Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions, Picks, Odds

12 minute read

The Western Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Wednesday night with a critical Game 5 showdown between the Golden State Warriors and Memphis Grizzlies. Coverage begins from FedExForum in downtown Memphis at 9:30 p.m. ET.

Updated on 05/10/2024

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Score Prediction

Warriors 110, Grizzlies 105

Best Bets

Under 220.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Memphis posted a surprisingly mediocre start to the season, as the Grizzlies kicked things off with a lackluster 9-10 SU and 10-9 ATS skid, with nine of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Memphis has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since that opening skid, considering the Grizzlies enter Wednesday’s Game 5 riding an impressive 52-21 SU and 48-24-1 ATS run, while averaging 116.7 OPPG and allowing just 108.1 DPPG during that timeframe.

I’ll take the under here, as the total has gone over in 8-of-14 postseason matchups containing either of these teams, which includes Golden State’s wins in Games 1 and 3 of this series; however, the pace of this matchup should continue to slow down between the Warriors’ second-ranked defense (105.8 DPPG, 1.039 DE) and the Grizzlies’ fourth-ranked defense (110.1 DPPG, 1.053 DE).

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Odds

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Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Resources

Matchup: Pacific vs. Southwest
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Venue: FedExForum
Location: Memphis, TN
TV-Time: TNT - 9:30 p.m. ET
Injury Report
NBA Playoff Betting Central

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

SU: 59-31
ATS: 45-42-4
O/U: 41-48-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State quickly bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

The Warriors’ success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering Golden State enters Game 5 riding a relatively pedestrian 42-27 SU and 30-36-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.2 DPPG across that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 115.1 OPPG across their 41 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Analysis

SU: 61-31
ATS: 58-33-1
O/U: 47-44-1

After finishing eighth in the West with a record of 38-34 SU last year, Memphis initially flew under the radar by posting a 9-10 SU start to this season, which inevitably left the Grizzlies tagged as underdogs in seven-of-ten matchups to open December; however, Memphis quickly stole the spotlight with a trio of upset victories and a sturdy 7-3 SU record across that stretch.

Memphis has been scorching hot since that point though, considering the Grizzlies have tallied 117 OPPG and allowed just 108.2 DPPG across their current 52-21 SU run, which includes lofty averages of 112 OPPG and 111.6 across ten postseason matchups.

**The total has gone UNDER in ten of the last 15 matchups between Memphis and Golden State. (Getty Images)**

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Head-to-Head

The Warriors won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Memphis last year, with all three contests staying under the total at an average of 215.7 PPG, before ultimately meeting again in the Play-In Tournament, which resulted in a thrilling overtime victory for the Grizzlies (117-112 OT, O 221).

However, Memphis went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those meetings staying well under the total at an average of 211.5 PPG, while the other two barely cashed over tickets at an average of 220.5 PPG.

The first two matchups of this series in Memphis were a wild ride though, as Golden State escaped FedExForum with a thrilling road win in Game 1 (117-116, O 224), while Game 2 resulted in a narrow home victory for the Grizzlies (106-101, U 228).

Unfortunately, Ja Morant exited the fourth quarter of Game 3 with a knee injury, which enabled Golden State to run away with a 30-point home victory down the stretch of Saturday’s affair (142-112, O 225.5).

However, Monday's contest was incredibly competitive despite the absence of Morant, as the Warriors escaped Chase Center with a thrilling three-point victory in Game 4 (101-98, U 223).

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Key Players to Watch

GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
MEM: Dillon Brooks - SG (18.4 PPG, 3.2 REB, 2.8 AST)
MEM: Desmond Bane - SF (18.2 PPG, 4.4 REB, 2.7 AST)

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-1 series lead with a thrilling home victory in Game 4 (W, 101-98), the Warriors hit the road for Wednesday’s fifth matchup as three-point favorites over the Grizzlies at FedExForum, which is slightly heavier than the number Golden State was favored by in Games 1 and 2.

I’ll take the under here, as the Warriors and Grizzlies have comfortably paced the league in scoring since the start of the postseason, with Golden State currently averaging 116.8 OPPG across nine playoff matchups and Memphis averaging 112 OPPG across ten playoff matchups; however, the pace of this series should ultimately slow down between a Warriors squad that’s held its opponents to 105.8 DPPG throughout the year, and a Grizzlies squad that’s allowed just 110.1 DPPG.

Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies Betting Trends

The Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
The Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the last ten Warriors' games.
The total has gone UNDER in six of the last nine Grizzlies' games.
The Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last six matchups against Golden State.
The total has gone UNDER in ten of the last 15 matchups between Memphis and Golden State.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson