Real Madrid vs CF Pachuca Predictions, Odds and Best Bet

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

Real Madrid will face CF Pachuca on Sunday at 3:00 PM EDT in Club World Cup Matchup number two from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Real Madrid's debut underscored the challenges that lie ahead for Xabi Alonso. The team managed only a draw against a determined Al Hilal, with Gonzalo, Alonso's chosen replacement for the ill Mbappé, scoring the opening goal. However, Madrid squandered several chances and missed a stoppage-time penalty taken by Valverde.

Although they showed clear intent with their organized play, transitioning from Ancelotti's style will take time. This Sunday, Madrid will face CF Pachuca, the weakest team in Group H, providing Alonso with an opportunity to experiment and get back to winning ways.

Bookmakers are optimistic, giving Real Madrid an 80% chance of victory (-400 on the moneyline), which would eliminate their counterparts after just 180 minutes of football.

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Analysis of the Match

Real Madrid was frustrated in their opener, managing just a 1-1 draw against Al Hilal despite creating the third-highest xG (2.6) of the matchday. Los Blancos have won just two of their last 21 competitive fixtures by two or more goals, something Xabi Alonso will be eager to address.

The Spaniards will see this as the perfect opportunity to deliver a statement win in the group. Against a side they comfortably beat 3-0 in last year’s Club World Cup final, there should be no issues.

The Madrid attack, without Mbappé, will look to exploit a Pachuca defense that has conceded 16 goals in their last eight away matches.

Gonzalo Garcia’s emergence gives them another threat, as he was the sole goal-scorer in the first round. He achieved a 1.2 xG in four shots on target. Combining with Trent Alexander-Arnold getting creative down the flank, Alonso will expect sharper finishing after missing their seventh penalty of the season on MD1.

Pachuca will likely aim for damage limitation, focusing on their compact shape while hoping to hit on the break. Against RB Salzburg, they showed signs of life with 1.4 xG and a first goal since early May, but creating clear-cut chances against Madrid’s backline will be far more challenging.

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

Real Madrid looked labored in the opening game. The dynamic, direct, frightening Los Blancos outfit we typically expect didn't show itself, much like in the latter stages of the Champions League this season. They were slow in possession. They were slow out of possession. Al Hilal was the brighter side in the first half, but in fairness, Real Madrid did improve in the second half. The Spaniards registered 1.73xG in a 45-minute showing, which ended goalless.

Man of the moment, Gonzalo Garcia, spoke to reporters after the game, indicating why Los Blancos might not have been at their best; "Not to make excuses, but it was very hot, the match was at an hour that we are not used to playing at. That also applies to our opponents, so it's no excuse. It would have been better to play at a different time."

The weather and time of day will have a real impact, especially on the European teams. These players are not used to these conditions in their domestic settings. It's certainly something to bear in mind from a punter's perspective. Regardless, Xabi Alonso will be aiming to right any wrongs of MD1 here against a Pachuca side, which should, on paper, prove to be much easier opposition.

Expect much more play in the opponent's half and more clear-cut opportunities presented to Real Madrid on MD2. We should see Trent Alexander-Arnold, if he starts the game, much more involved in terms of chance creation.

CF Pachuca Analysis and Form

The Tuzos entered this competition in shifting and inconsistent form. Unfortunately for them, they were unlucky in the draw and have thus opened the competition with a loss against Salzburg.

MD1 was supposed to be their big opportunity to earn points, and they showed up with 1.40 xG against Salzburg’s 0.91 xG. Despite their efforts, the result evaded them, leaving them in an awkward situation as they ready to face Real Madrid. Their offense requires a stronger finish, 

The lack of quality in attack shows in their season’s overall stats. Namely, the Tuzos only scored an average of 1.38 goals per game in 37 games. However, their xG stood slightly higher at 1.59 xG per game. Despite only a slight difference, it highlights the issues they encounter in the final third.

The Mexicans averaged 12.92 shots per game this season but converted only 11% of all shots. They failed to score in 30% of all their domestic games.

Against a side like Madrid, Pachuca will need to stay compact and organized while hoping to exploit rare chances on the counter. Their resilience is evident, but their structural weaknesses and inconsistent finishing make this a daunting task.

Head-to-Head Analysis

Interestingly, Real Madrid of Spain and Pachuca of Mexico have already played each other this season. In a showpiece event hosted in Lusail, Qatar, Los Blancos romped to a 3-0 victory. Kylian Mbappé, Rodrigo, and Vinicius Junior, in that order, found their way onto the scoresheet.

The FIFA Intercontinental Cup was hosted for the first time in 2024, featuring the champions of the six FIFA confederations. Pachuca beat Botafogo and Al Ahly to reach the final. Real Madrid, the UEFA representative in the mini-knockout tournament, received an automatic bye to the final.

Although the Spaniards ran away with the game in terms of the scoreline and possession figures (65%-35%), Pachuca displayed desire. The Mexicans matched Real Madrid’s shot total (12-12) and forced one fewer corner (6-5) than the eventual winners. 

However, it should be noted that they failed to record a single ‘big chance’ in the game against Real Madrid’s four. 

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid's possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Huijsen, Asencio, Garcia; Tchouaménii, Valverde; Bellingham; Rodrygo, Garcia, Vinicius Junior.

CF Pachuca's possible starting lineup:

Moreno; Rodriguez, Bauermann, Pereira, Gonzalez; Montiel, Pedraza, Palavecino, Dominguez; Kenedy, Rondon.

Real Madrid is hopeful to welcome back key defenders like Antonio Rudiger, Dani Carvajal, and Eder Militao ahead of the match in Charlotte. All three have returned to full training, but it's up to Xabi to decide when and how much to use them.

Kylian Mbappé remains a major doubt after being hospitalized with gastroenteritis. Although he is discharged and back at camp, his availability will be assessed close to kick-off.

Even with some significant absences, Los Blancos shouldn’t have a problem keeping things tight against Pachuca. Gonzalo Garcia from Real’s reserve team took the opportunity to show his quality. 

He stood out in the first game with 1.3 xG, four shots on target, and the opening goal. He missed two big chances but will likely look to do better next time.

On Pachuca’s side, there are no concerning injuries or suspensions after the first round. The team will continue to rely on Venezuelan José Salomon Rondon, the key figure in the attack. 

He totaled an xG of 0.8 after one game and will be the biggest threat in the upcoming match. Despite a few missed chances in the opener, it's clear that he has potential and has to do better.

BEST BET: Real Madrid -2.0 Asian Handicap (-105)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain