Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The Western Conference Finals begin on Wednesday night with a blockbuster Game 1 showdown between the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 115, Mavericks 104

Best Bets

Warriors -5 (-110) at Caesars

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant in the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors closed the regular season with a relatively pedestrian 35-25 SU and 26-31-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

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On the other hand, Dallas posted a surprisingly pedestrian start to the season, as the Mavericks kicked things off with a frustrating 16-18 SU and 13-21 ATS skid, with five of those SU losses coming in matchups they were favored in.

However, Dallas has successfully ridden the coattail of its defense since that opening skid, considering the Mavericks have surrendered just 103.7 DPPG across their latest 44-17 SU and 40-21 ATS stretch, which includes an average of 101.9 DPPG in 13 playoff matchups.

I’ll back Golden State here, as Dallas is 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS on the road this postseason, while averaging just 107 OPPG on 46% FG across those seven contests, likely serving as an unfavorable road matchup against a Warriors squad that’s 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home since the start of the playoffs (117.3 OPPG, 49% FG).

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

• Matchup: Southwest vs Pacific
• Date: Wednesday, May 18, 2022
• Venue: Chase Center
• Location: San Francisco, CA
• TV-Time: TNT - 9:00 p.m. ET
• Injury Report
• NBA Playoff Betting Central

Dallas Mavericks Betting Analysis

• SU: 60-35
• ATS: 55-39-1
• O/U: 36-58-1

After a disappointing first-round exit from last year’s playoffs, Dallas appeared destined for a similar fate in the early stages of this season, as the Mavs’ opened with a head-scratching 16-18 and 13-21 ATS stretch, with ten of those losses coming by seven points or more.

However, Dallas flipped the script by playing excellent defense during the back-half of the season, considering the Mavs’ enter Tuesday’s series-opener riding an impressive 44-17 SU stretch, despite averaging just 109.3 OPPG during that timeframe.

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

• SU: 60-32
• ATS: 46-43-4
• O/U: 42-49-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State immediately bounced back wearing a chip on its shoulder to open this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State’s success has primarily come through defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Tuesday riding a relatively bumpy 43-28 SU and 31-37-3 ATS stretch, while holding their opponents to just 108.4 DPPG across that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging roughly 114.5 OPPG across their 43 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Mavericks won two-of-three regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with all three contests soaring over the total at a lofty average of 255 PPG.

Dallas also went 3-1 SU against Golden State this season, with two of those matchups staying under the total at an average of 194.5 PPG, while the other two cruised over at 228.5 PPG.

Key Players to Watch

• DAL: Luka Doncic - PG (28.4 PPG, 9.1 REB, 8.7 AST)
• DAL: Jalen Brunson - PG (16.3 PPG, 3.9 REB, 4.8 AST)
• GSW: Jordan Poole - SG (18.5 PPG, 3.4 REB, 4 AST)
• GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After posting a dominant Game 7 victory in Phoenix this past Sunday (W, 123-90), the Mavericks hit the road again for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as five-point underdogs against the Warriors at Chase Center, which is slightly shorter than the number Golden State was favored by the previous round against Memphis (GSW -7).

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Warriors are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this postseason, while averaging 117.3 OPPG on 49% FG and 40% 3FG across those six contests, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Mavs’ squad that’s 3-4 SU on the road since the start of the playoffs.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five Mavericks' games.
• The total has gone OVER in eight of the last 12 Warriors' games.
• The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last five matchups against Golden State.
• The Warriors are 1-5 SU in their last six matchups against Dallas.
• The Warriors are 8-0 SU in their last eight home games.
• The total has gone OVER in 12 of the last 16 matchups between the Warriors and Mavericks.

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson