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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
11 minute read

The NBA Finals will begin on Thursday night with a heavyweight Game 1 showdown between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. Coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 114, Celtics 106

Best Bets

Warriors -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Updated on 04/26/2024
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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by 10+ PTS.

However, Golden State was far less dominant without the combined presence of Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Thursday’s contest riding a relatively pedestrian 47-29 SU and 35-38-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

On the other hand, Boston stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with ten of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

The Celtics have dominated defensively since mid-January though, considering Boston is allowing just 102.9 DPPG across its latest 48-17 SU run, which includes an average of 101.8 DPPG in the first two postseason rounds against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 99.7 DPPG in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Celtics have fared surprisingly well in hostile territory throughout these playoffs, considering Boston is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS across nine road matchups (46% FG, 36% 3FG); however, that trend should ultimately dwindle against a Warriors squad that’s a perfect 9-0 SU at home this postseason (50% FG, 41% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 63-37
  • ATS: 56-42-2
  • O/U: 48-50-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Thursday’s series-opener riding an impressive 48-17 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 30 of those contests (111.8 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 27 of them (102.9 DPPG).

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 64-33
  • ATS: 50-44-4
  • O/U: 45-51-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State clearly had a point to prove during the early stages of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two SU losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Thursday’s contest riding a relatively bumpy 47-29 SU and 35-38-3 ATS stretch, while smothering their opponents to 108.4 DPPG during that span.

Golden State’s mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by the Warriors averaging 114.6 OPPG across their 48 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury (36-24 SU).

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last ten matchups between Boston and Golden State. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Celtics won both regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with their first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-107 (U 227), while the second cruised over at 119-114 (O 226).

However, these teams split a two-game set 1-1 SU this season, with Golden State outgunning Boston for a relatively fast-paced home victory in their first meeting (111-107, O 216), which the Celtics countered with a commanding home win of their own in the second matchup (110-88, U 220).

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After knocking off the Heat in Sunday’s thrilling Game 7 in Miami (W, 100-96), the Celtics hit the road for Game 1 of the NBA Finals as 3.5-point underdogs against the Warriors at Chase Center, which marks the shortest spread favoring Golden State at home since the start of the playoffs.

I’ll back Golden State here, as the Warriors are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS at home since the start of the playoffs, while averaging 118 OPPG on 50% FG and 41% 3FG across those nine contests, likely presenting an uphill battle for a Celtics squad that’s averaging just 109 OPPG on 46% FG and 36% 3FG on the road this postseason.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Celtics are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Warriors are 9-0 SU in their last nine home games.
  • The Celtics are 8-1 ATS in their last nine road games.
  • The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last ten matchups against Golden State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last ten matchups between Boston and Golden State.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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