Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Predictions, Odds, Picks

Nov. 28, 2021
Dan Dobish
VI Betting Expert

The Tennessee Titans (8-3) travel to meet the New England Patriots (7-4) in a very good AFC matchup in Week 12 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass. Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on CBS.

Score Prediction

Patriots 30, Titans 13

Best Bets

Patriots -6.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Predictions

The Titans were rolling right along, winners of six consecutive games from Week 5 through 10. Then came Week 11 at home against the lowly Houston Texans in a rainy Nissan Stadium, and the Titans fell 22-13 as 10.5-point favorites. Welcome to the 2021 NFL season, which has been more unpredictable than any other in recent memory.

The Patriots stumbled to a 7-9 season in 2020, their first without QB Tom Brady under center. It didn't take long for legendary head coach Bill Belichick to rebuild and find his guy. Rookie QB Mac Jones has taken the reins of the offense and has the Patriots looking like a playoff team again. New England's defense has a lot to do with the turnaround, too, allowing just 13 total points across the past three games, including a shutout in Atlanta last Thursday night.

The Titans will continue playing without RB Derrick Henry for a couple more weeks, as he recovers from foot surgery, the team surprisingly cut future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson this past week, and they will be without WRs AJ Brown (chest) and Julio Jones (IR - hamstring) won't play, so the skill positions are rather depleted for the visitors.

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds

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Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Betting Resources

  • Matchup: AFC South vs. AFC East
  • Date: Sunday, November 28, 2021
  • Venue: Gillette Stadium
  • Location: Foxboro, Massachusetts
  • TV-Time: CBS - 1:00 p.m. ET

Tennessee Titans Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 8-3
  • ATS: 7-4
  • O/U: 6-5
  • ATS - Home: 3-3
  • ATS - Away: 4-1

The Titans have been better against the number on the road, cashing in four of the past five games away from home. That includes straight-up wins in the past three road trips, with a 28-16 win at L.A. Rams as a seven-point underdog, and a 34-31 overtime win in Week 8 at Indianapolis as a three-point 'dog.

Tennessee has won four of five games on the road, and they haven't lost in regulation. The only loss was a 27-24 overtime setback at N.Y. Jets in week 4, a game which they were favored by 5.5 points. While Henry was still active back then, they were without Brown and Jones, a similar setback to Sunday's situation.

The Titans enter 5-0 ATS in the past five as an underdog, and 5-1 ATS in the past six as a road 'dog. They're also 5-2 ATS in the past seven following a straight-up loss, so they don't stew on a setback very long. Still, without Henry, Brown and Jones, it's going to be a tall order trying to win with RBs Jeremy McNichol and D'Onta Foreman, as well as WRs Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers as the top skill position players.

New England Patriots Betting Analysis

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 7-4
  • ATS: 7-4
  • O/U: 5-6
  • ATS - Home: 3-3
  • ATS - Away: 4-1

The defense for the Patriots has allowed a total of just 13 points (4.3 PPG) across the past three outings, but in the NFL during that span. And the New England defenders won't be shedding any tears having to face a Tennessee offense without Brown, Jones or Henry and AP in the backfield.

New England has won and covered five straight games, and it hasn't lost in regulation since Week 4, a 19-17 loss at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers back on Oct. 3. The five covers in a row is the most impressive stat, however, and New England is also 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite, and 4-0 ATS in the past four in the month of November, too.

As far as the total is concerned, the Patriots have cashed the OVER in five of the past seven games, although the UNDER is 4-0 in the past four at home against teams with a winning road record. And, for what it's worth, the Patriots are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, although a lot of those covers were with Brady under center.

QB Ryan Tannehill is playing, but he'll be without WRs AJ Brown and Julio Jones. (AP)

Inside the Stats - Tennessee Titans

  • Record: 8-3
  • Division Standing: 3-1
  • Points Scored: 291
  • Points Allowed: 254
  • PS/G: 26.5
  • PA/G: 23.1

Inside the Stats - New England Patriots

  • Record: 7-4
  • Division Standing: 2-1
  • Points Scored: 300
  • Points Allowed: 177
  • PS/G: 27.3
  • PA/G: 16.1

Key Players to Watch

  • TEN: Ryan Tannehill - QB (245/368, 2,681 yards, 18 total TDs, 12 INT)
  • TEN: Kevin Byard - S (33 TKL, 1 FR, 1 FF, 12 PD, 5 INT, 2 DTDs)
  • NWE: Mac Jones - QB (245/349, 2,540 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT)
  • NWE: Damien Harris - RB (143 rushes, 603 yards, 7 TD)

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Betting Conclusion

It is always a bad idea to write this Titans team off, but it is hard to envision a scenario where they are able to top one of the hottest teams in the NFL with a patchwork offense, missing their three best skill position players. In fact, it's a lot easier to envision a scenario where Tennessee is absolutely run out of the building.

The Patriots won 45-7 last time they played at Gillette against the banged up Cleveland Browns in Week 10. In the past three games at home, New England is averaging 42.7 PPG, while allowing just 10.0 PPG in the previous two. The Patriots have lucked in a few situations, facing some teams when they are down or very banged up, and this week will be no exception. But they're not going to apologize to anybody. It is what it is, and everyone is battling injuries as we go down the stretch in November and head for December.

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots Betting Trends

  • The Titans are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall.
  • The Titans are 5-0 ATS in the past five as an underdog.
  • The Titans are 4-1 ATS in the past five road games.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 ATS in the past five games overall.
  • The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in the past four as a favorite.
  • The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven road games for the Titans.
  • The OVER is 5-2 in the past seven games for the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings.

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