Last Updated Oct 17, 2022, 3:08 PM

Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs Picks, Predictions, Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in an anticipated rematch from last season's playoff classic. Kick off is set for 4:25 p.m. ET and will air on CBS from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.


The Buffalo Bills are looking for revenge, losing in the playoffs to essentially a coin flip and watching Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs advance in the postseason. The Bills have looked like one of the better teams in the NFL this season, but despite revenge in mind it's still a tall task to beat Mahomes in Arrowhead.

Kansas City has won 10 of its last 11 home games, while covering the spread in six of seven coming off a divisional game. The Chiefs are averaging 31.8 points per game, which is good for the No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL. Buffalo, however, enters wit the better aerial attack - averaging 324 yards through the air per game which is No. 1 in the NFL.

With the 'to win' markets pointing in both directions, the OVER seems to be a safe play here. The No. 1 offense vs. the No. 1 passing offense should see points in this one. Also, the Chiefs have gone OVER the total in five of six home games when facing Buffalo. The OVER has also cashed in three straight meetings between these two clubs.

Score Prediction: Buffalo 38, Kansas City 31
Best Bet: Over 54 (-110)


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Date: Sunday, Oct. 16, 2022
Matchup: AFC East vs. AFC West
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
Location: Kansas City, Missouri
Time-TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET


Buffalo is an impressive 3-1-1 ATS this season, but are just 2-3-1 ATS in its last six road games. They also struggle to cover against Kansas City historically, going 2-6 ATS against the Chiefs in their last eight meetings. Despite the OVER hitting in four of six meetings, Buffalo is just 1-4 on the O/U this season.

The Bills defense has been electric, a main reason why the UNDER has been so successful for Bills bettors this season. Buffalo enters with the No. 5 passing defense, No. 2 rushing defense and the best scoring defense in the NFL. Despite solid defense, the Bills offense will likely light up the No. 24 passing defense for Kansas City with Stefon Diggs playing the best ball in his career at the wide receiver position.

Josh Allen should exploit the Chiefs' secondary, as the Bills have almost abandoned the run game entirely and probably won't be keen on testing the Chiefs' No. 3 rushing defense. He has thrown for at least 317 yards in three of four games so expect Allen to find Diggs deep in this one.

The return play of Gabriel Davis has also given passing defenses something more to think about, finally breaking free for 171 yards and two touchdowns after two quiet weeks following a productive Week 1 against Los Angeles. Both Diggs and Davis are good touchdown prop plays this week - with Diggs finding the end zone five times already this season.

Kansas City is 6-2 SU last eight games when facing Buffalo. (Getty)


Mahomes will have his hands full in this one, going up against the best defense in the NFL looking for blood after the exit in last year's playoffs. It will all be on Mahomes as well, as the Bills No. 2 rushing defense severely outmatches the Chiefs No. 18 rushing offense. Kansas City will have to rely on the aerial attack here, and if Kansas City plays remotely well then they should be able to contribute enough points on the scoreboard to see the game go OVER.

The Chiefs are just 0-2 ATS at home this season, but are also 10-1 SU in their last 11 home games. They are also 2-4 ATS in their last six games, but 15-3 SU in their last eight. The Chiefs are a tricky underdog in this one, so this is another reason I'm leaning into the total market. Kansas City has gone OVER the total in 10 of 13 games overall, including five of seven inside Arrowhead.

Travis Kelce has been the top target with Hill now in Miami - and he has produced as well as the Chiefs could've asked for (four touchdowns last week). Although I don't expect much from Clyde Edwards-Helaire in this game, Jerick McKinnon might see some work in the pass-catching game while Mecole Hardman might also be a great dark horse bet to find the end zone in this one. He hasn't score since Week 1, but did take a punt back for a touchdown along with catching a pass for a score too.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling also saw a season-high 90 yards last week, so perhaps Mahomes will be looking towards him more often as the season progresses. Overall I do expect Mahomes and the offense outside of Kelce to grow - but it's a tall task against the best defense in the NFL (statistically speaking).


  • Kansas City is 2-4 ATS last six.
  • Kansas City is 15-3 SU last 18.
  • Kansas City is 10-1 SU last 11 home games.
  • Kansas City has gone OVER in five of seven home games.
  • Buffalo is 9-2 SU last 11 games.
  • Buffalo has gone UNDER in four of five games.
  • Buffalo is 2-6 SU last eight vs. Kansas City.
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