Espérance de Tunis vs Chelsea Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Joseph Beguiristain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Espérance de Tunis will face Chelsea on Tuesday at 9:00 PM ET in Club World Cup Matchday 3 action from Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.

It’s a winner-takes-all scenario in Group D, as Chelsea and Espérance de Tunis head into Matchday 3, each with three points.

The Blues, coming off their Conference League victory, have a superior goal difference compared to their Tunisian rivals, which means that a draw would suffice for the Premier League side to advance.

As -333 favorites, bookmakers anticipate a comfortable win for Chelsea. However, with progression to the knockout stages at stake and following a hard-fought victory against Los Angeles FC (1.39 expected goals vs. 1.29 expected goals), the Tunisians may prove to be a challenging opponent.

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Analysis of the Match

Chelsea, coming off a surprising 3-1 defeat to Flamengo despite leading at halftime, needs just one point to secure their progression after their opening victory over Los Angeles FC.

Manager Enzo Maresca faces a crucial decision: was last week's defeat merely a setback, or does it indicate deeper issues within his squad?

Espérance de Tunis has had a mixed start, losing 2-0 to Flamengo before narrowly beating the MLS side 1-0, thanks to a goal from Youcef Belaïli.

For Chelsea, exiting the group stage in Philadelphia would be a significant failure, especially given their resources and reputation. Maresca is expected to field a strong lineup, avoiding tactical gambles in an effort to overpower Espérance.

On the other hand, the North Africans need a victory to remain in the tournament, which should add urgency to their approach.

However, creating significant scoring opportunities has been a challenge for Espérance, as they have generated the fewest 'big' chances (just two) along with Botafogo and Urawa Red Diamonds in the competition so far. The absence of their star player, Youcef Belaïli, makes their task even more difficult.

This match is virtually a knockout tie, promising to be an entertaining contest.

While Chelsea has the advantage in player quality, Espérance might be able to exploit any physical edge they possess. Expect an intense battle, with the Premier League side unlikely to settle for a draw, as they aim to regain momentum and deliver a strong performance.

Espérance de Tunis Analysis and Form

Espérance de Tunis secured their second-ever Club World Cup victory with a 1-0 win over LAFC. Bechir Ben Said was the hero of the match, saving a stoppage-time penalty that ensured the victory and marked Espérance's first-ever clean sheet in the tournament.

As they head into their final group game, Tunis must win to progress to the last 16, as they have an inferior goal difference compared to their rivals, Chelsea.

Youcef Belaïli played a key role in the attack against LAFC, scoring a goal and recording a team-high 13 touches in the box throughout the tournament. However, his suspension for accumulating bookings in both group games poses a significant challenge for the Tunisian champions.

Maher Kanzari's squad also features other talents, like Sasse, who made an impact off the bench against LAFC with three shots and three dribbles.

This marks Espérance's fourth appearance in the Club World Cup, having previously competed in 2011, 2018, and 2019. They enter their next match with high spirits, having lost just once since April.

Chelsea Analysis and Form

Chelsea are feeling the pressure ahead of their crucial final Group D clash against Tunisia's ES Tunis, needing at least a draw to secure their place in the last 16.

The tension increased after a 3-1 defeat to Flamengo, where the Blues initially took the lead with a goal from Pedro Neto. However, they quickly fell behind due to goals from Bruno Henrique and Danilo. A pivotal moment occurred when Jackson received a red card for a rash challenge, leaving Enzo Maresca's team with only ten men and vulnerable. Wallace Yan ultimately sealed the match for the Brazilian side.

Now, Chelsea must secure a victory over ES Tunis but could face Group C winners, possibly Bayern Munich, in the knockout stages.

Despite Neto's promising form, Chelsea has struggled with team cohesion and defensive errors, particularly noticeable in Robert Sánchez's distribution challenges. Manager Enzo Maresca is facing selection dilemmas amid tactical adjustments that have yet to take effect.

Additionally, the scorching conditions in Philadelphia, with temperatures exceeding 37°C, have disrupted the team's usual training routines, further complicating the preparations for the Conference League winners.

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Chelsea's 3-1 defeat to Flamengo marked their second loss in six intercontinental fixtures, with the first occurring against Corinthians in 2012.

Despite this setback, Enzo Maresca's squad has a commendable record against non-UEFA opponents, having secured victories against Palmeiras, Al-Hilal, Monterrey, and Los Angeles FC leading up to this crucial Matchday 3.

Chelsea, who are twice champions of Europe, made their Club World Cup debut in December 2012, winning 3-1 against Monterrey from Mexico.

On the other hand, Espérance de Tunis has three more Club World Cup appearances than Chelsea; however, this will be their first encounter with a European team.

The 2019 CAF Champions League winners have recorded wins against Al-Sadd twice, Chivas, and Los Angeles FC, but have also faced defeats against Flamengo, Al-Hilal, Al Ain, and Monterrey.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Possible Starting Lineup for Espérance de Tunis:

• Goalkeeper: Ben Saïd
• Defenders: Ben Ali, Amine Tougai, Meriah, Ben Hamida
• Midfielders: Ogbelu, Guenichi, Mokwana, Sasse, Jabri
• Forward: Rodrigues

Possible Starting Lineup for Chelsea:

• Goalkeeper: Sánchez
• Defenders: James, Adarabioyo, Colwill, Cucurella
• Midfielders: Lavia, Caicedo, Neto, Palmer, Madueke
• Forward: Delap

Star striker and recent match-winner Youcef Belaïli is suspended after receiving a booking. He is likely to be replaced by Archef Jabri, which will be the only change in the starting eleven from Matchday 2. Club captain Yassine Meriah, who has returned from a cruciate ligament injury just in time for the tournament, will play at the center of defense. Rodrigo Rodrigues, the Brazilian forward who has scored only five goals in all competitions this season, will continue to lead the attack.

Enzo Maresca is expected to field a strong lineup to avoid an early exit from the group stage, likely bringing back first-team players Roméo Lavia and Moisés Caicedo in midfield.

Reece James may return to right-back after Malo Gusto's struggles against Flamengo. With Nicolas Jackson suspended, new signing Liam Delap will start up front.

Cole Palmer, who has only scored one goal since January, will be looking to regain his form and help the Blues secure qualification for the Round of 16.

Odds Discussion

In this decisive match on the final matchday of the group stage, the winner will secure a place in the later stages of the competition. Bookmakers have favored Chelsea primarily due to the significant difference in quality and financial resources between the two teams. Chelsea is currently listed at -350 to win against Espérance de Tunis.

Although Espérance de Tunis won their last match against Los Angeles FC 1-0, the bookmakers have priced their chances of scoring in this game at near even odds, suggesting a 50/50 chance that the underdogs will find the net against Chelsea.

BETSiE supports this outlook, projecting 0.5 expected goals (xG) for the North Africans, while Chelsea has a substantially higher projection of 3.43 xG. If these projections hold, the Asian goal line of 2.75 set by the bookmakers may be a bit low. For bettors, focusing on goals in Matchday 3 could be a viable strategy.

Given their status as significant underdogs, Espérance de Tunis has a +1.5 Asian Handicap to meet. If they can keep the game close and maintain a low-scoring result, similar to their previous outings (0-2 and 1-0), then betting on them could offer potential value if the circumstances favor them.

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_{(Photo Credit: Nicolò Campo / Alamy Stock Photo)}

Joseph Beguiristain

Joseph Beguiristain is a South Florida native with 10-plus years of sports media experience. Before joining VegasInsider in July 2021, he wrote for the Sun-Sentinel and Miami Heat. More from Joseph Beguiristain