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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
13 minute read

The NBA Finals will resume on Monday night with a pivotal fifth matchup between the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors. Game 5 coverage begins from Chase Center in San Francisco at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Warriors 110, Celtics 101

Best Bets

Warriors -3.5 (-110) at BetMGM

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by double-digits.

However, Golden State was far less dominant during separate absences of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Monday riding a relatively pedestrian 49-31 SU and 37-40-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

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On the other hand, Boston stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with half of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

Boston has dominated the defensive end since mid-January though, considering the Celtics are allowing just 102.9 DPPG across their current 50-19 SU stretch, which includes an average of 102 DPPG in the first two rounds of the postseason against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 100 DPPG in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

I’ll back the Warriors to cover here, as Golden State has been a completely different squad at home versus on the road this postseason, with the Warriors averaging 116 OPPG on 49% FG and 41% 3FG across 11 home matchups (10-1 SU), compared to 109 OPPG on 47% FG and 37% 3FG across nine road matchups (4-5 SU); and while Boston has fared particularly well in hostile territory during these playoffs (8-3 SU), the clear anomaly in this series was Boston’s road win in Game 1 propelled by Al Horford, Derrick White, and Marcus Smart's combined 65 PTS on 65% FG, which I don’t see happening again.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 65-39
  • ATS: 58-44-2
  • O/U: 50-52-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Monday’s matchup riding an impressive 50-19 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 31 of those contests (111 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 27 of them (103 DPPG).

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 66-35
  • ATS: 52-46-4
  • O/U: 47-53-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State clearly had a point to prove in the early stages of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two SU losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 5 riding a relatively bumpy 49-31 SU and 37-40-3 ATS stretch, while smothering their opponents to 108.4 DPPG during that span.

The Warriors’ mantra has slightly altered since the return of Klay Thompson though, highlighted by Golden State averaging 114.5 OPPG across 62 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury (37-25 SU).

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the last 17 matchups between Boston and Golden State. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Celtics won both regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with their first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-107 (U 227), while the second cruised over at 119-114 (O 226).

However, these teams split a two-game set 1-1 SU this season, with Golden State outgunning the Celtics for a relatively fast-paced home victory in their first meeting (111-107, O 216), which Boston countered with a commanding home win of its own in their second meeting (110-88, U 220).

Similarly, the first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster, as Boston trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter of Game 1 but ended up winning the contest by 12 PTS (120-108, O 214); while Golden State posted a double-digit victory of its own in Game 2 by holding Boston to 88 PTS on 38% FG throughout Sunday’s affair (107-88, U 213).

In Game 3, Boston bounced back with a double-digit home victory propelled by Smart and Jaylen Brown scoring 24+ PTS apiece on a combined 17-33 from the field and 7-15 from three-point range (52% FG, 47% 3FG); despite the remaining Celtics shooting just 46% FG and 30% FG in Wednesday’s contest (116-100, O 214).

The Warriors regained homecourt advantage with relative ease in Game 4 though, as Curry exploded for 43 PTS on 14-26 FG and 7-14 3FG en route to a double-digit road victory for Golden State; while as a unit, Boston shot just 40% from the field, which is primarily attributed to Smart and Jayson Tatum shooting a combined 15-41 FG and 7-17 3FG in Friday’s loss (37% FG, 41% 3FG).

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Key Players to Watch

  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)
  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After evening the series at 2-2 with a gutsy road victory in Game 4 this past Friday (W, 107-97), the Warriors return home for Monday’s fifth matchup as four-point favorites over the Celtics at Chase Center, which is roughly the same number Golden State was favored by in Game 1 (BOS +3.5).

I’ll back Golden State to cover here, as the Warriors are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS at home this postseason, while averaging 116.1 OPPG on 49% FG and 41% 3FG across those 11 contests; likely presenting an uphill battle for a Celtics squad that’s averaging just 107.7 OPPG 45% FG and 37% 3FG on the road since the start of the playoffs.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games.
  • The Celtics are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games.
  • The Warriors are 12-1 SU in their last 13 home games.
  • The Celtics are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road games.
  • The Celtics are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Golden State.
  • The Warriors are 3-8 SU in their last 11 matchups against Boston.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Golden State's last nine home games against Boston.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the last 17 matchups between Boston and Golden State.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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