Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Odds, Picks

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The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Wednesday night with a pivotal fifth matchup between the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics. Coverage begins from Boston’s TD Garden at 7:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

Score Prediction

Bucks 103, Celtics 101

Best Bets

Under 214.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Predictions

After finishing seventh in the East with a record of 36-36 SU last year, Boston initially sustained that same underwhelming pace with a mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Boston has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-January, considering the Celtics have surrendered just 103.3 DPPG across their latest 42-13 SU run, which includes an average of 109 DPPG during their four-game sweep of Brooklyn in the previous round – and 99.5 DPPG to Milwaukee in the first four matchups of this series.

On the other hand, Milwaukee posted a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Bucks kicked things off with a lackluster 6-8 SU and ATS skid, with four of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

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However, Milwaukee has quietly dominated since that brief opening skid, considering the Bucks have yielded lofty averages of 116.4 OPPG and 111.7 DPPG across their latest 52-26 SU stretch, despite averaging just 105.2 OPPG across nine postseason matchups.

I’ll take the under here, as the first three matchups of this series went under the total at an average of 196.3 PPG, and while Game 4 somewhat broke that narrative with a faster-paced affair (116-108, O 213.5); I still expect to see a hard-fought defensive battle in Game 5 between a Bucks squad that’s allowed 101 PTS or less in six of nine playoff contests (99 DPPG), and a Celtics squad that’s smothered its opponents to 102 DPPG at home this postseason.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds

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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Resources

Matchup: Central vs. Atlantic
Date: Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Venue: TD Garden
Location: Boston, MA
TV-Time: TNT - 7:00 p.m. ET
Injury Report
NBA Playoff Betting Central

Milwaukee Bucks Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 57-34
ATS: 43-47-1
O/U: 44-47

After finishing with the best record in the East in two of the last three seasons, Milwaukee’s rough start was somewhat of a head-scratcher, considering the Bucks’ compiled a record of 162-65 SU across the previous three regular seasons, only to open this season with a lackluster 6-8 SU skid.

Milwaukee has played excellent, when healthy, since mid-November though, considering the Bucks enter Wednesday’s Game 5 riding a sturdy 52-26 SU stretch, with nearly a third of those losses coming in the absence of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (8).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

SU: 57-33
ATS: 50-38-2
O/U: 43-45-2

After last year’s mediocre 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly lackluster start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has dominated defensively since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Wednesday’s contest riding an impressive 42-13 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 29 of those contests (113.2 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 22 of them (103.4 DPPG).

**The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 matchups against Milwaukee. (Getty Images)**

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Head-to-Head

The Celtics won two of three regular-season matchups against Milwaukee last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at an average of 239.7 PPG.

However, Boston and Milwaukee split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with three of those matchups cruising over the total at an average of 237.7 PPG, while the other stayed under with a score of 117-103 (U 223).

Far more defense was played in the first three matchups of this series though, considering Milwaukee escaped Fiserv Forum with a narrow 103-101 victory in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead and cash a third straight under result; however, Boston quickly evened with a high-scoring road win in Game 4 (116-108, O 213.5).

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Key Players to Watch

MIL: Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF (29.9 PPG, 11.6 REB, 5.8 AST)
MIL: Jrue Holiday - PG (18.3 PPG, 4.5 REB, 6.8 AST)
BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Conclusion

After evening the series with a gutsy road win in Game 4 on Monday night (116-108, O 213.5), the Celtics return home for Wednesday’s fifth contest as six-point favorites over the Bucks at TD Garden, which is a slight climb up the ladder from the number Boston was favored by in Games 1 and 2 (BOS -4.5).

I’ll take the under here, as the first three matchups of this series stayed comfortably under the total at an average of 196.3 PPG, and while Game 4 bred a slightly different result, I still expect this series to trend in the opposite direction between a Bucks squad that’s allowed just 99 DPPG across nin postseason contests, and a Celtics squad that’s surrendered 104.3 DPPG across eight playoff matchups.

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics Betting Trends

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last nine Bucks' games.
The Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
The Bucks are 5-2 SU in their last seven games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven Celtics' games.
The Bucks are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 matchups against Boston.
The total has gone OVER in nine of the last 13 matchups between Boston and Milwaukee.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson