Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Tampa Bay Lightning Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

The Toronto Maple Leafs will face the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Fla. on Sunday night for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. The Leafs lead the series 2-1. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on TBS.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 3

Best Bet

Lightning -115
Over 6.5 (+100)

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING PREDICTIONS

The Toronto Maple Leafs suffered a 5-3 setback on home ice in Game 2, and it was that old sinking feeling for the home side, as the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning wrestled home-ice advantage back heading into Amalie Arena in Game 3. But perhaps Toronto has turned over a new leaf, as it responded with a dominating 5-2 victory in Tampa to seize the momentum back.

UNDER bettors are likely spackling their wall today after Ilya Mikheyev's two late empty-net goals from Pierre Engvall to flip the total to an OVER. The final goal came with 4.2 seconds remaining for one of the worst bad beats you're ever going to see.

Remember, though, this is a playoff loss, and Tampa Bay doesn't have consecutive setbacks in the postseason. Andrei Vasilevskiy is 15-0-0 with a 1.31 GAA, .948 SV% and five shutouts since 2020 after a playoff loss.

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TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ODDS

Maple Leafs +108
Lightning -130
Maple Leafs +1.5 (-263)
Lightning -1.5 (+215)
Over 6.5 (-105)
Under 6.5 (-115)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, May 8, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Amalie Arena
• Location: Tampa, Fla.
• TV-Time: TBS, 7 p.m. ET

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 56-22-7
• ATS: 41-44
• O/U: 47-31-7

Win or lose, the Maple Leafs have been piling up the offense, averaging 4.3 goals per game through three outings in this series, winning two of them. Jack Campbell has allowed a total of seven goals, too, outplaying the two-time Stanley Cup champ Vasilevskiy, too.

The Maple Leafs have registered seven victories in the past 10 games on the road, although they're still just 4-9 in the previous 13 playoff games as an underdog despite the Game 3 victory. They're also 3-7 in the past 10 as a road underdog.

For totals, it's been all about the OVER lately, as Toronto gives up plenty, and scores even more. The OVER is 8-1-1 in the past 10 as a road underdog for the Leafs, while going 20-4-2 in the past 26 games on the road, too.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 52-25-8
• ATS: 39-46
• O/U: 46-37-2

As mentioned, the Lightning and their goaltender have been money after a playoff loss since 2020. Can the trend continue, or will the Leafs reverse their fortunes in the first round finally?

Tampa Bay has posted 78 wins across the past 112 games at home over the past two-plus seasons, which is a .696 winning percentage. You don't win the Stanley Cup in back-to-back seasons without dominating at home, obviously. They're also 5-2 in the past seven playoff games as a favorite despite the Game 3 failure. However, the Lightning are just 4-11 in the past 15 games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or higher, so that's a bit of a concern, since everyone is a good team in the playoffs.

The Lightning have been ticking off OVER results on the reg, going 10-2 in the past 12 games overall, 8-1 in the past nine as a favorite and 6-1 in the past seven at home.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING CONCLUSION

Based on recent, and long-term, playoff history, it's hard to envision the Maple Leafs going up 3-1 in this series, with three opportunities to win and advance. It's well publicized that the Leafs haven't advanced past the first round since 2004, while the Lightning have hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup twice in the past two seasons. The playoff success is heavily weighted in Tampa's favor, obviously.

But perhaps the Leafs have learned a lot from past failures. Auston Matthews has been an absolute beast, not only with his 60 goals in the regular season, but with two goals and five points in this series so far. Mitchell Marner also has two goals and six points, averaging two points per game, in this series. Those two have been mostly invisible in previous playoff series, but they're front and center this year.

Still, despite the dynamic duo doing their thing for the Leafs, it's hard to bet against Vasilevskiy. He is one of the best in the world, and an even better stopper after a playoff loss. You have to keep backing Vassy and the Lightning, especially on home ice, especially after a playoff loss, until further notice. And, of course, bang the OVER.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS vs. TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING TRENDS

• Maple Leafs are 8-3 in the past 11 road games.
• Maple Leafs are 12-3 in the past 15 when playing on a day of rest.
• Maple Leafs are 5-9 in the past 14 playoff games as an underdog.
• Lightning are 57-25 in the past 82 home games.
• Lightning are 45-21 in the past 66 as a favorite.
• Lightning are 27-12 in the past 39 playoff games as a favorite.
• OVER is 22-5-2 in the past 29 road games for the Maple Leafs.
• OVER is 5-1-1 in the past seven as an underdog for the Leafs.
• OVER is 8-1-1 in the past 10 as a road 'dog for the Leafs.
• OVER is 10-2 in the past 12 games overall for the Lightning.
• OVER is 6-1 in the past seven at home for the Lightning.
• OVER is 8-1 in the past nine as a fave for the Lightning.
• Maple Leafs are 6-2 in the past eight trips to Tampa.
• OVER is 5-1 in the past six meetings.
• OVER is 6-2 in the past eight meetings in Tampa.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish