NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Commanders Dominate In Madrid

NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Commanders Dominate In Madrid

Image Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Here are my NFL Week 11 best bets, including a few bets for the Miami Dolphins vs. the Washington Commanders in Madrid. Click any of the links to place that bet directly.

The best way to take advantage of NFL Week 11 lines is to ensure you are getting the best NFL odds. Our odds screen compiles odds from major books for every NFL game. You also need to be sure to claim relevant sportsbook promos to get the most bonus bets. Whether it is the bet365 bonus code, a Fanatics Sportsbook promo, or our FanDuel promo code, be sure to get in on the action with the best new user promos!

COMMANDERS VS. DOLPHINS BEST BET

WAS @ MIA Odds

Washington +2.5 against Miami is a sharp play. Washington quietly ranks 12th in yards per play (5.6) and sits top 6 in rushing efficiency at nearly 5 yards per carry. They’re also one of the league’s best in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on roughly 80% of trips.

Miami’s defense has struggled, allowing over 5.9 yards per play (5th worst in the NFL), and their offense has converted just over half of their own red-zone chances.

Washington’s balanced offense and improved pass protection give them the tools to hang close. With the line at +2.5, Washington is undervalued.

Backing the over 47.5 in this game looks solid. Washington averages 22.3 points per game this season, showing consistent offensive production. Miami’s defense has struggled, allowing roughly 26 points per game. Both teams have a history of hitting totals above 47.5 in recent matchups, with Miami games reaching that mark in 5 of 10 games and Washington in 6 of 10.

With Washington’s balanced offensive attack and Miami’s defensive vulnerabilities, this game has strong potential for a high-scoring outcome, making the over 47.5 a smart play.

Best Bet: Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins o47.5 (-104) AND Washington Commanders +2.5 (+100)

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JAGUARS VS. CHARGERS BEST BET

LAC @ JAC Odds

Backing the Jacksonville Jaguars +3 vs. the Los Angeles Chargers is a value play. The Jaguars boast a +8 turnover differential this season, putting them among the league’s best in taking care of the ball and forcing mistakes. Meanwhile, the Chargers have recently shown signs of vulnerability, ranking 28th in rushing defense and allowing almost 5 yards per carry on average.

Given the small spread, the Jaguars’ ability to flip field position via turnovers and keep the Chargers off balance gives them a strong chance to keep it within 3 points or win outright.

Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115)

BUCCANEERS VS. BILLS BEST BET

TB @ BUF Odds

Tampa Bay’s offense, averaging 328 yards per game, has the tools to stay competitive against Buffalo. Buffalo's run defense has struggled this season, allowing 147 rushing yards per game, which ranks 3rd worst in the league. This vulnerability gives Tampa Bay a clear path to control the ground game, sustain drives, and limit Buffalo’s possessions. By mixing runs and short passes, Tampa Bay can keep the game close.

With the spread at +6, Tampa Bay's ability to exploit Buffalo’s run‑defense weaknesses and generate consistent offensive drives gives them a realistic chance to cover.

Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6 (-112)

BEARS VS. VIKINGS BEST BET

CHI @ MIN Odds

Chicago's offense is averaging 380 yards and 27 points per game this season. Their defense has been opportunistic recently, forcing turnovers at key moments. Minnesota’s offense has struggled in key areas, ranking 31st in 3rd‑down conversion and 20th in red-zone efficiency, which could limit sustained drives.

In recent head-to-head matchups, Chicago has kept games close, losing by single digits in 2 of their last 3 meetings. With the spread at +3, Chicago has the offensive production and favorable matchup dynamics to stay within one score and cover.

Bet: Chicago Bears +3 (-115)

GIANTS VS. PACKERS BEST BET

GB @ NYG Odds

The Giants’ offense ranks 14th in yards per game at about 333, showing consistent production. Their rushing attack averages 123 yards per game, which is 11th best in the league and allows them to sustain drives and control tempo. Green Bay’s defense is solid both against the run and pass, which makes covering a touchdown spread challenging, but the Giants have been effective at protecting the football and generating efficient drives without relying on big plays.

With the spread at +7, the Giants’ ability to stay methodical and avoid critical mistakes gives them a realistic path to remain within one score. Who can't resist some Jameis Winston magic?

Bet: New York Giants +7 (-104)

TEXANS VS. TITANS BEST BET

HOU @ TEN Odds

Houston is averaging 22.7 points per game, showing they can reach the 20s with regularity. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s defense is allowing 28.6 points per game, ranking among the worst in the NFL in that category. With the total set at only 37.5 points, these numbers suggest both teams possess enough offensive production and defensive vulnerability to clear that mark.

If Houston gets into a rhythm, the scoring potential is very much there. Tennessee may only need to score 10 points for this game to go over.

Bet: Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans o37.5 (-102)

PANTHERS VS. FALCONS BEST BET

CAR @ ATL Odds

Carolina’s offense is averaging just under 300 yards per game (297.1), placing them near the bottom of the league, but their ability to keep games close has improved. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offense has produced 330.8 yards per game, which is not much better than Carolina.

In recent head-to-head matchups, Carolina has won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Atlanta. Given the modest spread and Carolina's competitiveness in this series, the +3.5 provides a realistic path to staying within a score.

Bet: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-110)

STEELERS VS. BENGALS BEST BET

CIN @ PIT Odds

Pittsburgh’s offense is averaging about 23.8 points per game, while Cincinnati is averaging 24 points per game. Both teams rank in the middle of the league in red-zone touchdown conversion and generate relatively few explosive plays per drive, which limits big scoring bursts.

Defensively, both squads can create stops and control tempo, which further reduces scoring opportunities. With the total set at 49.5 points, these factors suggest a controlled pace and moderate scoring. The matchup dynamics point to a strong likelihood that the combined score will stay under 50 points.

Bet: Carolina Panthers +3.5 (-110)

CARDINALS VS. 49ERS BEST BET

SF @ ARI Odds

Arizona’s offense will be led by Jacoby Brissett, who brings experience managing games and limiting mistakes. The Cardinals are averaging 4.9 yards per play this season and can sustain drives with a mix of short passes and runs. San Francisco’s defense is solid, but the 3-point spread is narrow, meaning Arizona only needs to stay competitive to cover.

With Brissett’s ability to protect the football and the Cardinals’ balanced approach, they have a realistic path to keep the game close against the 49ers.

Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3 (-108)

BROWNS VS. RAVENS BEST BET

BAL @ CLE Odds

Cleveland’s defense has been strong against the run, allowing 97.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks among the better marks in the league this season. Baltimore excels in converting third downs and scoring drives, but the Browns’ run-stopping ability can limit the Ravens’ tempo and force more predictable passing situations.

Offensively, Cleveland averages around 17–18 points per game, and with a 7.5-point spread, they only need to keep the game within one score. Their defensive strength and ability to stay competitive gives them a realistic path to cover against Baltimore.

Bet: Cleveland Browns +7.5 (-110)

LIONS VS. EAGLES BEST BET

DET @ PHI Odds

Detroit ranks second in the league in points per game at 31.4 and first in completion percentage, demonstrating precision and offensive consistency. Philadelphia’s defense is averaging only 2.1 sacks per game, which limits their ability to consistently disrupt Detroit’s rhythm.

Jared Goff has held a completion rate of 70% or more in 8 straight road starts. With the Eagles not far ahead in efficiency, the margin of difference is slim. These performance metrics suggest Detroit has a legitimate shot at winning outright.

Bet: Detroit Lions Moneyline (+130)

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