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Last Updated May 03, 2022, 18:36 PM

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

Second Round NBA Playoff action will resume on Monday night with Game 1 between Eastern Conference foes as the Philadelphia 76ers get set to take on the Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Heat 112, Sixers 106

Best Bets

Over 208.5 (-110) at Caesars

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.

However, Philadelphia quickly flipped the script with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering the Sixers have allowed just 107.3 DPPG across their latest 39-17 SU stretch, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game December skid (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way to the second round of the postseason, considering the Heat boast impressive records of 42-19 SU and 34-26-1 ATS across their last 61 games, while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the over here, as the total went under in 9-of-11 first-round playoff matchups containing either of these teams, however, that certainly wasn’t due to a shortage in scoring by the Sixers (111.5 OPPG) or Heat (109.2 OPPG) – and Joel Embiid’s absence limits Philadelphia defensively, which should lead to a relatively fast-paced Game 1.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis

  • SU: 55-33
  • ATS: 42-45-1
  • O/U: 41-45-2

After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers went 16-16 SU across their first 32 games, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG across that window.

Embiid single-handedly carried the Sixers through the winter months though, considering Philadelphia closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by Embiid averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK during that timeframe.

Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so all the pressure falls on James Harden now, considering Philly acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline, and he’s averaging just 21 PPG and 10.5 AST across the Sixers’ 20-10 SU stretch since his debut – along with 19 PPG and 10.2 AST across his first six postseason outings against Toronto.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 57-30
  • ATS: 49-37-1
  • O/U: 48-38-1

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish, the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The trade worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

The depth Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed in December though, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. However, Depth hasn’t been much of an issue for them recently, highlighted by Miami’s 42-19 SU run heading into Monday’s series-opener.

The Sixers are 1-5 SU in their last six road games against Miami. (Getty Images)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG – while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).

However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this year, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).

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Key Players to Watch

  • PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)
  • PHI: Tyrese Maxey - SG (17.5 PPG, 3.2 REB, 4.3 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After losing Embiid to an orbital fracture during their blowout victory over Toronto in Game 6 this past Thursday (W, 132-97), the Sixers hit the road for Monday’s series-opener as eight-point underdogs against the Heat at FTX Arena, marking the steepest spread laid against Philadelphia since matching up with Miami back on March 21st (PHI +8).

I’ll take the over here, as low totals within OU 208’s range typically get set for matchups containing two top-tier defenses, and Philly doesn’t quite fit that narrative without Embiid’s presence, so expect the Sixers to play towards the strengths of Tyrese Maxey and Harden in Game 1, and try to outrun Miami on the fastbreak.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Sixers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Sixers' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five straight Heat' games.
  • The Sixers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between the Heat and Sixers.
  • The Sixers are 1-5 SU in their last six road games against Miami.

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