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Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
13 minute read

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ont. on Monday night for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

Best Bet

Lightning -120
Over 6.5 (+102)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS PREDICTIONS

The Lightning are two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, and they're facing a Maple Leafs team which hasn't won a playoff series since 2004, and an organization which hasn't won a Stanley Cup since 1967. But, Tampa Bay is also facing a team with the Rocket Richard Trophy winner, as Auston Matthews netted 60 goals with 106 points and a plus-20 rating. It's going to be a helluva series, with plenty of offense all around.

These teams met four times during the regular season, with the teams splitting with two wins apiece, including a win each on the other team's ice. Seven games, anyone?

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ODDS

Lightning +115
Maple Leafs -120
Lightning +1.5 (-222)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+198)
Over 6.5 (+102)
Under 6.5 (-105)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Date: Monday, May 2, 2022
  • Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
  • Venue: Scotiabank Arena
  • Location: Toronto, Ont.
  • TV-Time: ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 51-23-8
  • ATS: 38-44
  • O/U: 44-36-2

The Lightning rolled up five wins in the final six outings of the regular season, but perhaps none of the victories was more impressive than an 8-1 beatdown of the Maple Leafs on April 21 at Amalie Arena in Tampa.

The two-time defending Stanley Cup champions lost just seven games en route to the team's second consecutive championship last season, including a 4-2 series win over the Florida Panthers in the first round last season. Prior to that, the Lightning won in five games over the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2020 in the first round. Since a sweep at the hands of the Jackets in 2019, TBL hasn't fooled around in the opening series of the postseason.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 54-21-7
  • ATS: 39-43
  • O/U: 45-30-7

The Maple Leafs have a proud, rich history, winning Lord Stanley's Cup on 13 occasions, including 11 as a the Maple Leafs. However, after winning the Cup four times in six seasons from 1962-67, the spigot not only slowed, but has shut off completely. The Leafs haven't won a Cup in 55 years, and they haven't even gotten out of the first round since topping the Ottawa Senators in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals in 2004.

The Leafs are not only playing against the Lightning, but they're facing an awful lot of history and demons, too. This organization has been snake-bitten for more than half a century. Toronto can win this series and wash a lot of that pain away, but ousting a two-time champ won't be easy, especially with shaky goaltending and mediocre defense. This team does have outstanding offense, and will have to beat one of the best in the business in Andrei Vasilevskiy.

The road team has cashed in seven of the past 10 meetings in this series. (Getty Images)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS PREDICTIONS

The Lightning have nothing to lose in this series. They've hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup in each of the past two seasons. They enter this one without home-ice advantage in the first round, but that likely won't matter. The road team has won seven of the past 10 in this series, and the Lightning have the recent successful history, while the Leafs are facing a lot more pressure.

The pressure will be turned up starting the series in Toronto, and the Leafs will either get off to a good start, or they'll fall behind, start pressing, and implode in the series opener. I expect things to go south for Toronto in Game 1, fighting from behind. Look for plenty of goals, too, so playing the Lightning and the OVER in a parlay is worth a small-unit play.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING TRENDS

  • Lightning are 5-1 in the past six games overall.
  • Lightning are 4-10 in the past 14 vs. winning teams.
  • Lightning are 1-4 in the past five as an underdog.
  • Lightning are 1-4 in the past five as a road 'dog.
  • Lightning are 4-1 in the past five Eastern QF games.
  • Maple Leafs are 48-17 in the past 65 as a favorite.
  • Maple Leafs are 38-15 in the past 53 home games.
  • OVER is 8-1 in the past nine games for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 4-1 in the past five road games for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 as an underdog for the Lightning.
  • OVER is 38-15-7 in the past 60 for the Maple Leafs.
  • OVER is 32-14-6 in the past 52 as a favorite for the Maple Leafs.
  • Lightning is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings in Toronto.
  • OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings.
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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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