Dec 23, 2021
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions, Odds, Picks
VI Betting Expert
The Cleveland Browns (7-7) and the NFC North Division champion Green Bay Packers (11-3) meet on Christmas Day in Week 16 at Lambeau Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET, and the game will be televised FOX and NFL Network.
Green Bay 31, Cleveland 20
Green Bay -7.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Over 45 (-110) at BetMGM
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Predictions
It has certainly been an eventful week for the Cleveland Browns. The team was expected to play its Week 15 game on Saturday against the Las Vegas Raiders, but a COVID outbreak within the Browns organization caused the game to be moved to 5 p.m. ET on Monday. With QBs Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum each still positive on Monday, the Browns were forced to start third-string QB Nick Mullens for his first start with the team. He did well given the circumstances, and the Browns scratched back for a 14-13 lead into the final moments. However, Raiders PK John Carlson booted the game-winning field goal at the buzzer to sink Cleveland 16-14.
The crazy thing about Monday's game is that if the Browns would have won, they would have moved into first place in the AFC North, while assuming the fourth seed in the AFC playoff picture. Instead, they fell to last place in the division, and 12th place in the AFC. What a costly last-second field goal made by the Raiders.
The Packers actually helped the Browns last week, topping the Baltimore Ravens 31-30, dropping the Ravens to 8-6. The Browns could have been in a three-way tie at 8-6 with a win last Monday, but it didn't happen. Green Bay survived a late two-point conversion attempt in the final minute, grabbing the road win and the NFC North crown.
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Odds
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Resources
- Matchup: AFC North vs. NFC North
- Date: Saturday, December 25, 2021
- Venue: Lambeau Field
- Location: Green Bay, Wisconsin
- TV-Time: FOX/NFLN - 4:30 p.m. ET
Cleveland Browns Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 7-7
- ATS: 6-8
- O/U: 7-7
- ATS - Away: 3-3
The good news about the Browns loss on Monday night, the team fought hard to the end with a depleted roster, nearly pulling off an improbable win, and Cleveland ended up with a cover to snap an 0-4 ATS skid. The team's last cover was a 41-16 blowout win in Cincinnati in Week 9 as two-point underdogs. It was the only cover for the Browns in the past four road games.
Cleveland's offense has really fallen off, whether it's Mullens starting, or the banged up Mayfield. After a bye, Mayfield looked good in Week 14 with a 24-22 victory against the Baltimore Ravens at home. He has been dealing with an injured non-throwing shoulder, battling through a fractured humerus bone, and three dislocations of his left shoulder and a knee injury. The good news is that it appears he is trending toward playing Saturday, WR Jarvis Landry might be ready to come off the reserve/COVID list, and head coach Kevin Stefanski could also be ready to return, too. The bad news is that the Browns are on a short, short week, playing on the road against a red-hot team playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Browns are 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall, and 1-4 ATS in the past five following a non-cover. The Browns are also a dismal 0-4 ATS in the past four games played in Week 16.
Green Bay Packers Betting Analysis
Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)
- SU: 11-3
- ATS: 11-3
- O/U: 6-8
- ATS - Home: 6-0
The Packers picked up a win, and have now scored 31 or more points in four consecutive games dating back to Nov. 21. As such, the OVER has connected in each of the four outings. Green Bay failed to cover the 9.5-point number in Baltimore, which was a rare non-cover. The Pack entered 11-2 ATS in the first 13 games, and last Sunday marked the first time the Packers won a game outright, but failed to cover. Their first two non-covers were in an outright loss at Minnesota in Week 11, and an atrocious outing on a neutral field in Jacksonville against the New Orleans Saints back in Week 1.
Green Bay has picked up covers in 16 of the past 21 home games, while going 5-0 ATS in the past five as a home favorite. They're also 7-2 ATS in the past nine as a favorite, too. And Green Bay doesn't slump much lately, at least against the number, going 20-8 ATS in the past 28 following a non-cover.
As far as totals, the Pack have hit the OVER in four straight, but also seven in a row when scoring more than 30 in the previous outing. When they're hot on offense they tend to stay hot. The OVER is also 6-2 in the past eight eight following a non-cover.
Inside the Stats - Cleveland Browns
- Record: 7-7
- Division Standing: 2-2
- Points Scored: 292
- Points Allowed: 305
- PS/G: 20.9
- PA/G: 21.8
Inside the Stats - Green Bay Packers
- Record: 11-3
- Division Standing: 3-1
- Points Scored: 359
- Points Allowed: 302
- PS/G: 25.6
- PA/G: 21.6
Key Players to Watch
- CLE: Nick Chubb - RB (190 rushes, 1,017 yards, 7 TD)
- CLE: Baker Mayfield - QB (216/344, 2,603 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT)
- GNB: Davante Adams - WR (96 catches, 1,248 yards, 8 TD)
- GNB: Aaron Rodgers - QB (299/441, 3,487 yards, 30 TD, 4 INT)
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Conclusion
The Browns face what pretty much amounts to a must-win game with a .500 record and just three games remaining. They found themselves still afloat in the AFC playoff picture at 7-7, but there are a sea of teams in the same boat, and many of the other combatants hold a tiebreaker against Cleveland. So their best bet is to either win out, win the AFC North Division, or perhaps both. But a wild-card entry likely is no longer a possibility unless things break entirely the right way.
The good news for the Browns, Stefanski is back, and Mayfield is expected to be ready for Saturday's game. TE Austin Hooper, LB Jacob Phillips and return specialist JoJo Natson were each activated from the COVID list, so the team is getting key starters and/or players back, although CB Greg Newsome II was lost to the COVID list Wednesday, so they're not out of the woods.
The Packers are one game ahead of the Arizona Cardinals, Dallas Cowboys, Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, all of which are 10-4, so the Pack must keep their foot on the gas. That's great news for bettors, whether it's Green Bay side bettors or OVER bettors. It's bad news for the Browns, who need a feel-good win that they're just not going to get.
Cleveland Browns vs. Green Bay Packers Betting Trends
- The Browns are 1-4 ATS in the past five games overall.
- The Browns are 5-1 ATS in the past six road games against teams with a winning home mark.
- The Browns are 0-4 ATS in the past four Week 16 games.
- The Packers are 11-2 ATS in the past 13 games overall.
- The Packers are 7-2 ATS in the past nine as a favorite.
- The Packers are 16-5 ATS in the past 21 games at home.
- The OVER is 6-1 in the past seven for the Browns against winning teams.
- The OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 as an underdog for the Browns.
- The OVER is 4-0 in the past four games for the Packers.
- The UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 games in December for the Packers.