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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 13:47 PM

Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship Predictions, Odds


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Bills vs. Chiefs - Predictions

  • Score Prediction: Buffalo 28 Kansas City 21
  • Best Bet: Buffalo +3, Buffalo ML +145

When you put the words “Buffalo Bills” and “playoffs” together right now, it's hard for those failed opportunities in the four straight Super Bowls Buffalo played in during the early 1990's.

But that's something to worry about during Super Bowl week Bills fans, because it's Conference Championship weekend now, and this Bills franchise is 4-1 SU all time in AFC Title games.

Oddly enough, Buffalo's fourth and most recent AFC Championship game win came against this same Kansas City Chiefs organization, 30-13 in the 1993-94 season. Three of Buffalo's four AFC Championship game wins have also come against AFC West foes, so maybe things are aligned just how they should be for Buffalo this season.

Buffalo's got to go through the defending champs to get there though, and it really is a bummer Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes went down last week and comes into this week really banged up. This run of KC winning games outright and not covering the number became absurd a few weeks back, but it continued last week in beating Cleveland.

Fading KC on the point-spread but still seeing the Chiefs win the game has been the result in seven of KC's last eight wins coming into this game, and the lone win (-2.5 vs New Orleans) could have some number discrepancies too.

This SU (Straight Up) win but ATS (Against the Spread) loss run KC has been on, continues to ask the question of how much is it the Chiefs toying with teams and turning the switch on and off, and how much of it is the gap between KC and their competition narrowing.

It's probably been some of both, and maybe both in the same game, for the Chiefs at times, but when you go on a run and win the Super Bowl after trailing by double digits in every playoff game like KC did a year ago, it can be hard to be truly convinced of the consequences until they ultimately happen.

The Chiefs are up against the same season Conference Championship revenge scenario that was tracked back in the NFC Championship piece, and a less than 100% Mahomes, and even a few other wilder scenarios out there against KC, the situation is far from perfect for the Chiefs. Still something that's rarely bothered them before.


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Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Resources

Bills vs. Chiefs Betting Odds

Line Movements

  • Spread: Kansas City -3 (-120)
  • Money-Line: Kansas City -175 Buffalo +155
  • Total: 54.5
  • Odds Subject to Change

    2020 Betting Stats

    (Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under - O/U)

    Buffalo Bills

    • Overall: 15-3 SU, 12-6-1 ATS, 11-5-2 O/U
    • Road: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS, 5-1-2 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 30.3 (3)
    • Defense PPG: 22.3 (11)
    • Offense YPG: 386.7 (5)
    • Defense YPG: 358.4 (16)

    Kansas City Chiefs

    • Overall: 15-2 SU, 6-10-1 ATS, 8-9 O/U
    • Home: 7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS, 4-5 O/U
    • Offense PPG: 29.1 (5)
    • Defense PPG: 22.3 (9)
    • Offense YPG: 417.1 (1)
    • Defense YPG: 355.4 (15)

    Over vs. Under
    Handicapping the Total

    The first meeting was a rather sloppy 26-17 KC win on a Monday afternoon that easily stayed 'under' the number. It was a game that should have been played the previous Thursday but got pushed back as games did this year, and the oddity of the week seemed to bring a rather odd game with it.

    Now the fact that these Conference Title game rematches have been strong 'over' plays in recent years (See Table Below) doesn't hurt the 'over' move that's happened for this total.

    Non-Division Rematches in AFC-NFC Championships
    Year Regular Season Playoff Rematch
    2019 Titans (+5) 35 vs. Chiefs 32, Over 49 Titans 24 at Chiefs (-7) 35, Over 51
    2019 Packers 8 at 49ers (-3.5) 37, Under 48 Packers 20 at 49ers (-8) 37, Over 46
    2018 Chiefs 40 at Patriots (-3.5) 43, Over 59 Patriots (+3) 37 at Chiefs 31 (OT), Over 56
    2018 Rams 35 at Saints (-1.5) 45, Over 57 Rams (+3) 26 at Saints 23 (OT), Under 55
    2016 Packers 32 at Falcons (-3) 33, Over 51 Packers 21 at Falcons (-6) 44, Over 60
    2016 Patriots (-7) 27 at Steelers 16, Under 50 Steelers 17 at Patriots (-6) 26, Over 50
    2015 Patriots 24 at Broncos (+2.5) 30, Over 42 Patriots 18 at Broncos (+3) 20, Under 45
    2014 Packers 16 at Seahawks (-4.5) 26, Over 46.5 Packers 22 at Seahawks (-8.5) 28 OT, Over 44
    2014 Colts 20 at Patriots (+3) 42, Over 58 Colts 7 at Patriots (-7) 45, Push 52
    2013 Broncos 31 at Patriots (-1.5) 34, Over 54 Patriots 16 at Broncos (-5) 26, Under 57
    2012 Ravens (-2.5) 31 vs. Patriots 30, Over 48.5 Ravens (+8) 28 at Patriots 13, Under 50
    2011 Giants 20 at 49ers (-4) 27, Over 42 Giants (+2) 20 at 49ers 17, Under 41
    2010 Jets (+3.5) 22 at Steelers, Over 36 Jets 19 at Steelers (-4) 24, Over 38
    2009 Jets (+3.5) 29 at Colts 15, Over 40 Jets 17 at Colts (-8.5) 30, Over 40
    2008 Cardinals 20 at Eagles (-3) 48, Over 49 Eagles 25 at Cardinals (+3.5), Over 47
    2007 Chargers 14 at Patriots (-3.5) 38, Over 46 Chargers 12 at Patriots (-14) 21, Under 48
    2007 Packers (+3) 35 at Giants 13, Over 40 Giants (+7.5) 23 at Packers 20 (OT), Over 42
    2006 Colts (+3) 27 at Patriots 20, Under 48 Patriots 34 at Colts (-3.5) 38, Over 47
    2004 Patriots 20 at Steelers (+3) 34, Over 42 Patriots (-3) 41 at Steelers 27, Over 36
    2003 Colts 14 at Patriots (-3.5) 24, Under 42 Colts 14 at Patriots (-3) 43, Over 43
    2003 Eagles (+1.5) 25 at Panthers 16, Over 36 Panthers (+4) 14 at Eagles 3, Under 36
    2002 Bucs 10 at Eagles (-3) 20, Under 36.5 Bucs (+4) 10 at Eagles 27, Over 34
    2002 Titans 25 at Raiders (-7) 52, Over 45 Titans 24 at Raiders (-9) 41, Over 46

    There is 'under' support regardless, so how good the Mahomes health news gets closer to Sunday could only push it up higher.

    Bad news on the health front for Mahomes though and this number could come crashing down as well. Reports are Mahomes should go, but it's still something that could change, and starting the game doesn't necessarily mean finishing the game.

    But with the history there for points to be scored, and the offenses definitely there for points to be scored, the argument for the 'over' is going to have my ears a heck of a lot longer than the other side would. Mahomes or not, KC showed in Henne's relief last week that they are still willing to call the game the same as they would with Mahomes in there, and just knowing that brings some interesting counter adjustments in play for both sides.

    Cold January nights aren't the most conducive to football games getting the smooth rides they tend to need to clear a total in the 50's like this, but I'm also not interested in sitting on my hands expecting punts and FG's with these two QBs/offenses on the field, heavily based on weather.

    The argument for the 'over' is definitely the more interesting one, but ultimately this total isn't one I'm interested in enough to stake an opinion in either option.

    Bills vs. Chiefs - Head-to-Head History

    • Oct. 19, 2020 - Kansas City 26 at Buffalo 17, Chiefs -5.5, Under 55
    • Nov. 26, 2017 - Buffalo 16 at Kansas City 10, Bills +8.5, Under 47
    • No. 29, 2015 - Kansas City 30 vs. Buffalo 22, Chiefs -4, Over 40.5

    The Chiefs defeated the Bills 26-17 on the road in Week 6, which was the only home loss for Buffalo this season. (AP)

    Bills vs. Chiefs
    Handicapping the Side

    Having done all the back-checking and research I've done throughout the season for various Super Bowl ideas and what not, going into last weekend's action I did already know that if this was going to be the AFC Championship game, it's almost certain I'll land on the Bills.

    Historically there has been just too much working against KC this year to repeat, and even recent things like them losing SU in Week 17 (expected, but not the best for future title hopes) and now coming off a playoff game where they won SU and lost ATS AGAIN, but it's a scenario that's been rather detrimental to those teams the next game, at least before Tampa and Buffalo won and covered last week.

    The Mahomes situation brought a quick reaction of knowing I'd have to be taking less points with Buffalo than I hoped and still being alright with that, and the Bills can do it.

    Conceptually these two teams do quite a bit the same – Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott does come from Andy Reid's coaching tree – so the Bills defense sees plenty of the same concepts on a daily basis.

    Mahomes potentially being below his normal self takes away a big part of KC's edge in running those similar schemes, the worrisome thing about KC's SU wins but ATS losses run from a defensive standpoint is that the Chiefs defense can't always get the stops when they need to get the stops. How many games have the Chiefs run out on offense this year during that run?

    Keeping the backdoor open once in a while when you're a favorite of more than a TD is one thing, but it's become a very bad habit for this Chiefs team, and Buffalo's the third playoff team that KC has played on this run of going 8-1 SU and 1-8 ATS.

    The other two for KC?

    A 32-29 win at -2.5/3 over the Saints, and a 27-24 win at -3.5 over the Buccaneers. Both three point games, right on this number.

    Obviously that's not the “ceiling” for KC against playoff teams of a similar caliber, but they maxed out on three-point margins in those games and Buffalo's got an offense that is better than both of those NFC South teams. Who knows how shaky the ground under Mahomes' feet will feel for him, and the Chiefs willingness to play with fire so often with these close finishes (or not good enough to win by margins anymore), has me wanting nothing to do with Kansas City this year. Eventually they are going to get caught with an ATS loss turning into a SU loss as well, and I've got it coming this week.

    In my opinion, Buffalo doesn't even need the points.

    Key Injuries

    Buffalo Bills

    • WR Cole Beasley: Knee - Probable
    • DE Darryl Johnson: Knee - Probable
    • WR Stefon Diggs: Oblique - Probable
    • WR Gabriel Davis: Ankle - Questionable
    • DT Vernon Butler: Knee - Questionable

    Kansas City Chiefs

    • QB Patrick Mahomes: Concussion-Toe - Probable
    • WR Sammy Watkins: Calf - Questionable
    • RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Ankle-Hip - Questionable
    • RB Le'Veon Bell: Knee - Questionable
    • CB Rashad Fenton: Ankle - Questionable
    • LB Willie Gay Jr.: Ankle - Out

    AFC Championship Betting History

    In the first 50 games of the AFC Championship, favorites have gone 36-14 straight up and 29-20-1 against the spread.

    There have been seven games where the favorite has won but it did not win by enough points to cover the spread.

    • 2018 - New England (-7.5) 24 Jacksonville 20
    • 2012 - New England (-7) 23 Baltimore 20
    • 2008 - New England (-14) 21 San Diego 12
    • 1996 - Pittsburgh (-12) 20 Indianapolis 16
    • 1992 - Buffalo (-11) 10 Denver 7
    • 1978 - Denver (-3.5) 20 Oakland 17
    • 1976 - Pittsburgh (-6) 16 Oakland 10
    • Favorite-Underdog (F-D)
    • Home-Away (H-A)
    • Straight Up (SU)
    • Against the Spread (ATS)
    • Over-Under (OU)

    Overall Numbers

    AFC Championship History
    F-D (SU) F-D (ATS) H-A (SU) H-A (ATS) OU
    36-14 29-20-1 35-15 29-20-1 18-16

    AFC Championship History - Bills & Chiefs

    Buffalo

    4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 OU

    • 1994 - Buffalo 30 vs. Kansas City 13, Bills -3, Under 38
    • 1993 - Buffalo 29 at Miami 10, Bills -2, Under 41
    • 1992 - Buffalo 10 vs. Denver 7, Bills -11, Under 45
    • 1991 - Buffalo 51 vs. L.A. Raiders 3, Bills -7, Over 37
    • 1989 - Buffalo 10 at Cincinnati 21, Bills +4, Under 40.5

    Kansas City

    1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 OU

    • 2020 - Kansas City 35 vs. Tennessee 24, Chiefs -7, Over 51.5
    • 2019 - Kansas City 31 at New England 31, Chiefs -3, Over 56.5
    • 1994 - Kansas City 13 at Buffalo 30, Chiefs +3, Under 38

    AFC Championship Line History

    AFC Championship (1970-2020)
    Year Matchup ATS Result
    2019-20 Tennessee 24 at Kansas City (-7) 35 Favorite-Over (51.5)
    2018-19 New England (+3) 37 at Kansas City 31 (OT) Underdog-Over (56.5)
    2017-18 Jacksonville 20 at New England (-7.5) 24 Underdog-Under (46)
    2016-17 Pittsburgh 17 at New England (-5.5) 36 Favorite-Over (50.5)
    2015-16 New England 18 at Denver (+3) 20 Underdog-Under (45)
    2014-15 Indianapolis 7 at New England (-7) 45 Favorite-Under (52.5)
    2013-14 New England 16 at Denver (-5) 26 Favorite-Under (57)
    2012-13 Baltimore (+8) 28 at New England 13 Underdog-Under (49.5)
    2011-12 Baltimore 20 at New England (-7) 23 Underdog-Under (49)
    2010-11 N.Y. Jets 19 at Pittsburgh (-4) 24 Favorite-Over (38)
    2009-10 N.Y. Jets 17 at Indianapolis (-8) 30 Favorite-Over (40)
    2008-09 Baltimore 14 at Pittsburgh (-6) 23 Favorite-Over (35)
    2007-08 San Diego 12 at New England (-14) 21 Underdog-Under (48)
    2006-07 New England 34 at Indianapolis (-3.5) 38 Favorite-Over (47)
    2005-06 Pittsburgh (+3) 34 at Denver 17 Underdog-Over (41)
    2004-05 New England (-3) 41 at Pittsburgh 27 Favorite-Over (35)
    2003-04 Indianapolis 14 at New England (-3) 43 Favorite-Under (43)
    2002-03 Tennessee 24 at Oakland (-8) 41 Favorite-Over (47)
    2001-02 New England (+10) 24 at Pittsburgh 17 Underdog-Over (37)
    2000-01 Baltimore 16 at Oakland (-6) 3 Underdog-Under (36.5)
    1999-00 Tennessee (+7) 33 at Jacksonville 14 Underdog-Over (40.5)
    1998-99 N.Y. Jets 10 at Denver (-9) 23 Favorite-Under (51.5)
    1997-98 Denver (-2.5) 24 at Pittsburgh 21 Favorite-Over (41)
    1996-97 Jacksonville 6 at New England (-7) 20 Favorite-Under (44)
    1995-96 Indianapolis 16 at Pittsburgh (-12) 20 Underdog-Under (41)
    1994-95 San Diego (+9) 17 at Pittsburgh 13 Underdog-Under (35)
    1993-94 Kansas City 13 at Buffalo (-3) 30 Favorite-Under (38)
    1992-93 Buffalo (-2) 29 at Miami 10 Favorite-Under (41)
    1991-92 Denver 7 at Buffalo (-11) 10 Underdog-Under (45)
    1990-91 L.A. Raiders 3 at Buffalo (-7) 51 Favorite-Over (37)
    1989-90 Cleveland 21 at Denver (-3.5) 37 Favorite-Over (40)
    1988-89 Buffalo 10 at Cincinnati (-4) 21 Favorite-Under (40.5)
    1987-88 Cleveland 33 at Denver (-2.5) 38 Favorite-Over (44.5)
    1986-87 Denver 23 at Cleveland (-3) 20 (OT) Underdog-Over (38)
    1985-86 New England 14 at Miami (-5.5) 31 Underdog
    1984-85 Pittsburgh 28 at Miami (-9.5) 45 Favorite
    1983-84 Seattle 14 at L.A. Raiders (-7.5) 30 Favorite
    1982-83 N.Y. Jets 0 at Miami (-2) 14 Favorite
    1981-82 San Diego 7 at Cincinnati (-4.5) 27 Favorite
    1980-81 Oakland (+4) 34 at San Diego 27 Underdog
    1979-80 Houston 13 at Pittsburgh (-9.5) 27 Favorite
    1978-79 Houston 7 at Pittsburgh (-7) 34 Favorite
    1977-78 Oakland 17 at Denver (-3.5) 20 Underdog
    1976-77 Pittsburgh (-4.5) 7 at Oakland 24 Underdog
    1975-76 Oakland 10 at Pittsburgh (-6) 16 Push
    1974-75 Pittsburgh (+5.5) 24 at Oakland 13 Underdog
    1973-74 Oakland 10 at Miami (-6.5) 27 Favorite
    1972-73 Miami (-2.5) 21 at Pittsburgh 17 Favorite
    1971-72 Baltimore 0 at Miami (-1.5) 21 Favorite
    1970-71 Oakland 17 at Baltimore (+1) 27 Underdog


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