Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Toronto Maple Leafs Picks, Predictions, Odds

Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

The Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs meet at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Ont. on Tuesday night for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, a best-of-seven series. The series is tied 2-2. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on ESPN2.

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Score Prediction

Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3

Best Bet

Lightning +110
Over 6.5 (-118)

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS PREDICTIONS

It's well documented at this point. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won the Stanley Cup in each of the past two seasons, while the Toronto Maple Leafs haven't won Lord Stanley's Cup since 1967. In fact, the Leafs haven't even advanced past the first round of the playoff since 2004.

These teams have exchanged blows in the first four games, with neither side really gaining an upper hand. In Game 1, it appeared the Leafs were going to write a completely different story, winning 5-0. Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner, who had been very quiet in previous playoff failures, showed out in the opener. But Game 2 was a different story, with the Lightning winning 5-3 in Toronto to grab home-ice advantage.

The Leafs surprised the Lightning with a 5-2 win in Game 3, seizing back home-ice advantage, before the Lightning pounded the Leafs 7-3 in Game 4. So it's essentially a best-of-three series now, with two games scheduled in Toronto. Will the Leafs finally get over the hump, or are more failures in the postseason right around the corner? It's hard to bet against the two-time defending champs.

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TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ODDS

Lightning +110
Maple Leafs -120
Lightning +1.5 (-233)
Maple Leafs -1.5 (+200)
Over 6.5 (-118)
Under 6.5 (+110)

More Odds | Futures Odds

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Tuesday, May 10, 2022
• Matchup: Atlantic vs. Atlantic
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena
• Location: Toronto, Ont.
• TV-Time: ESPN2, 7:30 p.m. ET

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 53-25-8
• ATS: 40-46
• O/U: 47-37-2

The Lightning turn to Andrei Vasilevskiy time and time again when the chips are down, and he rarely disappoints. After a playoff loss in Game 3, he helped the team to a victory, and he is now 16-0 following a playoff loss since 2020.

But Vasilevskiy has still been very giving, as Toronto has scored at least three goals in all four games during this season, averaging 4.0 goals per game so far. Vasilevskiy is 2-2-0 with a 3.54 GAA and .888 SV%, which are rather marginal numbers by his standards. In other words, we have yet to see his best, and that might be bad news for the Leafs.

The Lightning have won seven of the past 10 games overall, while going 8-4 in the previous 12 trips to Toronto. The OVER has cashed in six of the past seven games overall, too, although defense will likely tighten up a little bit as this series goes on. It has to, right?

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

• SU: 56-23-7
• ATS: 41-45
• O/U: 48-31-7

The Maple Leafs are desperate to just win a playoff series, and then go from there. As mentioned, they haven't been to the second round since 2004, and beating the two-time defending Stanley Cup champs would give this team, and this fan base, some much-needed confidence. Well, the fan base has plenty of confidence, albeit baseless confidence. The expectations from the Toronto fan base, even if they are able to win this series, are still absolutely crazy.

Toronto has still won five of the past seven games overall, and it is 6-1 in the past seven games on home ice. Of course, that most recent loss was in Game 2, so it's like a fresh wound for the Leafs fan base. the Leafs are 7-1 in the previous eight when favored, too.

In terms of totals, the OVER is 4-1 in the past five games for the Leafs, and they have scored three or more goals in seven straight, while averaging 4.0 goals during the impressive span. The Leafs have yielded a total of 14 goals in the past three games, too, so OVER bettors certainly have to like their chances.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS CONCLUSION

The offense just keeps coming in this series, which isn't a surprise considering the offensive star power on both sides of the ice. The big dogs have barked loudly in this series, too, as Marner and Matthews each have two goals and six points through four games, while the Leafs have six players with at least two goals. John Tavares has been conspicuously absent, with just two assists and a minus-3 rating, and he has drawn the ire of fans. Justin Holl has taken a beating from the fans, and even the media, too, and the Toronto defense as a whole has struggled.

If the Leafs want to come up big in Game 5 and beyond, it will need to slow Victor Hedman. He has as goal and a team-high six points in these playoffs, while Ross Colton actually leads the team with three goals. The Leafs have done a good job of keeping Brayden Point down, as he has just a goal and an assist with a minus-4 rating, while Steven Stamkos has just a goal, two points and a minus-3. That might not last long, and if the big stars for the Lightning get hot, watch out.

The Lightning have the recent experience and success, and it seems the Maple Leafs just follow disappointment with more disappointment. When allocating your money, it's hard to throw good cash at the historically bad Leafs. The OVER might be the best bet here, however.

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING vs. TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS BETTING TRENDS

• Lightning are 7-3 in the past 10 games overall.
• Lightning are 2-5 in the past seven as an underdog.
• Lightning are 2-5 in the past seven as a road 'dog.
• Maple Leafs are 5-2 in the past seven games overall.
• Maple Leafs are 6-1 in the past seven home games.
• Maple Leafs are 7-1 in the past eight as a favorite.
• OVER is 11-2 in the past 13 games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 4-1 in the past five road games for the Lightning.
• OVER is 4-1 in the past five games for the Maple Leafs.
• Lightning are 8-4 in the past 12 trips to Toronto.
• OVER is 6-1 in the previous seven meetings.

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Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish