Inter Milan vs Urawa Red Diamonds Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Inter Milan will face Urawa Red Diamonds on Saturday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Match Group Stage action from Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

After the first round of matches, we are reminded once again that the Club World Cup often delivers unexpected outcomes. What appears to be a mismatch for Inter could turn out to be another surprise.

The Nerazzurri arrive in Seattle under pressure, still recovering from a turbulent end to their season and eager to make a statement after stumbling in their opening match. Can Chivu get the team to perform cohesively, or will Urawa, known for defying the odds, capitalize on any remaining vulnerabilities? Inter Milan is a big favorite coming in as -550 favorites.

The latest Inter Milan vs Urawa Red Diamonds odds say there is no room for an upset.

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Analysis of the Match

Inter Milan faces a must-win scenario against Urawa Red Diamonds following their underwhelming 1-1 draw against Monterrey in their opening match. 

The implied probability of the Italians winning is around 85.5%. It was around 64.1% for their first game, but it ended in a draw. 
For the Red Diamonds, the numbers are very slim, giving them about a 6.7% chance of winning. Nonetheless, after seeing the Nerazzuri falter in the first round, the Japanese won’t give in easily.

Despite squandering several promising opportunities and appearing disjointed and fatigued in the second half, the Champions League runners-up remain favorites to top Group E. But, to secure that top spot, Cristian Chivu's side will need to defeat Urawa by a significant margin.

The task will not be straightforward for the Italians, who have arrived in the United States after a grueling season, with a new manager at the helm and several young players to integrate. 

In the first half against Monterrey, Inter displayed an inclination to press high and responded well after conceding from a set-piece, equalizing through Lautaro Martínez. However, the second half saw Chivu adjusting the tactical setup, deploying Henrikh Mkhitaryan as a 'number 10' behind the forwards, which left Inter vulnerable at the back.

Facing a more modest opponent, as Urawa has won just two of their last eight matches while conceding seven goals, Inter will aim to control the game's tempo more effectively and be more clinical in front of goal.

Urawa, typically lining up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, demonstrated resilience in the second half against River Plate. However, they were ultimately undone by defensive lapses, conceding three headed goals that appeared preventable.

Inter Milan Analysis and Form

Inter Milan is in a transitional phase under new manager Cristian Chivu. The Romanian's tactical adjustments marked a change from the previous "Inzaghi-esque" 3-5-2 formation, introducing zonal marking at set pieces—a move that backfired when Sergio Ramos scored for Monterrey. 

Seeking more attacking threat, Chivu switched to a 3-4-2-1 formation in the second half, placing Lautaro Martínez and Henrikh Mkhitaryan behind Marcus Thuram. 

Though promising signs emerged, Inter still faces challenges with just two clean sheets since March and a struggle to convert chances, as Inter collected 2.7 xG in their debut in Pasadena.

Saturday's match against Urawa Reds presents an opportunity for Chivu's side to gain confidence and momentum. 

Inter aims to refine its identity and dominate the game against the weakest team in Group E, with more tactical innovations on the horizon.

Urawa Red Diamonds Analysis and Form

Urawa Red Diamonds secured their place in the Club World Cup by winning the AFC Champions League in 2022, but their form has fluctuated since. 

The team finished a disappointing 13th in the J League last season and, after a successful run of five straight league victories between April and May 2025, have only won two of their previous eight matches, conceding in seven of them. 

Our projections indicate that Urawa is unlikely to advance past the group stage, with Inter and River Plate as Group E favorites.

Their match against River Plate highlighted this inexperience, as Urawa conceded three headed goals, including one from a defensive error by center-back Marius Hoibraten. 

While Urawa showed improvement after falling two goals behind, hopes of a comeback swiftly faded after Matuso scored the penalty that set the score 2-1 in River’s favor.

As a tenacious yet technically limited team, Urawa is projected to score just 0.46 goals on Saturday, requiring a standout defensive effort to avoid an early exit from the tournament. 

Head-to-Head Analysis

This match will be a historic first meeting between Inter Milan and Urawa Red Diamonds. While they have no shared history, Urawa has some experience facing Italian opposition at this stage. However, Inter has never faced a side from Japan before.

Urawa had the opportunity to face Milan at the 2007 Club World Cup. The match saw the Japanese side frustrate the Rossoneri for long spells before conceding late. A reminder that Urawa can be a stubborn opponent.

Inter, on the other hand, has only had opponents from Korea. Their not-so-memorable 3-1 win over Seongnam Ilhwa Chunma in the 2010 edition of this tournament took them into the finals and, ultimately, to a title.

So far in this competition, Inter hasn’t displayed the mentality we know they have. The change in management and a disappointing end to the season left them uninspired. 

However, the stats were great in the first game despite a troublesome result in the end. Inter dominated the first half statistically but dropped off significantly in the second. 

At the same time, Urawa Reds were very competitive based on xG against River Plate. Unfortunately, their second-half pressure and quality play only yielded a single score.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Inter Milan's possible starting lineup:

Sommer; Pavard, Bastoni, Acerbi; Darmian, Barella, Asllani, Mkhitaryan, Carlos Augusto; Martinez, Thuram.

Urawa Red Diamonds possible starting lineup:

Nishikawa; Ishihara, Hoibraten, Boza, Ogiwar; Yasui, Gustafson, Watanabe; Kaneko, Matsuo, Savio.

Milan’s first game left fans and punters disappointed, as the Nerazzurri failed to secure three points despite an xG of 2.03, a difference of 0.91 compared to their opponent.

Lautaro Martinez, the only goalscorer, stood out with an xG of 0.71 in his two shots on goal. Lautaro surpassed his average of 0.54 xG per 90 he had in Serie A. His movement and finishing instincts remain Inter’s biggest attacking threat. 

He was accompanied by Sebastiano Esposito, a starter in MD1, whose 0.64 xG only contributed statistically. Nicolo Barella took three shots, the same as Esposito, but only generated an xG of 0.19.

Marcus Thuram worked tirelessly but lacked sharpness in front of goal, while Henrikh Mkhitaryan showed glimpses of creativity in a more advanced role after Chivu’s tactical reshuffle.

For Urawa Red Diamonds, Yasuke Matuso was the standout in attack, generating 0.81 xG thanks mainly to his composure from the penalty spot against River Plate. Open play opportunities were rare, with Urawa mustering just 0.35 xG, not including the penalty. 

In other words, the team’s total of 1.12 xG came mainly from the penalty. The Japanese side will need far more creativity and precision in open play if they are to trouble an Inter defense eager to make amends.

BEST BET: Inter Milan to Win NIL (-120)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain