Inter Milan vs. Fluminense Predictions, Odds and Pick

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Inter Milan will face Fluminense on Monday at 3:00 p.m. ET in the Club World Cup Round of 16 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Inter Milan rose to the occasion by convincingly defeating River Plate, securing the top position in Group E.

Under the management of Cristian Chivu, who has been in charge for only two weeks, the Nerazzurri are still in the process of evolving. However, they demonstrated resilience by putting their 5-0 loss to PSG in the Champions League final behind them.

On the other hand, Fluminense, after a promising start against Borussia Dortmund and Ulsan HD, appeared more cautious in their recent match against Mamelodi Sundowns, seemingly playing to avoid defeat.

To effectively challenge Inter Milan, Fluminense will need to adopt a more aggressive approach, as Inter has created more scoring chances than any other team in the competition.

Bookmakers anticipate a challenging task for Renato Gaucho’s team, giving the Serie A outfit a 58% chance of victory (-140 on the moneyline) in the Inter Milan vs. Fluminense.

Looking to get in on the action? Be sure to check out our bet365 bonus code!

(Featured Image Credit: Steven Bisig - Imagn Images)

Updated on 6/30/25

bet365

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Bonus Code

VIBONUS

Claim $150

New customers only, 21+ (18+ in KY). Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, NJ, IA, IL, KY, IN, LA, NC, VA, PA, TN, OH only. Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets at bet365. Registration required. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. You must claim the offer via the bet365 app, within 30 days of registering your account. Once released, your Bonus Bets will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable.T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.

Analysis of the Match

Inter take on Fluminense for a place in the quarters. It’s an intriguing clash between one of the best sides in Europe and a leading name in South America. 

The Brazilian sides have demonstrated their quality at this Club World Cup so far, with all four advancing to the knockouts. Botafogo and Flamengo have already secured eye-catching wins over major European sides. Fogo beat PSG, and Mengão secured a win against Chelsea. This is Flu’s chance to grab the headlines.

The group stage results suggest it may not be a thriller. Fluminense found the net four times in the group stage - all of them came in their sole 4-2 win over Ulsan HD. 26 teams generated more xG than them in the group stage. Botafogo is the only team to progress that created fewer expected goals than them.

Their hopes for this match will rest on Jhon Arias. The Colombian international leads Fluminense’s charts for goals, assists, chances created, shots per 90, and successful dribbles. 

Arias is a high-touch, all-action forward. Arias had 81 touches against Dortmund, 85 against Ulsan, and 59 against the Mamelodi Sundowns. He’s in the 98th percentile of forwards in the competition for touches. 

Inter’s left side will be key to this match. Flu will look to get the ball to Arias as early and often as possible. That makes his match-up with Alessandro Bastoni particularly interesting.

Chivu tried a few different approaches in his first three matches. However, it was back to the Inzaghi 3-5-2 on Matchday Three. Bastoni pushed on high up the pitch, often striding out of defense with or without the ball. If he does the same again here, Kristjan Asllani will have to be vigilant to provide defensive cover. 

Inter Milan Analysis and Form

The Italian side enters as the top seed after earning 1st place in Group E on the final matchday. It’s hardly been a scintillating start to life under Cristian Chivu, but the Nerazzurri have ground out results. 

It’s been an interesting first few matches under Cristian Chivu. The former Romania defender took over from Simone Inzaghi earlier this month. He’s taken an experimental approach in his first few matches. He has tried different players in various setups, achieving different levels of success. 

They’ve so far done well to progress the ball. Only Bayern had more touches in the opposition box in the group stage, although over half of those came in that 10-0 win over Auckland. Lautaro Martinez has benefited from this. He’s amongst the tournament leaders for touches and touches in the opposition box. Martinez will be key here.

Fluminense Analysis and Form

Fluminense secured 2nd spot in Group F with that 0-0 draw with Mamelodi Sundowns on Matchday Three. They’ll be a little disappointed with that. A victory over the South African side would have earned the top spot and an easier path to the knockouts. Dortmund faces a more favorable tie with Monterrey. 

They’ll need to improve their offensive record. Of the sides that have qualified for the knockout phase, only Botafogo has generated fewer expected goals than Flu. 

It’s a recurring theme for Fluminense. Back in the Brasileiro, they’re sat 6th in the table with a game in hand over some of the sides above them. However, the underlying data is a concern. Ten teams have accumulated a higher xG than them. That will need to change if they want to progress further in this tournament. 

Head-to-Head 

Inter Milan has never faced a Brazilian team before. Still, they hold a strong record against South American opposition, with four wins, one draw, and just one defeat, all against Argentinian sides. 

The Nerazzurri have played five games in the Club World Cup and are yet to lose one. 

Fluminense hasn’t won a match against European teams, having been defeated 4-0 by Manchester City in the 2023 final and drawn 0-0 against Borussia Dortmund on Matchday One. 

The Brazilians’ record in the competition remains good, with two victories (against Al-Ahly and Ulsan HD), two draws, and a sole defeat. 

In the history of Inter Milan, 43 Brazilian players have played at the club, second only to Argentines (50), but none of those were bought from Fluminense. 

Fluminense’s manager Renato Gaucho played one season in Serie A, in 1988/89, for AS Roma, and lost both games he played against Inter (2-0 and 3-0) that season. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Inter Milan's possible starting lineup:

Sommer; Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Asllani, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; F. P. Esposito, Lautaro Martinez.

Fluminense's possible starting lineup:

Fabio; Xavier, Thiago Silva, Freytes, Fuentes; Martinelli, Hercules, Nonato; Arias, Canobbio; Cano.

Cristian Chivu is expected to retain the starting lineup that secured a 2-0 victory over River Plate. Denzel Dumfries, now fully fit, will continue to feature on the right flank, while Francesco Pio Esposito, fresh off his first goal for Inter, will partner with Lautaro Martinez up front.

Inter Milan will be missing Benjamin Pavard, Yann Aurel Bisseck, Hakan Çalhanoğlu, and Piotr Zielinski, all of whom have returned to Milan due to injuries. Marcus Thuram is also doubtful for the match.

For Renato Gaucho, Thiago Silva is likely to return to the center of the defense, replacing Da Silva Oliveira. 

The midfield trio will comprise Martinelli, Hercules, and Nonato, with Colombian international Jhon Arias and Canobbio supporting Cano in the attack. Serna, Ganso, and Everaldo are expected to make appearances in the second half.

Odds/Betting Discussion

Dropping every trophy this season resulted in Inter not even being in the top five contenders at the Club World Cup. However, on an individual level, the Nerazzurri are easily favored in the majority of games. 

The surprisingly high odds have dropped from the original price, which opened around evens. Likely, the odds shortened after Inter’s 2-0 win against the group’s second favorite, River Plate.

Cristian Chivu’s side was priced at over evens against the Argentine champions but secured a routine win. At the same time, Fluminense’s identically priced clash against Mamelodi ended in a draw. This apparent difference in form resulted in the odds shifting in favor of the Italians.

Similarly, the Both Teams To Score market was also impacted by the recent results. 

The original predictions were more in favor of both teams scoring, but now the BTTS-Yes market has about a 51.3% chance of winning. It was initially about 7.5% less likely.

River Plate is not a high-scoring team. Their average of 1.39 goals scored in 18 domestic league games is not praiseworthy. In this competition, they accumulated a total of 3.2 expected goals (xG). Nonetheless, Inter keeping them on just two shots on target on Matchday Three makes the BTTS - No a more likely option.

The goal line is set at 2.5. However, the under market is priced at lower odds, with an implied probability of 58.1% (-140 ML).

BEST BET: Under 2.5 Goals (-150)

Check out the latest Club World Cup betting promos and Club World Cup odds to get in on all of the soccer action!

Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain