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Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
10 minute read

The NBA Finals will resume on Thursday night with what could potentially be the sixth and final matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics. Game 6 coverage begins from TD Garden in Boston at 9:00 p.m. ET on ABC.

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Score Prediction

Celtics 109, Warriors 102

Best Bets

Celtics -3.5 (-110) at Caesars

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Predictions

After finishing ninth in the West with a record of 39-33 SU last year, Golden State immediately bounced back with a triumphant start to this season, as the Warriors opened with a red-hot 18-3 SU and 15-5-1 ATS run, with 14 of those victories coming by double-digits.

However, Golden State was far less dominant without the combined presence of Steph Curry and Draymond Green, considering the Warriors enter Thursday riding a relatively pedestrian 50-31 SU and 38-40-3 ATS stretch, with over half of those SU losses coming in the absence of Curry or Green (19).

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On the other hand, Boston stumbled out to a surprisingly poor start to the season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU and ATS skid, with half of those SU losses coming by 10+ PTS.

Boston has dominated the defensive end since mid-January though, considering the Celtics are allowing just 102.8 DPPG across their current 50-20 SU stretch, which includes an average of 102 DPPG in the first two rounds of the postseason against Brooklyn and Milwaukee; and 100 DPPG in the Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

I’ll back Boston to cover here, as the Warriors benefited enormously from Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Gary Payton, and Jordan Poole combining for 76 PTS on 55% FG during their Game 5 victory; and while Curry scored just 16 PTS in Monday’s affair (7-22 FG), we'll probably see a larger uptick in production from the Celtics in Game 6 after shooting just 41% FG and turning the ball over 18 times in their previous affair (34% 3FG).

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds

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Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Resources

Golden State Warriors Betting Analysis

  • SU: 67-35
  • ATS: 53-46-4
  • O/U: 47-54-2

After last year’s lackluster 39-33 SU showing, Golden State clearly had a point to prove in the early stages of this season, as the Warriors kicked things off with SU victories in 18 of their first 20 games, with their only two SU losses across that window coming by slim margins of four points or less.

Golden State has admirably ridden the coattail of its defense since mid-December though, considering the Warriors enter Game 6 riding a relatively bumpy 50-31 SU and 38-40-3 ATS stretch, while smothering their opponents to 108.2 DPPG during that span.

The Warriors’ mantra has slightly altered since the return of Thompson though, highlighted by Golden State averaging 114.3 OPPG across 63 matchups since the five-time All-Star’s return from injury (38-25 SU).

Boston Celtics Betting Analysis

  • SU: 65-40
  • ATS: 58-45-2
  • O/U: 50-53-2

After last year’s underwhelming 36-36 SU showing, Boston stumbled out a similarly mediocre start to this season, as the Celtics opened with a frustrating 15-20 SU skid, despite getting tagged as favorites in 22 of those contests.

However, Boston has arguably been the hottest team in basketball since the midway point of the season, considering the Celtics enter Thursday’s matchup riding an impressive 50-20 SU stretch, while scoring 114+ PTS in 31 of those contests (110 OPPG) and allowing 100 PTS or less in 27 of them (103 DPPG).

The Celtics are 13-7 SU in their last 20 home games. (Getty Images)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Head-to-Head

The Celtics won both regular-season matchups against Golden State last year, with their first meeting staying under the total at a score of 111-107 (U 227), while the second cruised over at 119-114 (O 226).

However, these teams split a two-game set 1-1 SU this season, with Golden State outgunning the Celtics for a relatively fast-paced home victory in their first meeting (111-107, O 216), which Boston countered with a commanding home win of its own in their second meeting (110-88, U 220).

Similarly, the first two matchups of this series were quite the rollercoaster, as Boston trailed by double-digits in the fourth quarter of Game 1 but ended up winning the contest by 12 PTS (120-108, O 214); while Golden State posted a double-digit victory of its own in Game 2 by holding Boston to 88 PTS on 38% FG throughout Sunday’s affair (107-88, U 213).

In Game 3, Boston bounced back with a double-digit home victory propelled by Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown scoring 24+ PTS apiece on a combined 17-33 from the field and 7-15 from three-point range (52% FG, 47% 3FG); despite the remaining Celtics shooting just 46% FG and 30% FG in Wednesday’s contest (116-100, O 214).

The Warriors regained homecourt advantage in Game 4 with relative ease though, as Curry exploded for 43 PTS on 14-26 FG and 7-14 3FG en route to a double-digit road victory for Golden State; while as a unit, Boston shot just 40% from the field, which is primarily attributed to Smart and Jayson Tatum shooting a combined 15-41 from the field and 7-17 from three-point land in Friday’s loss (37% FG, 41% 3FG).

Curry struggled miserably in Game 5 (16 PTS, 7-22 FG, 0-9 3FG), however, Golden State still pulled away with a double-digit victory thanks to the rest of the Warriors’ supporting cast shooting 52% FG in Monday's contest (104-94, U 212).

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Key Players to Watch

  • GSW: Steph Curry - PG (25.5 PPG, 5.2 REB, 6.3 AST)
  • GSW: Klay Thompson - SG (20.4 PPG, 3.9 REB, 2.8 AST)
  • BOS: Jayson Tatum - SF (26.9 PPG, 8 REB, 4.4 AST)
  • BOS: Jaylen Brown - SG (23.6 PPG, 6.1 REB, 3.5 AST)

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Conclusion

After taking a 3-2 series lead with a double-digit road victory in Game 5 (W, 104-94), the Warriors hit the road for Game 6 of the NBA Finals as four-point underdogs against Boston at TD Garden, which is roughly the same number the Celtics were favored by in their first two home matchups of this series (BOS -3.5).

I’ll back Boston to cover here, as Golden State has been a completely different squad at home versus on the road this postseason, with the Warriors averaging 115 OPPG on 49% FG and 39% 3FG across 12 home playoff matchups (11-1 SU, 9-3- ATS), compared to 109 OPPG on 47% FG and 35% 3FG in nine road matchups (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS); and while Boston hasn’t fared particularly well at TD Garden throughout these playoffs (4-5 SU, 10-1 ATS), I still expect them to bounce back on the brink of elimination at home in Game 6.

Boston Celtics vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Trends

  • The Warriors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
  • The Celtics are 13-7 SU in their last 20 home games.
  • The Warriors are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games.
  • The Celtics are 8-4 SU in their last 12 matchups against Golden State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of Boston's last 12 home games against Golden State.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the last 18 matchups between Boston and Golden State.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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