Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

11 minute read

Monday’s slate of Second Round NBA Playoff action will conclude with a heavyweight Game 1 battle between the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns. Coverage begins from Footprint Center in Phoenix at 10:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Suns 106, Mavericks 101

Best Bets

Under 214.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Predictions

After finishing second in the West with a record of 51-21 SU last year, Phoenix kept that same train rolling with another dominant start to this season, as the Suns opened with a red-hot 27-8 SU and 18-17 ATS run, with 18 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Despite Chris Paul’s 15-game absence down the stretch, Phoenix has carried that same momentum all the way through the regular-season finish line, considering the Suns enter Monday’s series-opener riding an impressive 41-12 SU and 30-23 ATS stretch, while averaging 116.5 OPPG and allowing just 109.5 DPPG during that timeframe.

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On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a lackluster 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks enter Monday’s Game 1 riding a red-hot 40-14 SU and 36-18 ATS run, while surrendering just 104.1 DPPG to their opponents during that timeframe.

I’ll take the under here, as the Mavericks are 13-4 SU and ATS in their last 17 games, while allowing just 105.2 DPPG to their opponents across that span, setting the stage for a hard-fought defensive battle against a Suns squad that surrendered 104.5 DPPG across last year’s impressive Finals’ run – and just held New Orleans to 109.8 DPPG in the opening round of this year’s playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southwest vs Pacific
• Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
• Venue: Footprint Center
• Location: Phoenix, AZ
• TV-Time: TNT - 10:00 p.m. ET
• Injury Report

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 56-32
• ATS: 51-36-1
• O/U: 33-54-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas initially kept the disappointment train rolling with a mediocre start to this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas completely flipped the script with its defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Monday’s series-opener riding an impressive 40-14 SU run, despite averaging just 109.5 OPPG across that stretch.

Phoenix Suns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 68-20
• ATS: 48-40
• O/U: 44-43-1

After battling Utah for the top spot in the conference all the way through the final day of last year’s regular season (51-21 SU), Phoenix was surprisingly rusty to start the year, as the Suns dropped three-of-four contests out of the gate, while averaging just 106.3 OPPG across that stretch.

The Suns clearly just needed a few weeks to settle into a rhythm though, considering the Suns boast records of 67-17 SU and 47-37 ATS since their opening skid, while ranking fifth in the league in scoring and third in offensive efficiency (114.6 OPPG, 1.117 OE); and on the flipside, ranking tenth in points allowed and third in defensive efficiency (107.5 DPPG, 1.048 DE).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Head-to-Head

The Suns swept a three-game regular-season set against Dallas last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 213.7 PPG.

Phoenix also went 3-0 SU against Dallas this season, with two matchups staying under the total at an average of 206.5 PPG, while the other barely went over with a score of 112-104 (O 212).

However, the recent history between these teams should be taken with a grain of salt, considering Luka Doncic was sidelined for two of those affairs.

Key Players to Watch

• DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
• DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
• PHX: Devin Booker - SG (26.8 PPG, 5 REB, 4.8 AST)
• PHX: Chris Paul - PG (14.7 PPG, 4.4 REB, 10.8 AST)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Conclusion

After knocking off the Jazz in surprisingly comfortable fashion to open the postseason, the Mavericks hit the road Monday’s second-round series-opener as six-point underdogs against the Suns at Footprint Center, which is roughly the same spread set as Game 1 of their previous series against Utah (DAL +5.5).

I’ll take the under here, as the Suns averaged 109 OPPG and allowed 104.5 DPPG across last year’s impressive postseason campaign, setting the stage for a particularly low-scoring series against a Mavs’ squad that surrendered just 104.3 DPPG during this year’s regular season – and 99 DPPG during their first-round playoff matchup against Utah.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Phoenix Suns Betting Trends

• The Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
• The Suns are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last six Mavs' games.
• The total has gone OVER in four of the last five Suns' games.
• The Mavericks are 8-2 SU in their last ten games.
• The Suns are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 matchups against Dallas.
• The Mavericks are 0-9 SU in their last nine matchups against Phoenix.

Betting On The 2022 NBA Playoffs

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson