Manchester City vs. Al Hilal Predictions, Odds and Pick

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Manchester City will face Al Hilal on Monday at 9:00 p.m. ET in the Club World Cup Round of 16 at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going. In their final group stage match, they delivered one of their best performances of the season, achieving a commanding 5-2 victory over Juventus. The return of Ballon d'Or winner Rodri to the starting lineup—his first appearance since September 2024—energized the Citizens, who are now favorites among bookmakers to win the Club World Cup title.

Al Hilal finished the group stage undefeated, securing a comfortable win over CF Pachuca in Matchday 3, which allowed them to claim second place behind Real Madrid. With only one goal conceded and a strong performance against Los Blancos, the Saudi team has demonstrated its ability to compete with European clubs. However, despite their recent 1-1 draw with Real Madrid, this Round of 16 matchup may not be evenly matched.

In fact, Manchester City is heavily favored, with bookmakers indicating an 80% likelihood of victory (-400 on the moneyline) for Pep Guardiola’s squad in the 1X2 market.

Looking to get in on the action? Be sure to check out our bet365 bonus code!

(Featured Image Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images)

Updated on 6/30/25

bet365

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets Win or Lose!

Bonus Code

VIBONUS

Claim $150

New customers only, 21+ (18+ in KY). Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Available in AZ, CO, NJ, IA, IL, KY, IN, LA, NC, VA, PA, TN, OH only. Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bonus Bets at bet365. Registration required. A deposit (minimum $10) is required to participate in this offer. You must claim the offer via the bet365 app, within 30 days of registering your account. Once released, your Bonus Bets will be held in your account balance and are non-withdrawable.T&Cs, time limits and exclusions apply.

Analysis of the Match

The Club World Cup's Round of 16 pits together the European elite, Manchester City, against newcomers and ambitious Al Hilal in Orlando on Monday. 

City stamped their authority in Group G, concluding with a commanding 5-2 win over Juventus, a performance capped by Erling Haaland's 300th career goal. 

The City's flawless group stage was marked by standout contributions from returnee Rodri, who controlled the midfield on Matchday Three and showcased the squad's depth with impactful performances from new additions, such as Ryan Cherki and Ait-Nouri.

Pep Guardiola's City, eager to reclaim its reputation after a trophyless last season, now aims to build momentum in this tournament and beyond. 

On the other hand, Al Hilal, under new boss Simone Inzaghi, is riding an eight-game unbeaten run. 

Despite controlling their match against CF Pachuca, they allowed the Mexicans a couple of scoring chances but clinched victory through Leonardo's late goal, signaling Inzaghi's winning start. 

The match presents an opportunity for Al Hilal to demonstrate their growth under Inzaghi and challenge the European heavyweights, adding an intriguing layer of redemption for the Italian manager, who lost the 2023 Champions League final to City. 

While City are firm favorites, having dominated statistically during the group phase, Al Hilal's ambitious playstyle under Inzaghi makes for an engaging matchup.

Manchester City Analysis and Form

Manchester City is the only team in the competition to maintain a perfect record. They have won their last five games in all competitions, and since April, they have turned the corner, registering 10 victories over 12 games. 

However, the 5-2 success over Juventus, the highest-scoring game between fellow European sides, was the best City has played in for a very long time. 

City controlled possession with remarkable statistics: 76% possession and outshooting opponents by a wide margin, reinforcing the idea they’re the main favorite to win the competition. 

The Citizens don’t seem to have missed Kevin De Bruyne's absence, as the introduction of players like Ait-Nouri and Reijnders has added dynamism. At the same time, Phil Foden has also rediscovered his goalscoring ability. 

Guardiola views this tournament as the start of a new era for the team, with a focus on reclaiming their position at the top of European football.

Al Hilal Analysis and Form

As they prepare to face Manchester City, Al Hilal is aiming for a statement-making performance. 

Although Simone Inzaghi has been in charge for less than two weeks, he’s already implemented some of his football principles. Aggressive wing play and a strong partnership between João Cancelo and Malcom on the right have been some of Al Hilal's trademarks in this competition. 

Kalidou Koulibaly's leadership in defense was instrumental in their recent win, containing Pachuca's attack while Leonardo clinched the game late.

Al Hilal's ambitions to challenge elite teams are clear under Inzaghi's tactics, supported by talented midfielders like Ruben Neves and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who orchestrate play and can create scoring opportunities. 

Despite minor defensive lapses, their control of possession (51.2% on average) highlights a confident and evolving side. 

Head-to-Head Analysis 

Manchester City and Al Hilal had the opportunity to meet back in 2012. In a friendly match, Al-Za'eem managed to surprise the English side with a 1-0 victory against heavy City-oriented odds. 

Man City didn’t play a single competitive game against a Saudi club. On the other hand, the Blue Waves clashed against Chelsea in the 2021 Club World Cup semifinals.

Chelsea eventually went on to win the tournament, but not without the Saudis giving them a good scare. Statistically, the two teams were balanced in most aspects, and a single goal from Romelu Lukaku was just enough to edge past the Blue Waves.

Overall, Al Hilal has yet to win a competitive game against a European team. They managed to get away with a few draws.

With Simone Inzaghi at the helm, Al Hilal now has a decent amount of experience to lead them. However, statistics show that in his managerial career, Inzaghi failed to beat City across their two games, losing one and drawing the other.

Despite his vast experience, Inzaghi has only played five times in total against English sides. He claimed two wins, one against Arsenal and one against Liverpool. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Manchester City's possible starting lineup:

Ederson; Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, Ait Nouri; Savinho, Silva, González, Foden, Doku; Haaland.

Al Hilal's possible starting lineup:

Bounou; Cancelo, Al Tambakti, Koulibaly, Lodi; Neves, Al Dawsari; Malcolm, Milinkovic-Savid, Al-Dawsari; Leonardo.

It’s always tricky to pick a starting lineup for Manchester City. It’s become even more difficult at this Club World Cup, given the level of rotation Pep Guardiola has employed. 

Pep has a deep squad and made full use of it. We’ve seen multiple changes from game to game as Guardiola switched almost every position from game to game. 

It will be interesting to see how much the Catalan manager changes this time around. Juventus was their trickiest group match by some distance, and they now face a decent Al Hilal team.

However, Pep may have one eye on the quarter-finals, where either Inter Milan or Fluminense awaits, for what would likely be a trickier matchup. 

Phil Foden hasn’t started since Matchday Two and could come in here. Haaland is likely to reclaim his place up front. 

Don’t expect too much to change for Al Hilal. One player to keep an eye on is João Cancelo. The full-back was forced out of Manchester City after three and a half successful seasons. There were reports of a fight with Guardiola while at City. He’ll want to impress against his former side. 

Manager Simone Inzaghi has named the same starting lineup for three consecutive games, so expect him to make that four from four.

Odds Discussion

The Citizens enter this match as heavy favorites in the 1X2 market. The slight movement in their price since opening suggests continued confidence in Pep’s side.

City is given an implied probability of around 77% to win here, aligning closely with our prediction model, BETSiE, which gives it a 78.10% chance.

On the other hand, Al Hilal's odds have shortened significantly from the original 13.00 (+1200) opener. Despite some optimism around Simeone Inzaghi’s ability to set up a competitive game, the market remains firmly in favor of the English side.

The goal line is set at 2.5, with a strong bias towards the Over, implying a probability of 65.4% (-190 odds). A more balanced and telling line sits at 3.0, where both sides of the market are priced equally.

BETSiE also expects goals, with a predicted total of 3.8 goals for this fixture. In this scenario, the Premier League outfit should score at least 2.86.

The Both Teams To Score - No is slightly more favored than its counterpart. Given that City has kept clean sheets in their first two matches against similarly priced opponents, this market is also justified.

Finally, the Asian handicap line is set at -1.5 for City. However, based on their 5-2 win over Juventus and impressive wins of 6-0 and 2-0 against Al-Ain and Wydad, respectively, this line should be easily covered.

Going a bit further and looking at the -1.75 or even the -2.0 Asian handicap, it's easy to find value. Guardiola’s team has the quality to keep this clean while also boosting morale with a couple of goals in the opponent’s net.

BEST BET: Manchester City -1.5 Asian Handicap (-105)

Check out the latest Club World Cup betting promos and Club World Cup odds to get in on all of the soccer action!

Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain