Chelsea vs. PSG Predictions, Odds and Pick

Doug Ziefel Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

After nine years, Chelsea and PSG are set to meet, sharing numerous similarities. Both clubs have wealthy owners, ambitious aspirations, youthful rosters, and both have faced setbacks in the group stage against Brazilian teams. Additionally, both have already claimed European trophies this season.

Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea and Luis Enrique’s PSG have both demonstrated their credentials as worthy finalists in this first edition of the revamped tournament. However, Chelsea's route to the final has been comparatively simpler, which helps explain why PSG is widely viewed as the favorite. PSG has showcased remarkable form in 2025, with notable victories over three English clubs in the Champions League and an impressive 18-1 aggregate score against European teams outside France, underlining their superiority.

On the other hand, Chelsea enters the final with renewed confidence from recent acquisitions, adopting a mindset of having little to lose, which might enable them to play with greater freedom. Nevertheless, the odds reflect a clear favoritism toward PSG. According to bookmakers, there’s a 63% chance that PSG will secure victory within 90 minutes, underscoring their strong performance in Europe this season.

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(Featured Image Credit: Vincent Carchietta - Imagn Images)

Updated on 7/13/25

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Analysis of the Match

Both teams approach the match with a similar philosophy. Each manager emphasizes patience in possession and encourages a high press against the opposition. However, PSG emerges as the favorite, expected to assert their style of play against Chelsea.

Luis Enrique has transformed PSG into a formidable force, setting the standard in global football with their fast-paced approach and abundant creativity. Opposing defenses have struggled to deal with the positional fluidity within the PSG squad. Players like Desire Doue, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and the ever-dangerous Ousmane Dembele can seamlessly shift positions, whether on the wings or through the center.

Their relentless work rate off the ball fuels PSG's high press, ensuring that rival teams are continually under pressure. In midfield, the combination of Vitinha, Neves, and Ruiz creates a balanced unit that controls the game's rhythm, with solid support from two of the most tenacious full-backs around, Hakimi and Mendes.

While Chelsea is aware they face an uphill battle, they possess the skills to challenge PSG. Enzo Fernandez will aim to disrupt the midfield with consistent fouling, while also having the vision to deliver a game-changing pass that could ignite a counterattack. Given PSG's strong defensive capabilities, Chelsea might need a touch of brilliance to find the back of the net.

Fortunately for Enzo Maresca, he has several players who can provide that spark. João Pedro caught everyone's attention in the semi-finals, scoring two stunning goals on his starting debut for Chelsea, making it likely that he'll start in this crucial match as well.

Additionally, Pedro Neto and Cole Palmer bring the necessary speed and creativity to accelerate Chelsea’s attack, putting PSG on alert if they push too many players forward.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

Chelsea’s journey to the final has been tumultuous, yet they have undeniably earned their spot after a commanding 2-0 victory over Fluminense in the semi-finals. João Pedro was the standout performer, scoring two goals on his debut for the club. However, it was a collective effort, with Chelsea demonstrating excellent control for much of the match.

The Blues have progressed significantly throughout the tournament and have showcased their best football during the knockout stages. Enzo Maresca’s squad appears to be entirely transformed from the team that lost 3-1 to Flamengo in the group stage, making them a capable contender in the final, even as the underdogs.

Defensively, Chelsea has been impressive; their opponents at the Club World Cup average just 7.83 shots per game (excluding extra time), well below the tournament average of 12.88. Limiting their opponents’ chances will be crucial in this final.

In the round of 16, Chelsea faced a tense moment against Benfica. While they seemed to be in control, a two-hour delay starting in the 86th minute disrupted their momentum, allowing their Portuguese rivals to push the match into extra time. Ultimately, Chelsea prevailed with a 4-1 victory. Maresca will be looking for Chelsea to maintain their composure and resilience as they face off against PSG.

PSG Analysis and Form

PSG maintained their impressive form by defeating Real Madrid 4-0 in the semi-finals, entering their matchup with Chelsea brimming with confidence. Les Parisiens have established themselves as the benchmark in European football, having outclassed Inter in the Champions League Final at the end of May.

They now have the opportunity to be recognized as the best club team in the world, and it would take a bold person to bet against them. Luis Enrique’s squad has been remarkably solid defensively, conceding just one goal in their six matches at the Club World Cup.

That lone goal came during a 1-0 loss to Botafogo in the group stage, where PSG outshot their opponents by 12 but failed to convert. Since then, the PSG offense has bounced back impressively, scoring 12 goals across four matches.

In the round of 16, they triumphed over Inter Miami with a convincing 4-0 victory. Their performance in the quarter-finals was even more striking, generating five clear chances in a 2-0 win against Bayern Munich. The victory against Real Madrid was undoubtedly their best showing to date. Enrique's side controlled the game, holding 68% possession, and they finished with an expected goals (xG) of 2.77, significantly higher than their opponents' 0.78.

If PSG can replicate that level of performance, they should have no trouble securing the world title.

Head-to-Head

Sunday’s final in New Jersey will mark the eighth encounter between Chelsea and PSG. The Blues are one of the English clubs, along with Manchester City, that PSG has faced most frequently.

PSG boasts a strong recent record in their meetings, having won the last two matches in the 2015/16 Champions League, both by a score of 2-1. The French team is unbeaten in their last four clashes with Chelsea.

In fact, during the Round of 16 of the 2014/15 Champions League, PSG managed to secure two draws against Chelsea (1-1 in Paris and 2-2 at Stamford Bridge), allowing them to advance on the away goals rule.

Chelsea’s last victory over PSG dates back to April 2014, during the Champions League quarter-finals, where they secured a 2-0 win at home thanks to goals from Andre Schürrle and Demba Ba. On that occasion, PSG was eliminated despite winning the first leg 3-1.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Potential Starting Lineup for Chelsea:

Sanchez; Gusto, Colwill, Chalobah, Cucurella; Fernandez, Essugo; Neto, Palmer, Nkunku; João Pedro.

Potential Starting Lineup for PSG:

Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Ruiz; Doue, Dembele, Kvaratskhelia.

As European champions, PSG are expected to maintain the same starting eleven that triumphed over Real Madrid. Defenders Pacho and Lucas Hernandez remain unavailable following their red cards in the quarter-final against Bayern Munich.

Fortunately for PSG, Portuguese midfielder João Neves, who received a booking from Polish referee Szymon Marciniak during the semi-final, will be eligible to play due to the reset of yellow cards after the quarter-finals. Neves will join Vitinha and Fabian Ruiz to form the midfield trio, while Ousmane Dembele is likely to retain his position in the attack.

Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca faces selection dilemmas as Liam Delap and Levi Colwill return from their suspensions. New signing João Pedro has made a strong impression, netting twice in the semi-final, so he is expected to start.

Colwill is likely to be paired with Trevoh Chalobah in central defense. Moises Caicedo’s ankle injury sustained against Palmeiras raises questions about his fitness, and Romeo Lavia is also dealing with an injury. Dário Essugo is the leading candidate to play alongside Enzo Fernandez in midfield. Furthermore, Reece James will compete with Malo Gusto for the starting right-back position.

Odds Discussion and Pick

The Club World Cup Final presents an interesting opportunity for bettors as PSG and Chelsea face off in New York. Bookmakers have the Parisians as strong favorites to win the match and secure the trophy, setting their odds at -167 with a -1.0 Asian Handicap.

To see returns, PSG must win by at least two goals. A one-goal victory would result in refunded stakes, while a draw or a Chelsea win would favor those betting on the underdogs with a +1.0 Asian handicap.

For the first time since May 11, 2025, Chelsea finds themselves as the underdogs. They were significant outsiders against Newcastle in the Premier League on that day, which they lost 2-0. This memory may serve as a caution for any Chelsea supporters hoping they can turn the tide this time.

The Asian goal line is set at 3.0, where exactly three goals will result in stakes being returned, and four or more goals are required for the ‘over’ to succeed. Throughout the tournament, the average number of goals per match in regulation time has been 2.98, making this line in line with overall trends.

Odds for both teams to score have shortened; however, this bet hasn’t landed in any of PSG’s last eight competitive matches. Furthermore, seven of Chelsea’s last 11 matches have followed a similar pattern, averaging just 2.36 goals.

Given the possibility of a tight and disciplined final, backing the 'no' on the both teams to score market may be a viable option at odds against.

PICK: PSG -1.0 (-103)

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