AFC Playoffs Wild Card Betting Cheat Sheet
The road to the AFC Championship will begin next weekend in the Wild Card Round as six teams will look to advance to the NFL Divisional Playoff Round.
Seeds two through four are the division winners while five, six and seven are the Wild Card teams.
For the third time in the last five seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs picture and will have a bye in the Wild Card round. The club could also have home-field advantage in the AFC Championship unless it meets Buffalo. Due to the Bills having their game canceled in Week 17, Buffalo and Kansas City would meet at a neutral field.
AFC Playoff Bracket and Matchups
- 1 Seed - Kansas City (First Round Bye)
- 2 Buffalo vs. 7 Miami
- 3 Cincinnati vs. 6 Baltimore
- 4 Jacksonville vs. 5 L.A. Chargers
Odds to win AFC Championship
- Kansas City +165
- Buffalo +200
- Cincinnati +410
- Jacksonville +2100
- L.A. Chargers +1100
- Baltimore +1700
- Miami +3000
Listed in Seed Order - Odds per FanDuel - Subject to Change
2 Buffalo Bills vs. 7 Miami Dolphins
- Betting Matchup & Trends
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023
- Venue: Highmark Stadium
- Location: Buffalo, New York
- TV-Time: CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Odds
The Buffalo Bills have been installed as the largest favorites for the Wild Card round, opening -11 versus Miami.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Betting Stats
Miami Dolphins
Overall Record: 9-8 SU, 9-8 ATS, 8-9 O/U
Road Record: 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS, 7-2 O/U
Buffalo Bills
Overall Record: 13-3 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U
Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS, 5-3 O/U
Since Sean McDermott took over as head coach in Buffalo, the Bills have gone 12-2 SU as double-digit favorites. Versus the point-spread, the club has gone 7-5-2. The Miami Dolphins went 1-4 on the road versus playoff teams this season and the lone victory was a wild comeback in Week 2 against Baltimore, 42-38.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Head-to-Head
The two AFC East rivals split a pair of matchups this season with the home team winning each time. Miami held off Buffalo at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 3 as four-point home underdogs, 21-19. The Bills picked up revenge in Week 15 at home with a 32-29 home victory, but Miami cashed seven-point ‘dogs. The first meeting easily remained Under the total of 54 ½, while the second matchup in snowy Buffalo cashed the Over of 45.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Playoff Notes
Miami hasn’t been to the postseason since 2017 when it lost a Wild Card matchup to Pittsburgh, 30-12. Coincidentally, the Dolphins had a backup QB (Matt Moore) for that game and it appears to be the same scenario this weekend. The last Miami road playoff win came in 2000 against the Seattle Seahawks, who were still in the AFC. Buffalo has gone 3-3 in the postseason under QB Josh Allen with all three wins coming at home and all three losses on the road.
Last 5 Playoff Games
Miami: 1-4 SU, 1-3 ATS, 0-5 O/U
Buffalo: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS, 4-1 O/U
3 Cincinnati Bengals vs. 6 Baltimore Ravens
- Betting Matchup & Trends
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023
- Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
- Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
- TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Odds
The pair just met in Week 18 and Cincinnati closed as an 11 ½-point home favorite. One week later, the line is sitting at Bengals -6 ½ and that number is based on Baltimore starting quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Stats
Baltimore Ravens
Overall Record: 10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS, 5-12 O/U
Road Record: 5-4 SU, 5-3-1 ATS, 4-5 O/U
Cincinnati Bengals
Overall Record: 12-4 SU, 12-4 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U
Home Record: 7-1 SU, 6-1-1 ATS, 4-4 O/U
With a healthy Lamar Jackson this season, the Baltimore Ravens went 8-4 and that includes a 4-2 road record. The two losses on the road came by a combined five points. The Bengals are the second hottest team in the NFL, winners in eight straight (7-1 ATS). Four of those wins came at home and all but one was decided by double digits.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Head-to-Head
The home team won each matchup, capped off with Cincinnati guaranteeing itself the Wild Card game being played at Paul Brown Stadium as the Bengals beat the Ravens, 27-16 in Week 18. Cincinnati avenged a 19-17 defeat at Baltimore in Week 5, although the Bengals cashed as three-point underdogs. This marks the first playoff meeting between the AFC North rivals ever. The Bengals won both divisional matchups last season but Baltimore was on a 5-0 prior to those victories in 2021.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens Playoff Notes
The Bengals are seeking a second straight AFC Championship, which included three wins by seven points or less in last year’s run to the Super Bowl before losing, 23-20 to the Rams.
QB Joe Burrow helped Cincinnati to its 3-1 playoff record last season and bettors should note that all four games were decided by single digits and three came by exactly three points. Prior to Burrow joining the Bengals, Cincinnati had dropped eight consecutive seasons.
The Ravens are in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons after missing out last season. It hasn’t been a good run lately for the club, going 1-4 both SU and ATS in its previous five postseason games. However, Baltimore does own an incredible 6-1 record in the Wild Card round under head coach John Harbaugh, which includes five road victories.Overall, Harbaugh has gone 11-8 in the playoffs during his 15 years with Baltimore.
Last 5 Playoff Games
Baltimore: 1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS
Cincinnati: 3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS
4 Jacksonville Jaguars vs. 5 L.A. Chargers
- Betting Matchup & Trends
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023
- Venue: TIAA Bank Field
- Location: Jacksonville, Florida
- TV-Time: NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. L.A. Chargers Odds
The tightest matchup of the week will take place in the Sunshine State as the Los Angeles Chargers have been installed as short favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. L.A. Chargers Betting Stats
Los Angeles Chargers
Overall Record: 10-7 SU, 11-5-1 ATS, 7-9-1 O/U
Chargers Road Record: 5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS, 4-5 O/U
Jacksonville Jaguars
Overall Record: 9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS, 8-9 O/U
Jacksonville Home Record: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 2-7 O/U
Although this line is short, make a note that the Chargers were 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS as road favorites this season. Something is going to have to give on Saturday night with the Jaguars owning a perfect 4-0 record as home underdogs this season. The offense averaged 29.8 PPG in those victories.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. L.A. Chargers Head-to-Head
The Jaguars rolled past the Chargers at SoFi Stadium in Week 3 as 6 ½-point underdogs, 38-10. Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert played through a rib injury, but Jacksonville scored 31 points in the second and third quarters combined to cruise to its second win of the season. Jags’ quarterback Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdown passes, while the Chargers were limited to 26 rushing yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. L.A. Chargers Playoff Notes
We don’t have much playoff performance to measure for these teams. The last postseason game for the Chargers came in the 2018-19 season when the club lost in the Divisional Playoffs to the Patriots with Philip Rivers under center for Los Angeles. Meanwhile, Jacksonville last participated in the 2017-18 playoffs and it made noise with a 2-1 record and the loss came in the AFC Championship to the New England Patriots.
This will be the first playoff appearance for Chargers head coach Brandon Staley. On the other sidelines, Super Bowl winning coach Doug Pederson owns a 4-2 career record during his tenure with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Last 5 Playoff Games
L.A. Chargers: 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 1-4 O/U
Jacksonville: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U
AFC Wild Card Notes & Trends
-- All of the higher seeds won and covered in the AFC Wild Card round last season, two of the three victories coming by 20-plus points.
-- In the 2020-21, it was the opposite results as the visitors went 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS.
-- In each of the last two playoffs, the 4-5 matchup has been decided by exactly seven points.
Where to place a bet this NFL Season?
- Use our exclusive BetMGM Bonus Code VIBONUS1500 to unlock BetMGM’s welcome offer for new sportsbook users!
- Compare the latest NFL Odds from the best sportsbooks before placing a bet on this week's games.
- Check out the North Carolina Sportsbooks just before they launch legal online sports betting.
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