Last Updated Sep 06, 2022, 7:16 PM
NFL 2022 Season Prop Picks, Predictions, Best Bets
Prop Betting Expert
Prop betting expert Stuart Durst gives his top prop bets to consider for the 2022 NFL season, which begins on Thursday, Sept. 8 with the Bills taking on the Rams. Check out his top plays for the upcoming season.
- Derek Carr (LVR) Over 4,400.5 Passing Yards
- Juju Smith-Schuster (KNC) Over 750.5 Receiving Yards
- Trey Lance (SFO) Over 500.5 Rushing Yards
- Elijah Mitchell (SFO) Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
- Justin Jefferson (MIN) Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
Derek Carr (LVR) Over 4,400.5 Passing Yards
While Carr spends most of his career in the low 4000’s range, he finally exploded on the scene last season posting 4,804 passing yards. Despite his breakout season, Carr was still working with average weapons as his favorite target Darren Waller only played 11 games while racking up 665 receiving yards. While Waller was down, a plethora of random targets stepped up including Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards, while Hunter Renfrow held down the slot.
While it was good to see Carr step up with average weapons, this team has definitely upgraded. They started the offseason by trading for Devante Adams, who has arguably been the best wide receiver in football over the past couple season. While Waller & Renfrow over the middle was already a coverage nightmare, adding Adams into that mix is going to be devastating.
Not only have the Raiders upgraded offensively, so has the rest of the division. The AFC West consistently had some of the highest totals in the NFL last season, adding Russell Wilson to the list alongside Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert gives me confidence there is going to be plenty of offense in store for this Raiders team. This Raiders defense has some good pieces, but the secondary should once again be exploitable. If this Raiders team is going to make the playoffs this season, Carr is going to need to do a lot of work in the air.
Juju Smith-Schuster (KNC) Over 750.5 Receiving Yards
What’s the narrative around Juju? It’s that he can’t be a true wide receiver No. 1. Well the good news around that is he won’t be asked to be one in Kansas City, with Travis Kelce still in town. JuJu went over this number in three of his first four seasons in the league, starting out really strong with 917 and 1,426 yards in his first two seasons with the Steelers.
Fast forward to present time, he missed 12/17 games last season, and will now be in store for a major quarterback update (noodle-arm Ben to Mahomes). After losing a combined 260 targets this offseason, with Hill, Pringle, and Robinson all leaving town, there will be a major gap to fill for JuJu, MVS, and rookie Skyy Moore to fill. This is one of the most high powered offenses in football in a division where sparks are going to fly. I trust that JuJu gets his fair share this season. As for line value, this is 750 on DraftKings and 800+ on Ceasers and PointsBet.
Trey Lance (SFO) Over 500.5 Rushing Yards
Before we go any further, we need to acknowledge that Trey Lance is one of the highest variance players in football. After not playing much in his rookie season, the 49ers have publicity committed to him as their starter, with Jimmy G riding the bench and likely looking for a trade partner. Everything from the Trey Lance preseason experience emphasizes the high upside passing plays, but the inconsistency that goes along with it. On a team with playoff aspirations, if Lance fails to consistently move the ball downfield we could see him really start to rely on his legs.
We’ve seen Kyle Shanahan's propensity to give his rushing quarterbacks high volume, first with RG3 then with Lance in limited action last year. He rushed for 1,100 yards in his final full season with NDSU, and went 16-89 and 8-31 on the ground in his two starts last season. He’ll be running behind a strong offensive line, with one of the best blocking tight ends in football. I think Lance’s rushing prop will be in the 40’s weekly. I debated between 500.5 -150 on DraftKings and 575.5 on BetMGM, but If I'm laying down big money then I’ll drink the juice here.
Elijah Mitchell (SFO) Under 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns
While it’s good to have your conviction plays, unders are the way to go for NFL season long props. Betting season long RB rushing touchdown unders was one of the most profitable markets last season, and I think Elijah Mitchell sets up to continue that trend this season. Beyond the fact that Kyle Shanahan is known for employing a creative red zone offense, this team has famously burnt Gambling Twitter by employing a variety of different players in the red zone.
Veteran fullback Kyle Juszczyk has earned the trust of the 49ers, and his blocking abilities will give him a couple opportunities for touchdowns this season. Running backs Trey Sermon, Jeff Wilson Jr., Ja'Mycal Hasty and rookie Tyrion Davis-Price will all have opportunities to earn larger roles on this team. JWJ has always been a good red zone presence, Sermon has been good in camp and could battle his way out of the doghouse, the Niners invested good draft capital into him just one season ago.
As for Davis-Price, your guess is as good as mine, but this team has shown they are comfortable trusting there rookies, just as they did with Mitchell last season. Most importantly, Lance should be a red zone weapon this season. Even if Mitchell doesn’t have as many injury problems this season I believe Lance will still play a huge role in the red zone this season.
Justin Jefferson (MIN) Lead NFL in Receiving Yards
Let’s end this thing with a nice +900 long shot. Justin Jefferson is my WR1 this season, and I think he continues his historic run to start his career. He’s already broken the record for most receiving yards in his first two seasons, why not a third? Bringing in the coach who facilitated Cooper Kupp’s explosion last season to be your head coach is definitely a good sign, it’s not hard to imagine Jefferson taking that next step.
Unlike most of Jefferson’s competition, he really doesn’t have a big threat to eat into his target share. While Adam Thelein is a viable wide receiver that can keep defenses honest, he’s past his athletic prime and there are many signs he will make a leap this season. Davante Adams now has Waller and Renfrow in town & Kupp is welcoming the addition of Allen Robinson (and possibly some Matthew Stafford arm injuries), and Chase has Higgins and Boyd. If your looking for a deeper longshot, Michael Thomas at 40/1 is interesting.