Do Aliens Exist? Aliens, Extraterrestrial Life Odds

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

9 minute read

The landscape for exotic prediction markets is shifting rapidly as institutional and retail traders react to new political catalysts. The primary focus of the week: the "UAP Disclosure" contract, which has seen a massive spike in volume and price following a series of high-level government statements.

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Updated on 2/20/26

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Odds That Aliens Exist

Prediction markets allow users to trade on whether or not the U.S. Government will announce that the existence of extraterrestrial life of technology exists before 2027. Below are the latest extraterrestrial life odds from Kalshi updated every 30 minutes:

The Trump Catalyst: Market Re-Evaluation

The market trajectory changed almost instantly after Donald Trump took to Truth Social to announce a new transparency initiative. Trump committed to ordering federal agencies to identify and declassify all records pertaining to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs).

Describing the data as “highly complex, but extremely important,” the announcement triggered a wave of "Yes" position buying. On Kalshi, the leading regulated U.S. prediction exchange, the probability of 2024 government confirmation climbed from 17% to 26% within a 24-hour trading window.

Obama’s Statements Provide Fundamental Support

The bullish sentiment wasn't driven by a single headline. Fundamental support for the disclosure market was bolstered by former President Barack Obama during a recent appearance with Brian Tyler Cohen.

When asked to address the reality of extraterrestrial phenomena, Obama’s response of, "They're Real" provided a significant tailwind for the market. While he noted a lack of evidence regarding specific lab facilities or contact, the admission from a former commander-in-chief has led traders to re-price the "Disclosure" risk, moving it from a fringe asset to a high-activity trade.

Quantitative Breakdown: Mapping the Disclosure Trade

For those looking to manage a position in the "Great Reveal" sector, here is the current market technicals:

• The Instrument: "Will the U.S. confirm the existence of extraterrestrials before 2027?"
• Trading Trend: While "No" positions still maintain a price advantage, "Yes" contracts have nearly tripled in value since Q1, moving from a $0.09 floor to the current $0.26 range.
• Execution: Kalshi operates on a binary contract system. Each contract is priced between $0.01 and $0.99, settling at $1.00 if the event is verified. This allows traders to hedge against or speculate on government transparency milestones with precision.

The Bottom Line

Regardless of one’s personal stance on the UAP phenomenon, the "Disclosure Market" has emerged as one of the most volatile non-traditional assets of the year. With a presidential directive now on the horizon, the short side of this market is facing unprecedented pressure.

In professional trading, when the "smart money" begins to follow political rumors, a price correction is usually imminent. Whether the ultimate "truth" is revealed or not, the market is currently priced for a major transparency event.

Kalshi is one of the best prediction markets apps available, but for sports bettors using the platform it may be difficult for users to convert contract prices to american betting odds. Check out our prediction market odds converter to convert contract prices to american moneyline odds.

Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 5 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson