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May 03, 2022

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Wednesday night with a critical Game 2 between the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat. Coverage begins from FTX Arena in Miami at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Heat 108, Sixers 104

Best Bets

Sixers +9 (-110) at FanDuel

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Predictions

After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to the season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.

However, Philadelphia promptly flipped the script with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering the Sixers are allowing just 107.3 DPPG across their latest 39-18 SU stretch, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game December skid (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), Miami has carried that same momentum all the way to the second round of the postseason, considering the Heat boast impressive records of 43-19 SU and 35-26-1 ATS across their last 62 games – while ranking fifth in the league in defensive efficiency and tenth in offensive efficiency during that timeframe (1.102 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll take the points with Philly here, as Game 1 between these teams was highly competitive for two-and-a-half quarters of action, highlighted by the Sixers building a five-point lead in the opening minutes of the second half, before ultimately getting beat by 19 the rest of the way.

However, Wednesday’s matchup should be far more competitive given some slight regression from Tyler Herro (25 PTS, 9-17 FG) and Bam Adebayo (24 PTS, 8-10 FG) – and slight improvement from James Harden (16 PTS, 5-13 FG) and Tyrese Maxey (19 PTS, 6-15 FG).

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Odds

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Resources

Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis

  • SU: 55-34
  • ATS: 41-46-2
  • O/U: 40-46-3

After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers went 16-16 SU across their first 32 games, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG across that window.

Embiid single-handedly carried Philadelphia through the winter months though, considering the Sixers closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by their big man averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK during that timeframe.

Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so the bulk of the pressure falls on Harden now, considering Philly acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline, and he’s averaging just 21 PPG and 10.5 AST across their 20-11 SU stretch since his debut, along with 18.6 PPG and 9.4 AST across his first seven postseason outings.

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 58-30
  • ATS: 50-37-1
  • O/U: 49-39

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), Miami made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

The trade worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

The depth Miami sacrificed to acquire Lowry was briefly exposed in December though, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled Miami into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid. However, depth wasn’t much of a problem for them during the back-half of the season, considering the Heat enter Wednesday’s Game 2 following SU victories in 43 of their last 62 matchups.

The Sixers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games. (Getty Images)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Head-to-Head

Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG, while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).

However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).

Miami broke the tie with a commanding home victory in Monday’s series-opener though, which also stayed comfortably under the number with a score of 106-92 (U 210.5).

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Key Players to Watch

  • PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)
  • PHI: Tyrese Maxey - SG (17.5 PPG, 3.2 REB, 4.3 AST)
  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Bam Adebayo - C (19.1 PPG, 10.1 REB, 3.4 AST)

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Conclusion

After stomping Philly by 14 PTS in Monday’s series-opener (W, 106-92), the Heat enter Wednesday’s second matchup as nine-point home favorites over the Sixers at FTX Arena, which is slightly heavier than the number Miami was favored by in Game 1 (MIA -7.5).

I’ll take the points with Philly here, as Game 1 between these teams stayed relatively competitive despite the Sixers posting dismal numbers from the field (43% FG and 18% 3FG); and while Philly’s offensive struggles seem to primarily stem from Embiid’s absence, I still expect them to improve upon those marks significantly in Game 2, and at the very least, make it a competitive ballgame.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat Betting Trends

  • The Sixers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games.
  • The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six Sixers' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six straight Heat' games.
  • The Sixers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the last six matchups between the Heat and Sixers.
  • The Sixers are 3-6 ATS in their last nine matchups against Miami.

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