS stretch, despite ranking 21st in the league in points allowed and 26th in defensive efficiency on the year (112.2 DPPG, 1.112 DE).

However, Atlanta has played solid defense since the conclusion of the regular season, considering the Hawks have allowed just 108.5 DPPG on a 1.108 defensive efficiency rating across their four postseason matchups.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine matchups between Atlanta and Miami. (Getty Images)

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Head-to-Head

The Hawks won two of three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first two contests staying well under the total at an average of 191 PPG, while the third cruised over with a score of 118-103 (O 212). However, the Heat went 3-1 SU against Atlanta this season, with two of those matchups soaring over the total at an average of 230 PPG, while the other two stayed under at 214 PPG. Atlanta also dropped Games 1 and 2 of this series in Miami, which stayed well under the total at an average of 213 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)
  • ATL: Trae Young - PG (28.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST)
  • ATL: Clint Capela - C (11.1 PPG, 11.9 REB, 1.3 BLK)

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Conclusion

After posting back-to-back double-digit road losses to open the series, the Hawks return home for Friday’s third matchup as short home underdogs against the Heat at State Farm Arena – which is much shorter than the number Miami was favored by in Games 1 and 2.

I’ll take the under here, as Atlanta is 2-2 SU and ATS since the conclusion of the regular season, while scoring 108.8 OPPG and surrendering 108.5 DPPG across that window, setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle against a Heat squad that ranks third in points allowed and fifth in defensive efficiency on the year (105.4 DPPG, 1.055 DE).

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends

  • The Heat are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Hawks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups against Atlanta.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last nine Hawks' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine matchups between Atlanta and Miami.
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