UEFA Champions League Final: PSG vs Inter Predictions, Odds and Betting Tips

Dylan Wilkerson Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Munich hosts two of Europe’s best in this year’s showpiece Champions League final. Inter Milan edged past Barcelona in the semi-final to book their plane ticket to Germany, as PSG overcame Arsenal after 180 entertaining minutes.

Domestic football’s most coveted European prize dangles precariously between the two finalists. The bookmaker’s PSG vs Inter Milan prediction leans towards the French as favourites, who’re eyeing their first ever Champions League crown. In the Italian camp, Simeone Inzaghi will be piecing together a game plan to rectify the final defeat to Manchester City in 2023.

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Analysis of the Match

The grand finale of Europe's premier club competition sets the stage for a historic first encounter between Paris Saint-Germain, and three-time champions Inter Milan. Both sides boast a clear identity, embodying distinct and contrasting styles of play. Given their thrilling semi-final performances, the Munich showdown promises to be one for the ages. 

For Paris Saint-Germain, the post-Kylian Mbappé era has been fraught with challenges. Despite dominating domestically and securing a treble with a Coupe de France victory over Reims last Saturday, Luis Enrique's team stumbled early in the Champions League, managing only one win in their first five matches. 

However, from December, the Spanish manager discovered the right formula to harness the potential of his young squad. With an average starting age of just 23.2 years, PSG have the fourth youngest team in the tournament, yet they displayed remarkable talent. 

By winning their last three group-stage matches against RB Salzburg, Manchester City, and Stuttgart, PSG secured a play-off qualification and never looked back. Their staggering 19 goals across four knockout rounds, with victories over Liverpool, Aston Villa, and Arsenal, highlight their significant progress this season. Now, they need to finish the business by getting their hands on the coveted trophy.

Inter Milan, meanwhile, are making their second Champions League final appearance in just three years. Under Simone Inzaghi, the Italians impressed with their organization and defensive solidity, recording eight clean sheets—more than any other team in the tournament. 

Confidently playing within their well-drilled 3-5-2 formation, the Nerazzurri are one of the competition’s most efficient counter-attacking outfits. Their five goals away from home against both Bayern Munich and Barcelona showcase their offensive prowess, underscored by an indomitable team spirit.

Their dramatic comeback against Barcelona in the semi-final second leg is already hailed as a classic in modern European football. 

Inter aim to draw upon the experience gained two seasons ago when, against the odds, they went close to equalise against Manchester City in Istanbul. On Saturday, the Italians aim to turn a positive, but also disappointing season, into an iconic chapter in their storied history.

PSG Analysis and Form

Paris Saint-Germain prepare for their second-ever Champions League final, eager to secure the trophy they missed in their 1-0 defeat to Bayern Munich in 2020. 

This time, however, the Parisians enter as favourites, primarily due to their excellent attacking displays. PSG leads the competition in non-penalty expected goals (npxG) with an impressive 31.0 and boasts the second-highest average of progressive carries per 90 minutes at 31.5. A high press, intense play, and possession dominance—averaging 59.6%—are hallmarks of manager Luis Enrique's strategy and key to the French champions' success.

Despite a challenging start in the tournament's new format, PSG have won in nine of their last 11 matches, scoring an average of 2.38 goals per game in the knockout stages. Matches involving PSG this season have been anything but mundane, with the team averaging 18.6 shots per Champions League outing, second only to Bayern Munich's 20.5.

Ousmane Dembélé has been a standout performer, netting eight goals and leading the player shots tally with an average of 4.3 per game across 14 appearances. Equally remarkable were the contributions from former Inter Milan wing-back Achraf Hakimi, who averages 0.31 assists and 4.6 shot-creating actions per 90 minutes in the Champions League. 

Additionally, Italian goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma has delivered crucial performances, particularly against Liverpool and Arsenal, aiding Luis Enrique's journey to his second Champions League final, following his victory with Barcelona over Juventus in 2015.

Inter Milan Analysis and Form

For large spells of the season, Inter Milan dreamt of replicating their famous 2010 treble, but a disappointing run in April, with just three wins from 10 matches across all competitions, dashed their hopes of capturing Italian silverware. 

In Serie A, the Nerazzurri faltered at crucial moments, dropping points in between Champions League ties against Bayern Munich and Barcelona. Last week, they conceded their Scudetto defense to Antonio Conte’s Napoli. With 13 fewer points on the table and 13 more goals conceded compared to the previous season, Inter have struggled to meet their past Serie A standards. Yet, they have reserved their finest performances for the Champions League.

Simone Inzaghi’s side's campaign in the league phase of the Champions League has been near-flawless, with the team securing eight clean sheets and suffering only one loss—a stoppage-time defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. Inzaghi’s men have trailed on the scoreboard for a mere 16 minutes, comprising six against Bayern Munich and Barcelona, and four against Leverkusen, amounting to just 1.24% of their total playing time. 

Their fourth-place league finish, bolstered by a commanding Round of 16 victory over Feyenoord, reaffirmed Inter’s status among Europe’s elite.

The quarter-finals provided a spectacle, with their matches against Bayern Munich and Barcelona averaging 4.4 goals in regular time. Inter’s knack for stoppage-time goals, both in Germany and at the San Siro, underscores their determination and resilience as they aim to cap off the season by lifting Europe's premier club trophy.

Head to Head 

Paris Saint-Germain and Inter Milan have faced each other five times since 2014. However, none of these encounters came in UEFA competition. Four games were friendlies, while one was part of the 2016 International Champions Cup. The French claimed victories in the first three meetings, but Inter managed to claim their first in the most recent duel.

The two sides last met in July 2023 in a Tokyo friendly, where the Nerazzurri overturned a second-half deficit to win 2-1. Goals in the 81st and 83rd minute exposed PSG’s vulnerability late on, something Simone Inzaghi’s men will surely recall.

Although historical relevance is limited due to the friendly nature of the most recent matchups, the recent trend has leaned toward goals. Both teams have scored in each of the last three. With the stakes being far higher this time, we can expect an intense game and hope that the previous games are an indicator of an eventful finals.

If we look at the last clash statistically, it was an open and enjoyable game. PSG held the ball more often and thus created most chances. The Parisians had a stunning six attempts outside the box, somewhat expected in a friendly match. Their playstyle today may include something similar in this matchup.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

PSG possible lineups: Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

Inter possible lineups: Sommer; Bisseck, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Martinez, Thuram.

While PSG arrive in Munich fully fit and without injuries, Inter are dealt a few blows ahead of the finals. Luis Enrique’s side not only wrapped up the domestic double with a Coupe de France triumph last week, but also carries the momentum of nine wins in 11 Champions League matches. 

With no injuries to report, the Spaniard has a full-strength squad at his disposal, including in-form Ousman Dembele, who has racked up eight goals, for a total of 0.69 per 90 minutes. He has been involved in 12 goals in this campaign, and his chase for the Ballon d’Or is likely to see him push for more.

Behind him, Achraf Hakimi has quietly been one of PSG’s most effective creators, averaging 4.6 shot-creating actions and 0.31 assists per 90 minutes in Europe. In midfield, João Neves and Vitinha provide balance and control, while Gianluigi Donnarumma has delivered clutch performances in goal, notably against Liverpool and Arsenal.

Inter approaches the final with a few fitness concerns that may impact the game. Piotr Zielinski and Benjamin Pavard are both expected to miss out, as neither was available for the Como clash. Both have played over 20 games this season for the Nerazzuri, and their absence will be impactful in the midfield.

Still, the core of the squad remains intact. Lautaro Martínez leads the line with trademark aggression and sharp finishing. In 13 matches in the Champions League this season, he scored nine goals, overcoming his xG of 7.05. Even more impressive, out of his 19 shots taken, 17 were on target, taking only 2.38 shots per goal scored.

Nicolò Barella and Henrikh Mkhitaryan remain central to controlling the rhythm of play. In defense, Francesco Acerbi and Alessandro Bastoni bring experience and composure, vital in absorbing PSG’s attacking pressure. Special praise goes to Yann Sommer, who has been a pillar of defense on the goal line.

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Dylan Wilkerson

Dylan Wilkerson has over 2 years of experience reporting and analyzing the sports betting industry for various sites. His portfolio includes work for SportsHandle and Action Network, in addition to VegasInsider. His favorite sports are the NFL, College Football, The PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and Cricket. Dylan has a broad and deep understanding of various sports-related topics. More from Dylan Wilkerson