Last Updated Nov 13, 2021, 1:00 AM

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 14, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Cleveland Browns (5-4) and the New England Patriots (5-4) hook up at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. for an important AFC battle in Week 10 on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Patriots 23, Browns 19

Best Bets

Patriots -2

Patriots ML


Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Predictions

The Browns put the Odell Beckham Jr. saga in the rear-view mirror, waiving him and going another way. The offense responded rather favorably in Week 9 at Cincinnati, humping up on the Bengals by a 41-16 score, it’s second-most prolific offensive output of the season.

RB Nick Chubb has officially been ruled out for Sunday’s game, as he continues to deal with a positive COVID-19 test despite being a vaccinated player. Chubb rushed for two touchdowns, including a 70-yard score which was a back breaker in the third quarter. RB D’Ernest Johnson will make his second start of the season in Chubb’s stead, as RB Kareem Hunt remains on reserve/IR. Backup RB Demetric Felton is also sidelined with COVID.

In all, the Browns posted 153 rushing yards and 208 passing yards. The Bengals actually had 25 first downs to just 14 for the Browns, but the big plays crushed. Cleveland might want to be a little more crisp in the red zone, however. The red-zone efficiency last week was just 2-for-4, so that’s an area where improvement is needed, especially on the road against another AFC foe in the hunt for a playoff spot. The Browns also committed 10 penalties for 84 yards, so focus and composure was likely a common theme at practice this week.

The Browns opened as a 1-point underdog, but that has risen to as many as 2.5 or even 3 points with the news of absentees, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see it go higher. For the Patriots, they’re coming off a solid 24-6 win over the Carolina Panthers, and New England has won three straight overall, and four of the past five. The only setback was a 35-29 overtime thriller in Foxboro against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 6.

New England has running back issues of its own, as RBs Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson are each in the concussion protocol, not having practiced all week. It appears RB Brandon Bolden, and perhaps RB J.J. Taylor, will be tasked with carrying the load.

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

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Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, November 14, 2021
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Cleveland Browns Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-4
  • ATS: 5-4
  • O/U: 5-4
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

The Browns seem to respond better during adversity. When QB Baker Mayfield, Chubb and Hunt and the departed OBJ each sidelined in Week 7, the team rallied around backup QB Case Keenum and Johnson in the backfield, posting a 17-14 on a Thursday night against the Denver Broncos.

It’s rally time again for the Browns. No Chubb, Hunt or Felton means Johnson will have to shoulder a majority of the backfield load. He exploded for a Chubb-like 146 yards and tuddy against the Broncos, so he is more than capable. And the Pats are just so-so against the rush, allowing 108.9 yards per game to rank 14th, so there is room for Johnson to rumble.

Cleveland enters 5-1 ATS in the past six as a road underdog, and 5-0 ATS on the road against teams with a winning home record. But, it is just 8-21-1 ATS in the past 30 games in the month of November, and 11-29-2 ATS in the past 42 overall against winning teams.

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 5-4
  • ATS: 5-4
  • O/U: 4-5
  • ATS - Home: 2-3
  • ATS - Away: 3-1

The Patriots enter on a season-best 3-0 SU/ATS run, going for 24 or more points in five consecutive outings. Rookie QB Mac Jones is starting to get more comfortable, and it looks like the Patriots might have struck gold with the best rookie of the 2021 quarterback class. At least those are the early returns.

Jones didn’t do much in the road game in Carolina, though, passing for just 139 yards, one touchdown and one interception. But the defense provided the Patriots with a pick-six, one of two interceptions by emerging star CB J.C. Jackson. That stands for Jerald Christopher, just in case you were wondering. While the Pats are on a hot streak, they’re still just 4-11-1 ATS in the past 16 following a straight-up win, and 3-9-1 ATS in the past 13 following a cover.

The injury woes at tailback might mean more of an aerial attack. That’s good news for OVER bettors. The OVER is 4-1 in the previous five for the Patriots, and, for what it’s worth, the OVER is 7-2 in the past nine Week 10 games for New England.

Inside the Stats - Cleveland Browns

  • Record: 5-4
  • Division Standing: 3rd - AFC North
  • Points Scored: 224
  • Points Allowed: 196
  • PS/G: 24.9 (13th)
  • PA/G: 21.8 (10th)

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 5-4
  • Division Standing: 2nd - AFC East
  • Points Scored: 230
  • Points Allowed: 170
  • PS/G: 25.6 (10th)
  • PA/G: 18.9 (4th)

Key Players to Watch

  • CLE: Baker Mayfield - QB (150/225, 1,917 yards, 8 TD, 3 INT)
  • CLE: Nick Chubb - RB (120 carries, 721 yards, 6 TD)
  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (204/300, 2,135 yards, 10 TD, 7 INT)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (133 carries, 547 yards, 7 TD)

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Betting Conclusion

There are all kinds of storylines here, and this is actually a bit of a difficult game to predict given the crazy injury situations on both sides. While we’ve seen the Browns circle the wagons with staff shortages due to injuries/illness, etc. before, facing the underwhelming Broncos at home on a short week, and facing the Patriots on the road are two different animals.

The Browns have a strong defense, and will have to rely upon it heavily if they are to win this game outright. While I don’t think Cleveland pulls out the win, tumbling back to .500 in a key game, I do believe UNDER bettors are going to be the biggest winners.

Cleveland Browns vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • New England has lost four of its last five home games.
  • Hunter Henry has scored a TD in five straight games.
  • New Engand has gone OVER the point total in four of its last five games.
  • Cleveland has covered the spread in five of its last six road games.

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