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Jan 29, 2020

SB Props - RB Best Bets

Super Bowl 54 Prop Resources

Undecided on the Chiefs or 49ers in Super Bowl 54? Can’t figure out to play the ‘over’ or the ‘Under’ next Sunday?

Fortunately for bettors on the fence, sportsbooks have increased their proposition wagers market for Super Bowl 54. Similar to past finales, a group of our top NFL experts are offering up their predictions on the most popular “props” for the finale between Kansas City and San Francisco.

This season, we’ve broken the props wagers into specific categories.

Running Back Props - Best Bets

Player Prop Odds provided by DraftKings (IN, NJ & PA only 21+)
Subject to Change

We asked six VegasInsider.com experts to provide their "Best Bets" on a handful of the most popular prop wagers for the two running backs in Super Bowl 54.

Kansas City Chiefs - Damien Williams
San Francisco 49ers - Raheem Mostert

Along with their top selections, you can also view the consensus picks from our experts below.

Kevin Rogers - Raheem Mostert Under 77.5

Raheem Mostert ran all over the Packers in the NFC championship with four runs of 18 yards or more. The Chiefs’ defense hasn’t allowed a run of more than 13 yards in the postseason, which includes limiting NFL rushing champion Derrick Henry of the Titans to 69 yards on 19 carries.

Joe Williams - Damien Williams Longest Rush Under 13.5 (-134)

I like the under here, although I could do without the moderate chalk. However, the 49ers rush defense is rather stout, and if the Chiefs are to move the ball, it’s going to be in the vertical game, not on the ground. The Niners have allowed just 41.5 yards per game in two playoff outings, and they were stingy with 112.6 yards per game on the ground in the regular season and just nine runs over 20 or more yards.

Joe Nelson - Patrick Mahomes Most Rushing Yards in Super Bowl (+900)

220 yards for Raheem Mostert was a clear outlier for the 49ers in the NFC Championship with the team playing with a significant lead nearly the entire way. Mostert didn’t top 69 yards in any of his previous five games and didn’t have more than 19 attempts in any game until the big performance against the Packers. Damien Williams topped 47 yards only four times this season while only twice topping 77. He was held to 47 and 45 in the playoff wins for the Chiefs. Mahomes led the Chiefs in rushing in both playoff wins and the 49ers will be bringing significant pressure in this game as he’ll be forced to make quick decisions, likely opting to run even more frequently facing a very tough secondary. Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson both had strong rushing numbers in wins against San Francisco this season with Jackson eclipsing 100 yards. This is obviously a long shot but given few proven running backs in this game and likely a committee approach from the 49ers, the price is enticing with Mahomes capable of a big scramble at any time to boost his total.

Matt Blunt - Damien Williams Total Rushing and Receiving Yards Over 82.5

Based on how the playoff runs have gone for both teams, everyone expects KC to chuck the ball all over the yard and SF to pound it all game long. But I think we see a flip of that script in the sense that KC would love to get their own rushing game going with Williams, and as a great pressure release valve for Mahomes against SF's pass rush, he could see a lot of swing and screen passes come his way.

Tony Mejia - Damien Williams Most Rushing Yards in Super Bowl (+225)

Damian Williams has separated himself from the pack as Andy Reid’s most trusted option coming out of the backfield. He’s excelled in the role over the past few months and had touchdown runs of 91 yards and 84 yards down the stretch in the regular-season. Mahomes has targeted six times in each playoff game and he’s found the end zone four times already this postseason. All the other big names on the Chiefs’ offense offer him cover to have tremendous value in this game since the 49ers are most vulnerable on the ground given their league-best pass defense. Volume should be a factor for Williams since Kansas City will want to soften up the 49ers and won’t minds shortening the game themselves since they’re worried about San Francisco’s ability to physically wear down a defense. I’m in on the ‘over’ for all his props.

Super Bowl 54 RB Props - Consensus Picks

KC Player Props at BetMGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

RB Props - Damien Williams - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Rushing Yards
Over 50.5 (-125) Under 50.5 (+100)
Under Over Over Over Over Under Over
Rushing Attempts
Over 13.5 (-112) Under 13.5 (-112)
Under Over Over Over Over Under Over
Longest Rush
Over 13.5 (+105) Under 13.5 (-134)
Under Over Over Over Over Under Under
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards
Over 82.5 (-112) Under 82.5 (-112)
Under Under Over Under Over Under Under


RB Props - Raheem Mostert - Consensus
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams Consensus
Rushing Yards
Over 77.5 (+100) Under 77.5 (-125)
Under Under Under Over Under Under Under
Rushing Attempts
Over 15.5 (-125) Under 15.5 (+101)
Over Under Under Over Under Under Over
Longest Rush
Over 18.5 (-112) Under (18.5) -112
Under Over Over Over Over Under Over
Total Rushing and Receiving Yards
Over 89.5 (-112) Under 89.5 (-112)
Under Over Under Over Under Under Under


SF Player Props at BetMGM (NJ only 21+)
Subject to Change

Super Bowl 54 Leading Rusher Best Bets
Props Nelson Goldberg Blunt Rogers Mejia Williams
Raheem Mostert -150 - Leader Leader - - Leader
Damien Williams +225 - - - Leader Leader -
Patrick Mahomes +900 Leader - - - - -
Tevin Coleman +1200 - - - - - -
Matt Breida+1600 - - - - - -
Darwin Thompson +2500 - - - - - -
Tevin Coleman +1200 - - - - - -
Matt Breida +1600 - - - - - -
Darwin Thompson +2500 - - - - - -
Deebo Samuel +2500 - - - - - -
LeSean McCoy +3300 - - - - - -
Tyreek Hill +5000 - - - - - -
Kyle Juszczyk +10000 - - - - - -
Jimmy Garoppolo +25000 - - - - - -

Meet the VI Experts

Joe Nelson – Senior NFL writer and handicapper for VegasInsider.com. “Nelly” puts in the work and makes it looks easy.

Hank Goldberg – Staple of the industry and legendary Vegas expert. The “Hammer” has covered every Super Bowl since it began.

Matt Blunt – The VegasInsider.com genius behind our weekly “Best Bets” and also the master of data mining. His must-read SB54 pieces include analysis:

Kevin Rogers – Along with being host of the Bet and Collect Podcast, K-Rog provides his informative articles and experts picks to VI for multiple sports.

Tony Mejia – The best volume handicapper on VegasInsider.com, creator of the Antony Dinero brand. You can listen to him as a regular guest and co-host on the Bet and Collect podcast weekly.

Joe Williams – Built his chops by playing Daily Fantasy Sports and has turned that experience into sports betting profits. Provides weekly articles and picks for VI.


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