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Packers vs Raiders Picks, Predictions, Odds | Monday Night Football Week 5

Michael Crosson
Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read

Week 5 of the 2023 NFL regular season concludes with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Green Bay Packers and Las Vegas Raiders. Coverage begins from Allegiant Stadium in Vegas at 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC.

Here's everything you need to know about the Packers vs Raiders Picks, Predictions, and Odds for Monday Night Football Week 5.

Packers vs Raiders Picks, Betting Prediction & Odds for Monday Night Football Week 5

Matchup Spread Total Moneyline

According to VegasInsider’s Patrick Everson, the spread for this Monday Night Football contest originally opened at Packers -1 at BetMGM, and it hovered around that number until Thursday, when the line made the modest fence jump to Raiders -1, where it remains now. Likely contributing to that move was the expectation that QB Jimmy Garoppolo would be back under center for Vegas. And on Friday afternoon, the Raiders announced that Garoppolo cleared concussion protocol and will start Monday night.

However, plain and simple, I don’t think the Raiders deserve to be favored in this contest regardless of Garoppolo’s presence. The Raiders sit at a record of 1-3, and quite frankly, they were incredibly fortunate to escape with their lone win in Week 1, as they scored just 17 points on 261 yards of total offense and still managed to beat the Broncos.

The Raiders’ miserable offensive play quickly caught up with them in Week 2, though, and it certainly hasn’t gotten any better since. The Raiders have scored 18 points or less in all four of their games thus far, and they’ve already turned the ball over 10 times. They rank 25th in scoring at 15.5 points per game and 26th in total yardage at 282 yards per game. And while their defensive numbers may be a little bit padded thanks to a stellar performance against Denver, the Raiders defense has really struggled as well, having surrendered 28.3 points per game on 363 yards per game in Weeks 2 through 4.

On the flip side, the Packers offense has also had its fair share of struggles over the last few weeks. Green Bay enters this contest following back-to-back lackluster offensive performances against the Saints and Lions. They scored 20 points or less and turned the ball over three times on the way to a 1-1 split. However, prior to that, I think it’s safe to say that this Packers team flashed far more potential in the first two weeks of the season than the Raiders have at any point with Garoppolo at QB. In Week 1, the Packers scorched the Bears by a score of 38-20, and in Week 2, they lost a heartbreaker to the Falcons 25-24, while keeping a clean sheet with zero turnovers in both affairs.

According to Action Network’s Evan Abrams, Matt LaFleur is 17-10 ATS in night games since taking over as Packers head coach. That’s the eighth-best mark for any head coach over the last 20 years (out of 136). LaFleur has also excelled as an underdog. He is 16-6 ATS as a 'dog – 12-5 with Aaron Rodgers and 4-0 with Jordan Love. Since moving from Oakland to Las Vegas, the Raiders have posted home records of 11-15 SU and 13-13 ATS. 

The cat clearly isn’t fully out of the bag yet, as the Raiders enter this matchup as a short favorites, but this a really bad Las Vegas team. By no means are the Packers great, but at least their offense has somewhat of a pulse and their defense has managed to shut down weak opponents. The Packers worst offensive performance of the year so far (18 points) matches the Raiders season-best (18 points). I think we’ll see the road dog win this one outright with relative ease.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Raiders 17
Best Bet: Packers ML (+110)

GB @ LV Odds

  • Full Game
  • 1H
  • 1Q
  • 2Q
  • 3Q
  • 4Q
  • Spread
  • Total
  • Moneyline
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +0.5 -110 +1.5 -135 +0.5 -120 +0.5 -125 +0.5 -125 +1.5 -136 +1.5 -136 +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -0.5 -110 -1.5 +115 -0.5 even -0.5 +105 -0.5 +105 -1.5 +110 -1.5 +110 -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o21.5 -110 o22.5 -105 o21.5 -110 o21.5 -110 o22.5 -115 o22.5 -109 o22.5 -109 o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u21.5 -110 u22.5 -115 u21.5 -110 u21.5 -110 u22.5 -105 u22.5 -114 u22.5 -114 u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +105 +102 -105 even -108 -105 -105 even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -125 -124 -115 -120 -112 -120 -120 -118  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +0.5 -120 +1.5 -140 N/A +0.5 -115 N/A +1.5 -136 +1.5 -136 +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -0.5 even -1.5 +120 N/A -0.5 -105 N/A -1.5 +110 -1.5 +110 -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o22.5 -110 o22.5 -110 N/A o22.5 -120 N/A o22.5 -112 o22.5 -112 o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u22.5 -110 u22.5 -110 N/A u22.5 even N/A u22.5 -110 u22.5 -110 u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A even even N/A N/A N/A -105 -105 even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -120 -116 N/A N/A N/A -118 -118 -118  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +0.5 -170 +1.5 -178 +0.5 -160 +0.5 -160 +0.5 -148 +1.5 -186 +1.5 -186 +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -0.5 +150 -1.5 +144 -0.5 +125 -0.5 +135 -0.5 +124 -1.5 +145 -1.5 +145 -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o7.5 even o7.5 -102 o7.5 even o7.5 even o7.5 even o8.5 -117 o8.5 -117 o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u7.5 -120 u7.5 -120 u7.5 -130 u7.5 -120 u7.5 -120 u8.5 -107 u8.5 -107 u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A -120 -102 even even +110 -107 -107 even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A even -120 -130 -120 -130 -117 -117 -118  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +0.5 -125 +1.5 -150 N/A N/A +10.5 even N/A N/A +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -0.5 +105 -1.5 +124 N/A N/A -10.5 -130 N/A N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o13.5 -110 o10.5 even N/A N/A o16.5 -115 N/A N/A o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u13.5 -110 u10.5 -132 N/A N/A u16.5 -115 N/A N/A u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A -105 -102 N/A N/A +110 N/A N/A even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -115 -114 N/A N/A -130 N/A N/A -118  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +0.5 -135 +1.5 -172 N/A N/A +0.5 -148 N/A N/A +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -0.5 +115 -1.5 +140 N/A N/A -0.5 +124 N/A N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o9.5 -105 o9.5 -136 N/A N/A o9.5 even N/A N/A o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u9.5 -115 u9.5 +102 N/A N/A u9.5 -120 N/A N/A u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A +115 -102 N/A N/A +114 N/A N/A even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -135 -114 N/A N/A -135 N/A N/A -118  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A -0.5 +120 +1.5 -164 N/A N/A -0.5 +114 N/A N/A +1.5 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A +0.5 -140 -1.5 +134 N/A N/A +0.5 -135 N/A N/A -1.5 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A o12.5 -120 o13.5 +104 N/A N/A o13.5 +102 N/A N/A o45 -110  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A u12.5 even u13.5 -126 N/A N/A u13.5 -122 N/A N/A u45 -110  
Final
Green Bay Packers 475 Packers
N/A -110 -104 N/A N/A -112 N/A N/A even  
Las Vegas Raiders 476 Raiders
N/A -110 -112 N/A N/A -108 N/A N/A -118  

Packers vs Raiders Betting Resources

Date: Monday, October 9, 2023
Matchup: NFC North vs AFC West
Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Time-TV: ABC, 8:15 p.m. ET

Click here for Vegas Insider senior reporter Patrick Everson's full NFL Odds Week 5 Report containing spreads, lines, and trends for every NFL matchup.

Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis

Fantasy managers that rolled the dice on Jordan Love in this year’s draft have certainly been pleased with their decision thus far, as Love currently ranks as the QB4 in most formats thanks to his eight passing touchdowns and two rushing touchdowns through the first four weeks of the season. 

However, in real football, it’s been a bit of a roller coaster for Love, as he’s completed just 56% of his passes for 225 yards per game, while posting the third-worst bad throw percentage in the entire league at 21.7% – only ahead of Kenny Pickett (23.6%) and CJ Stroud (22.7%).

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The Packers offense looked great in performances of 34 and 25 points against Chicago and Atlanta, which resulted in Love throwing three touchdown passes in both affairs. However, the Packers really struggled to find the endzone in their latest two matchups against Detroit and New Orleans, as they churned out low totals of 18 and 20 points on the way to a 1-1 split in Weeks 3 and 4.

That said, I expect to see Love and the Green Bay offense bounce back against a Raiders secondary that enters the week ranked 26th in opponent completion percentage and 27th in passing touchdowns allowed per game.

packers-raiders-monday-night-football-week-5
The Raiders are 0-8 in their last eight matchups against Green Bay. (Getty)

Las Vegas Raiders Betting Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo has posted an incredible record of 41-19 in 60 career starts, which includes a perfect record of 2-0 for New England, 38-17 for San Francisco, and now, 1-2 for Vegas. So, the argument on the Raiders’ behalf could be that their QB is simply a bona fide winner, and if that’s your sincere evaluation of him, the win-loss numbers certainly support that claim at this stage of his career. But personally, I still question Jimmy G’s prowess as an NFL quarterback.

Garoppolo has attempted just 94 passes in three starts for the Raiders so far this season, and he’s already thrown six interceptions. However, back in San Francisco, in a heavily simplified Shanahan scheme (for QBs, at least), he started 55 games and attempted 1,632 passes and was only picked off 42 times.

Maybe Garoppolo will settle in and return to Niners’ form at some point. But through just three starts for the Raiders, he’s already on pace to double his career-high interception number of 13, currently tracking for 32 entering this week. All that just to say, Jimmy G clearing concussion protocol to suit up for this game doesn’t move the needle much for me regarding the Raiders’ chances of winning this matchup.

Packers vs Raiders Betting Trends

  • The Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 8 of Green Bay's last 12 games.
  • The Packers are 6-3 SU in their last nine games.
  • The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Las Vegas' last five games.
  • The Raiders are 1-6 SU in their last seven games.
  • The Raiders are 2-4 SU in their last six home games.
  • The Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games against Las Vegas.
  • The Packers are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against Las Vegas.
  • The total has gone OVER in six straight matchups between the Packers and Raiders.

Where to place a bet this NFL Season?

  • Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
  • Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
  • Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.

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Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson
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