Benfica vs. Chelsea Predictions, Odds and Pick

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Benfica will face Chelsea on Saturday at 4:00 p.m. ET in the Club World Cup Round of 16 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Some matchups seem inevitable, even if the path to them takes unexpected turns. Chelsea and Bayern Munich were expected to top their groups, but unexpected losses altered the narrative.

Chelsea slipped behind Flamengo after defeats, while Benfica stunned Bayern to take first place. However, despite these twists, the anticipated outcome has materialized as Chelsea is set to face Benfica.

The Conference League winners are favorites and hope to add more silverware under the leadership of Enzo Maresca. Nevertheless, Benfica has already demonstrated its ability to upset giants, even when the odds are stacked against them.

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Analysis of the Match

Benfica faces Chelsea after surprisingly topping Group C, edging out one of the tournament's favorites, Bayern Munich. 

Riding high from a notable 1-0 win over the Bavarians, Benfica's goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin starred with a standout performance, a feat that will be crucial against Chelsea's dynamic and young attackers.

Led by experienced manager Bruno Lage, Benfica are expected to field a similar lineup, provided the sweltering 36-degree heat hasn't exhausted his players. 

With six wins against European sides this season, Benfica has proven to be a formidable opponent, losing only 14 out of 53 UEFA matches since the 2020/21 season.

Meanwhile, Chelsea, who finished second in Group B after a narrow defeat to Flamengo, is eager to progress further. Newcomer Liam Delap is set to start after scoring in their 3-0 win over ES Tunis, especially with Nicolas Jackson suspended. 

Manager Enzo Maresca, confident in his squad's depth, is likely to field his strongest team. Chelsea's aggressive starts have seen them lead at half-time in all their Club World Cup matches, contrasting with Benfica's historically slower starts. 

While Benfica's win over a significantly rotated Bayern side was impressive, the resultant fatigue could tip the scales in Chelsea's favor, possibly leading to the game being decided in extra time or beyond. 

Given that past meetings have been narrowly decided, this promises to be another tightly contested affair.

Benfica Analysis and Form

Benfica flipped Group C on its head on the final matchday as they took a swing at Bundesliga champions Bayern Munich, resulting in the Germans sprawling out on the canvas. Admittedly, it was a much-rotated Bayern eleven, with the likes of Harry Kane, Jamal Musial, Michael Olise, and Joshua Kimmich rested from the start. 

In a game where a victory would confirm progression, the Portuguese did enough in testing conditions. 

However, Benfica's performances haven't exactly covered themselves in glory. A penalty was needed in the first half against Auckland to save their blushes going into half-time. 

After a delay in restarting the second half, As Águias registered five goals, but that was expected against semi-professional opposition.

After taking the lead against Bayern Munich, the Portuguese handed over possession and control of the middle third, attempting just four more shots across the remaining 80 minutes. They got the job done against good opposition, but it was by no means a head-turning performance ahead of meeting Chelsea in the Round of 16.

Benfica will need to improve both defensively and offensively if they are to outscore a Premier League outfit that will likely create chances in the final third.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

Chelsea's second-placed finish in the group stages has, inadvertently, ensured they're now on the opposite side of the draw to Paris Saint-Germain, Bayern Munich and, potentially, Real Madrid. That has moved them into fifth-favorites in the betting, with punters beginning to realize that Chelsea has an extremely good chance of progressing to the quarter-finals and then the final four.

We saw a much-changed eleven against Espérance de Tunis. Still, it dispatched its opponents comfortably in the end. Chelsea's large squad and ability to rest and rotate might hand them an edge here against Benfica. 

After all, the Portuguese team just played against Bayern Munich in conditions that required breaks in the game for players to hydrate due to safety concerns.

Cole Palmer, Pedro Neto, and Moises Caicedo were all rested on MD 3. As were Marc Cucurella, Levi Colwill, and Reece James. Those six players are in Chelsea's best eleven by the time the Premier League rolls around in August.

Liam Delap opened his Chelsea career with a goal against the Tunisians. Nicolas Jackson's red card was not only unnecessary, but it also opened the door for the former Ipswich and Manchester City striker to swoop in and grab his opportunity with both hands.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

This match marks the first meeting in 12 years between these two-time Champions League winners. 

Chelsea previously overcame Benfica in the 2013 Europa League final in Amsterdam, securing a 2-1 victory. The Blues, managed by Rafa Benitez, took the lead in the second half with a goal from Fernando Torres, but their advantage was short-lived as Cardoso equalized for Benfica from the penalty spot just eight minutes later.

The decisive moment came when defender Branislav Ivanovic found the back of the net deep into stoppage time, sealing Chelsea's fourth continental title.

The two clubs also faced off in the 2011/12 season, with Chelsea defeating Benfica 3-1 on aggregate during the quarter-finals on their way to winning the Champions League against Bayern Munich.

Os Encarnados have faced English clubs 40 times, with Chelsea being the only team they've been unable to beat. Conversely, Chelsea have only been defeated in three of their 15 encounters with Portuguese sides.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Benfica's possible starting lineup:

Trubin; Aursnes, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Sanches, Leandro Barreiro; Di Maria, Prestianni, Schjelderup; Pavlidis

Chelsea's possible starting lineup:

Sanchez; James, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Cucurella; Fernandez, Moises Caicedo; Madueke, Palmer, Neto; Delap

Not much has changed for Benfica in terms of availability. The long-term absentees remain on the sidelines, and it's still too soon for Tomas Araujo to make the team. 

Things are more changeable for Chelsea. Enzo Maresca will once again be without striker Nicolas Jackson. The Senegal international was shown a straight red card for a tackle in the 3-1 defeat to Flamengo on Matchday Two. The regular one-match ban was doubled, meaning he will be absent again here.

That's not a massive blow to Chelsea's chances. Liam Delap has proved an adequate stand-in during his first few appearances for the Blues. He scored his first Chelsea goal in the 3-0 win over Espérance de Tunis on Matchday Three. The former Ipswich man will look to add that from the start here. 

Odds Discussion

The Portuguese are rightly considered the underdog team as they prepare for battle against the Premier League outfit. The price placed on Benfica's hopes of progression does, however, feel a little high, with Chelsea at odds with the bookmakers' quotes.

After the Blues' 3-0 win against Espérance de Tunis on Matchday Three, Chelsea moved into the fifth-favorites to win the competition. They're still behind PSG, Man City, Bayern, and Real Madrid. 

If they compete well against Benfica and do what the bookmakers expect of them - win in 90 minutes - then that price will shorten drastically as Enzo Maresca's men waltz into the quarter-final.

However, this is Champions League-level opposition they have to dispatch. It certainly won't be straightforward, highlighted in the bookmaker's pricing of Both Teams to Score - Yes. 

Either side is expected to find the net going off the odds-on prices. It's a sentiment shared by our in-house data projection model, BETSiE, which predicts a relatively close and entertaining affair: Benfica 1.47xG vs. 1.95xG Chelsea.

In the player markets, no one is odds-on to score, but Cole Palmer is the only player given over a 50% chance to register a goal or assist. Priced at +160 to contribute, he could be key to Chelsea reaching the quarter-finals.

BEST BET: Over 2.5 Goals (+100)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain