Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions, Picks, Odds

First Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Sunday night with a crucial Game 4 between Southeast Division rivals in the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks. Coverage begins from State Farm Arena in Atlanta at 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Heat 114, Hawks 107

Best Bets

Heat -2 (-110) at FanDuel

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Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions

After falling to Milwaukee in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals, Atlanta stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to this season, as the Hawks opened with a frustrating 16-25 SU and 14-27 ATS skid – despite getting tagged as favorites in 25 of those matchups.

Atlanta has played solid, yet inconsistent basketball since mid-January though, considering the Hawks closed the regular season with a sturdy 29-14 SU and 25-19 ATS run – while yielding lofty averages of 116.5 OPPG and 112.8 DPPG across that window.

On the other hand, Miami absolutely dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way to the postseason, considering Miami enters Game 4 riding an impressive 40-19 SU stretch – while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.055 DE).

I’ll back Miami here, as the Heat nearly escaped with a victory in Game 3 despite shooting 44% from the floor and 31% from three-point range in Friday’s contest; and while Atlanta has been excellent at home this year (29-14 SU, 25-18 ATS), I highly doubt this series will head back to Miami for Game 5 tied 2-2.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Odds

More Odds | Futures Odds

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southeast
• Date: Sunday, April 24, 2022
• Venue: State Farm Arena
• Location: Atlanta, GA
• TV-Time: TNT - 7:00 p.m. ET
• Injury Report
• NBA Playoff Betting Central

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

• SU: 55-30
• ATS: 48-36-1
• O/U: 49-36

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish, the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions in order to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The transition was seamless at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth that Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed back in December, as a revolving door of health issues briefly spiraled Miami into a frustrating 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. Depth hasn’t been much of an issue down the stretch though, considering Miami enters Sunday’s Game 4 riding a sturdy 40-19 SU and 33-25-1 ATS stretch.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Analysis

• SU: 46-41
• ATS: 38-47
• O/U: 43-42

The Hawks were inevitably cursed with high expectations after last year’s impressive Eastern Conference Finals run; however, Atlanta struggled miserably out of the gate, as Atlanta dropped 26-of-41 matchups to open the season, despite getting tagged as favorites in 26 of those contests.

Atlanta has been on quite the rollercoaster since January though, considering the Hawks enter Game 4 riding a modest 30-16 SU and 26-21 ATS stretch, despite crossing the regular-season finish line ranked 21^st in the league in points allowed and 26^th in defensive efficiency (112.2 DPPG, 1.112 DE).

However, Atlanta has played solid defense since the start of the Play-In Tournament, considering the Hawks have allowed just 108.8 DPPG on a 45.6 FG% across their five postseason matchups.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Head-to-Head

The Hawks won two of three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with the first two contests staying well under the total at an average of 191 PPG, while the third cruised over with a score of 118-103 (O 212).

However, the Heat went 3-1 SU against Atlanta this season, with two of those matchups soaring over the total at an average of 230 PPG, while the other two stayed under at 214 PPG.

The Hawks also dropped the first two matchups of this series in Miami, which both stayed well under the total at an average of 213 PPG, however, Atlanta quickly came charging back with a thrilling 111-110 home victory in Game 3.

Key Players to Watch

• MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
• MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)
• ATL: Trae Young - PG (28.4 PPG, 3.7 REB, 9.7 AST)
• ATL: Bogdan Bogdanovic - C (15.1 PPG, 4 REB, 3.1 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Conclusion

After bouncing back from consecutive road losses with a narrow home win in Game 3 (W, 111-110), the Hawks enter Sunday’s fourth matchup as short home underdogs against the Heat at State Farm Arena, which is roughly the same number Miami was favored by this past Friday (ATL +2).

I’ll back the Miami here, as the Hawks barely escaped with a one-point victory in Game 3 despite the Heat shooting 44% from the field and 31% from long-range throughout the contest, and while the Miami’s offensive struggles seemed to partially stem from the Hawks’ heightened defensive effort, I still expect Miami to be far more efficient and claim a 3-1 lead in Game 4 this Sunday.

Miami Heat vs. Atlanta Hawks Betting Trends

• The Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games.
• The Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Heat' games.
• The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last seven matchups against Atlanta.
• The total has gone UNDER in nine of the last ten Hawks' games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between Atlanta and Miami.