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May 11, 2022

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions, Picks, Odds

The Eastern Conference Semi-Finals will resume on Thursday night with a possible elimination game between the Miami Heat and Philadelphia 76ers. Game 6 coverage begins from Wells Fargo Center at 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.

Score Prediction

Sixers 109, Heat 101

Best Bets

Sixers -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Predictions

After earning the top spot in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia stumbled out to a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers opened with a lackluster 16-16 SU and 13-18-1 ATS stretch, while averaging just 105.4 OPPG during that span.

However, Philly quickly turned things around with a string of excellent defensive efforts, considering the Sixers have allowed just 107 DPPG across their latest 41-19 SU run, which includes an average of 103.2 DPPG in their first-round playoff series against Toronto – and 103 DPPG across their first four matchups against Miami.

On the other hand, Miami dominated to open the season, as the Heat kicked things off with a sturdy 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with nine of those SU victories coming by 10+ PTS.

Aside from a brief nine-game skid in December (3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS), the Heat have carried that same momentum all the way through the early stages of the postseason, considering Miami enters Game 6 riding an impressive 45-21 SU and 37-28-1 ATS stretch, while finishing up the year ranked fourth in defensive efficiency and eighth in offensive efficiency (1.102 OE, 1.052 DE).

I’ll back Philly here, as the Sixers have looked like a completely different squad at home versus on the road in this series, highlighted by Doc Rivers’ squad averaging 107.5 OPPG on 51% FG and 48% 3FG across home victories in Games 3 and 4, while scoring just 93.3 OPPG on 42% FG and 24% 3FG during road losses in Games 1, 2, and 5; and while Miami seemed to assert its dominance in Game 5 this past Tuesday (120-85), I still think Philly will bounce back at home in Game 6 and force a seventh matchup.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Odds

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Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Resources

Miami Heat Betting Analysis

  • SU: 60-32
  • ATS: 52-39-1
  • O/U: 51-41

After last year’s underwhelming sixth-place finish (40-32 SU), the Heat made some bold offseason acquisitions to better suit needs at the offensive end, primarily highlighted by the acquisition of six-time All-Star Kyle Lowry.

Everything worked perfectly at first, as Miami kicked off the season with an impressive 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS stretch, with all but two of those SU victories coming by double-digits.

However, the depth Miami sacrificed was briefly exposed towards the midway point of the season, as a revolving door of health issues spiraled the Heat into a brief 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS skid.

 Depth hasn’t been much of a concern for them recently though, considering Miami has posted SU victories in 45 of its last 66 matchups, which includes sturdy postseason records of 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS, despite Lowry missing half of those contests (5).

Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis

  • SU: 57-36
  • ATS: 43-48-2
  • O/U: 42-48-3

After finishing first in the East with a record of 49-23 SU last year, Philadelphia posted a surprisingly slow start to this season, as the Sixers averaged just 105.4 OPPG across their lackluster 16-16 SU stretch to kick off their campaign.

However, Joel Embiid single-handedly carried them through the regular-season finish line, considering Philly closed the regular season with a solid 35-15 SU and 25-24-1 ATS run, propelled by the five-time All-Star averaging 32.5 PPG, 11.6 REB, 4.2 AST, and 1.5 BLK across that timeframe.

Unfortunately, Embiid fractured his orbital bone in Game 6 against the Raptors, so most of the pressure fell on James Harden in Games 1 and 2 of this series, considering the Sixers acquired the three-time scoring champ from Brooklyn at the trade deadline and hasn’t quite lived up to the hype thus far (21 PPG, 40.2% FG, 32.6% 3FG).

Embiid made his highly anticipated return in Game 3 though, and Philadelphia immediately returned to form, as the Sixers ran away with a pair of comfortable victories at Wells Fargo Center in Games 3 and 4, despite Embiid contributing just 21 PPG on 48% FG across those matchups.

Game 5 in Miami, however, was a completely different story, as Miami ran away with a triumphant 35-point victory while shooting 54% from the field and 39% from three-point range (W, 120-85).

The Sixers are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Miami. (Getty Images)

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Head-to-Head

Philadelphia won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Miami last year, with both Sixers’ victories soaring over the total at a lofty average of 252 PPG, while Miami’s lone win stayed under with a score of 106-94 (U 218).

However, Miami and Philly split a four-game set 2-2 SU this season, with their first three matchups staying under the number at an average of 195 PPG, while their final regular-season meeting cruised over with a score of 113-106 (O 210.5).

Miami dominated the first two matchups of this series though, with Game 1 staying comfortably under the number at a score of 106-92 (U 210.5), while Game 2 cruised over at 119-103 (O, 208.5).

In Games 3 and 4, however, the Sixers flipped the script by posting a pair of assertive home victories with Embiid back in action, despite Philly’s big man contributing just 21 PPG on 48% FG to the winning efforts.

The script flipped back towards Miami in Game 5 though, as the Heat posted a commanding 35-point home victory to take a 3-2 series lead on Tuesday night (120-85, U 208.5).

Key Players to Watch

  • MIA: Jimmy Butler - SF (21.4 PPG, 5.9 REB, 5.5 AST)
  • MIA: Tyler Herro - SG (20.7 PPG, 5 REB, 4 AST)
  • PHI: Joel Embiid - C (30.6 PPG, 11.7 REB, 4.2 AST)
  • PHI: James Harden - PG (22 PPG, 7.7 REB, 10.3 AST)

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 series lead with a dominant home effort in Game 5 this past Tuesday (W, 120-85), the Heat hit the road for Thursday’s sixth matchup as two-point underdogs against the Sixers at Wells Fargo Center, which is roughly the same number Philly was favored by at home in Games 3 and 4.

I’ll back Philly here, as Miami has played awful on the road in this series outside of Jimmy Butler (36.5 PPG, 60% FG), considering the Heat averaged just 195 OPPG on 40% FG across their pair of road losses in Games 3 and 4; and while the Sixers clearly stood no match for Miami in their previous affair, I still expect them to bounce back at home this Thursday and force Game 7.

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers Betting Trends

  • The Sixers are 7-1 SU in their last eight home games.
  • The Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last ten Sixers' games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last ten Heat' games.
  • The Sixers are 5-1 SU in their last six home games against Miami.
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last ten matchups between the Heat and Sixers.

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