Benfica vs Bayern Munich Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Benfica will face Bayern Munich on Tuesday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Day 3 action from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC.

Bayern Munich has already secured their spot in the Round of 16, presenting Benfica with a prime opportunity to join them. A draw would be sufficient for Bruno Lage's team to advance. They could even afford a narrow defeat as long as Boca Juniors fails to score at least six goals against Auckland City.

Vincent Kompany is expected to rotate his Bayern squad to conserve energy for the knockout stages. Finishing at the top of Group C would likely lead to a matchup against Chelsea instead of Flamengo. Kompany will encourage his team to focus on the task at hand and complete their objectives.

Bayern will continue to play in their usual style. However, Benfica has demonstrated quality in this season's Champions League and shown resilience in their matches against Boca Juniors.

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Analysis of the Match

Bayern Munich is currently at the top of Group C, having secured a spot in the knockout stage. This upcoming match will focus primarily on Benfica's efforts to advance. Os Encarnados need at least a draw to remain in the competition, while a narrow loss could also be enough if Boca Juniors fails to overcome their goal difference deficit.

The Bavarians have dominated the group so far and may choose to rotate key players to conserve energy for the knockout rounds. In contrast, Benfica must adopt a cautious approach from the outset and prioritize their defensive strategy. If Bayern manages to score, Benfica will need to go all out in search of goals.

In their last encounter, Benfica demonstrated their ability to hold off the German giants. Despite having a significant statistical disadvantage, with Bayern recording 1.27 expected goals (xG) from 24 shots (10 on target), Benfica secured a narrow 1-0 victory with just one shot that had an xG of 0.08.

However, this competition tells a different story. Both teams excel in various attacking metrics. Benfica and Bayern are at the top for expected goals (7.4 vs 6.7), shots on target per match (9.5 vs 10.5), and big chances created (13 vs 13).

Both teams favor an offensive style, as reflected in their touches in the opposition box statistics. Bayern leads this metric with 119 touches, while Benfica follows closely in second place with 89.

Benfica Analysis and Form

Benfica's opening game was spectacular, but they ended up dropping points against the underdogs, Boca Juniors. The match featured four goals, three red cards, an own goal, and a penalty, ultimately finishing in a 2-2 draw.

However, Benfica quickly bounced back with a convincing 6-0 victory over Auckland City. This win significantly boosted their statistics, giving them the highest expected goals (xG) in the competition so far. With a total of 7.4 expected goals in just two matches, they lead Bayern Munich, their next opponent, who has an xG of 6.7. Nevertheless, when facing a team like Bayern, these statistics may not hold significant value.

Interestingly, Benfica was particularly dominant in the second half of both games. Given that their survival in the tournament hinges on the outcome of the match against Bayern, we can anticipate a more cautious first half as both teams assess each other's tactics.

Defensively, Benfica has been solid but not without flaws. They conceded two goals against Boca Juniors despite having a man advantage for much of the game. They also held Auckland City at bay until late in the first half before pulling away.

One area where Benfica could catch Bayern off guard is in their ability to win possession in the final third of the field. They lead the competition with an average of 6.5 possessions won per game in that zone and have also won possession in the midfield 51 times. Maintaining control of the game will be crucial for Benfica.

Bayern Munich Analysis and Form

The favorites in Group C have lived up to expectations so far. They began with a commanding 10-0 victory against Auckland City on Matchday One, followed by a hard-fought 2-1 win over Boca Juniors. This match tested their resolve against aggressive opponents and served as excellent preparation for their upcoming game against Benfica.

Statistically, Bayern Munich is the most clinical team in this competition. They lead in several key areas, including goals per match (6.0), shots on target per match (10.5), and big chances created (13, tied with Benfica). They also excel in touches in the opposition's box, with 119 noted.

However, defensively, Bayern has shown some vulnerability at times. Boca Juniors managed to accumulate 0.77 expected goals (xG) and forced Manuel Neuer to make a couple of crucial saves. Auckland City managed only a single shot on target, but a similar opportunity could be all that a player like Ángel Di María needs to capitalize.

Like their upcoming opponent, Bayern excels in midfield and ball recovery. They lead the competition in possessions won in the final third, averaging 8.0 per match. Furthermore, they have maintained discipline, committing just 12 fouls per match and receiving only one yellow card so far.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Benfica last faced Bayern Munich in November of the 2024/25 season during the group stages of the Champions League. The match took place in Germany, where Bayern typically presents a formidable challenge in UEFA's flagship domestic competition.

From the start, the game followed a pattern dominated by Bayern Munich, who controlled the match thoroughly. Benfica managed only one shot on goal throughout the entire game, which was a speculative attempt from near the halfway line.

Benfica was fortunate to keep the scoreline respectable, as Bayern recorded 25 shots, had an expected goals (xG) tally of 1.45, and earned ten corners. The deadlock was broken by Jamal Musiala, who is currently the Golden Boot frontrunner in this competition, with a goal just over 20 minutes into the match.

Since 2016, Bayern has played seven matches against Benfica, all of which were in the Champions League. Bayern has won six of these encounters, with one match ending in a draw. The aggregate score from these seven fixtures stands at 20-5, highlighting the one-sided nature of this matchup in recent years.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Benfica Possible Starting Lineup:

• Trubin; Aursnes, António Silva, Otamendi, Carreras; Di María, Renato Sanches, Kökçü, Barreiro, Aktürkoğlu; Pavlidis.

Bayern Munich Possible Starting Lineup:

• Neuer; Laimer, Tah, Upamecano, Guerreiro; Kimmich, Pavlovic; Olise, Gnabry, Coman; Kane.

Jamal Musiala sustained an injury in the match against Boca Juniors but completed full training on Sunday and is expected to be available for selection. However, he is unlikely to start. Due to Thomas Müller limping off in the last match, Serge Gnabry may take his place in the starting lineup. One of Joshua Kimmich or Leon Goretzka is likely to be rested, which could allow Pavlovic to feature in midfield. Dayot Upamecano is set to start at the heart of the defense alongside new signing Jonathan Tah.

Benfica will be without Andrea Belotti, who received a straight red card in their opening match. Antonio Silva is expected to partner with veteran Nicolás Otamendi in central defense. In midfield, Orkun Kökçü and Leandro Barreiro are likely to start following strong performances against Auckland City.

In attack, manager Bruno Lage faces a decision between Gianluca Prestianni and Kerem Aktürkoğlu for a starting role.

Odds Discussion

Bayern Munich has already secured its spot in the Round of 16 and remains the favorite to win, with most bookmakers offering odds around even money.

In their last seven head-to-head encounters, Bayern has won six times, including a narrow 1-0 victory in November 2024. This represents the highest odds for a Bayern victory in those matchups.

For those considering Benfica, the double chance bet (1X) suggests a 57% implied probability that the Portuguese side will not lose (-133 on the moneyline). In this context, the Asian Handicap +0.5 for Bruno Lage's team offers a double chance that may be more favorable, with odds approaching even money.

The "Both Teams To Score" market also appears promising, with an implied probability of 58% (-138 on the moneyline).

On the other hand, the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market shares similar odds, indicating that it might be wise for punters to steer clear of this option. Instead, combining a double chance bet for either team with a "Both Teams To Score - Yes" selection could potentially result in returns that more than double your stake.

BEST BET: Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals (+120)

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Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain