Real Madrid vs. Juventus Predictions, Odds and Pick

Derek Mountain Sports Betting Expert

13 minute read

Real Madrid will face Juventus on Tuesday at 3:00 p.m. ET in the Club World Cup Round of 16 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, Florida.

Two giants of European football are set to clash in an exciting knockout match at the Club World Cup, where the kings of Europe will face the Bianconeri in Miami. This showdown will determine which team will advance in the tournament and which team will be eliminated.

The winner will advance to face either Borussia Dortmund or Monterrey and is likely to be favored to reach the semifinals.

Juventus might have recently faced a reality check with their 5-2 loss against Manchester City, leading them to be viewed as underdogs in this matchup. However, La Vecchia Signora has a history of performing well under pressure and boasts a favorable recent record against their Spanish rivals.

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Updated on 7/1/25

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Analysis of the Match

It's the pick of the bunch in the round of 16 as Real Madrid face Juventus. It's the first competitive meeting between these two clubs since the 2017-18 Champions League quarter-finals. There is plenty of intrigue for this match, with a fixture against either Borussia Dortmund or Monterrey waiting in the quarter-finals.

A lot has changed for these two great clubs since that 2018 quarter-final. That was the last of a run of seven Champions League fixtures between the two clubs in the space of six seasons. Juve won a couple of those matches and made it to two finals but couldn't get their hands on the trophy. 

They've been rebuilding ever since and have changed managers six times. Madrid is about to start its rebuild under Xabi Alonso after that long period of success.

This is the first big test for Alonso's Madrid. The results so far have been promising. Dig a little deeper, and there are some troubling signs. Madrid has conceded an average of 16.7 shots per game at this Club World Cup. Only four teams have conceded more. Los Blancos have generated chances fairly well, averaging 1.84 xG per game. The problem is that they've conceded 1.57 xGA per match on average.

Juventus' underlying stats aren't much better, but we must take their fixtures into account. The Bianconeri were dominated by Manchester City, allowing the English side 3.92 xG and 24 shots. That shows where Igor Tudor's side is in comparison to Europe's elite. We'll learn where Real Madrid is during this match. 

Real Madrid Analysis and Form

The 15-time Champions League winners arrived at the Club World Cup with high expectations but also a testing ground for the new manager, Xabi Alonso. 

A slow start and a draw against Al-Hilal were followed by two statement wins against Pachuca and Salzburg. But Los Blancos haven't been tested yet.

A closer look at the stats shows some issues. You won't find the Madrid side at the top of any relevant stats, as they are 10th in expected goals, eighth in possession, and 11th in touches in the opposition box. 

Despite an average performance, Real is still the third favorite to win this competition.

Even in their heavily favored clash against RB Salzburg, the team saw some potential problems. The Austrians managed 12 shots, and their two big chances created 1.04 expected goals (xG). Despite what the result might imply, the stats show a different story.

In the same game, Los Blancos generated 1.84 expected goals in their 12 shots. With a lot of individual quality, it's no wonder that they are more focused on creating chances, generating 1.63 of their entire xG from open play. 

However, things are looking shaky in the back, as Die Roten Bullen forced Courtois into making three saves. This could be a result of switching to a back three and moving away from the traditional 4-3-3 formation.

Despite the statistics, Real kept a clean sheet, and we can expect a similar approach in the future. Xabi will require flexibility and intelligence in transition, and players like Jude Bellingham should thrive in the deeper midfield role with support from wing-backs like Alexander-Arlond and Fran Garcia providing support on both ends.

Juventus Analysis and Form

Two victories for the Old Lady and a humbling 5-2 loss against City put Juventus far from being a favored team to go all the way. 

Currently, the Italians are in ninth place according to the odds, making them the heavy underdogs going forward.

A disappointing season for the Bianconeri led to the appointment of Igor Tudor with nine Serie A games to go. The Croat manager suffered only two losses, against Parma in the domestic league and now against City.

Offensively, Juventus has found breakthroughs thanks to its star players, such as Kenan Yildiz, Chico Conceiçao, and Randal Kolo Muani. 

With back-ups in store like Dusan Vlahovic and Teun Koopmeiners, on paper, they have the depth to compete against the best. It's just a matter of finding the adequate recipe.

Nevertheless, vulnerabilities persist in the back. The Bianconeri have conceded 2.0 goals per game so far, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 5.6 (ninth place). 

Moreover, they are second in saves per match, only behind Auckland City, speaking volumes about the defensive holes they leave for goalkeeper Michele Di Gregorio to cover.

If Juventus can find a solution for their defensive struggles, with such a prominent attack, they can be very dangerous. Until then, teams like City and Real will have no issues capitalizing on the many chances they're bound to create. 

Head-to-Head

Juventus is the Italian club that Real Madrid has faced most frequently in their history. 

The two sides have met 21 times, with Los Blancos coming out on top in 12 encounters, alongside two draws and eight defeats.

Since the 2014/15 season, the balance has been more evenly matched, with each team securing two wins and two draws. 

Real Madrid has eliminated Juventus from the Champions League in their most recent two ties. However, their last meeting on 11 April 2018 resulted in a 3-1 victory for Juventus at the Santiago Bernabéu. They almost pushed the game into extra time after a first-leg loss in Turin if not for a controversial penalty by Cristiano Ronaldo in the 90th minute.

Notably, Madrid triumphed over Juventus in two Champions League finals. In 1998, a goal from Darko Mijatović secured victory in Amsterdam. In 2017, Real Madrid won 4-1 in Cardiff with a brace from Ronaldo, plus goals from Casemiro and Asensio, while Mandzukic netted for Juventus. 

Six of their last seven encounters have seen more than two goals, with both teams scoring in the same number of matches.

Team News and Predicted Lineups

Real Madrid's possible starting lineup:

Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Fran Garcia; Tchouaméni; Arda Güler, Bellingham; Valverde, Gonzalo Garcia, Vinicius Jr.

Juventus possible starting lineup:

Di Gregorio; Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly; Alberto Costa, McKennie, Thuram, Cambiaso; Conceiçao, Kolo Muani, Yildiz.

Kylian Mbappé has returned to team training but might start on the bench. 

Alonso could revert to a 4-1-2-3 formation after playing with three at the back against RB Salzburg. 

Courtois will be in goal behind a backline of Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, and Fran Garcia. Tchouaméni will provide the link between defense and midfield, with Arda Güler and Bellingham setting up Valverde, Gonzalo Garcia, and Vinicius Junior.

Tudor will have to cope without Savona, a regular starter until now, with Gatti likely stepping in. 

Khéphren Thuram makes his return in midfield, while the attack will once again be led by Randal Kolo Muani, supported by Kenan Yildiz's creativity and Francisco Conceição'sConceiçao's flair. If Conceiçao isn't fully fit, Koopmeiners is ready to step in. 

Costa and Cambiaso will cover the flanks, with Locatelli anchoring the midfield.

Bookmakers currently give Real Madrid a 60% chance of winning (-160 on the moneyline) within 90 minutes in the Real Madrid 1X2 market. While Alonso's team may be considered technically superior on paper, this match is expected to be highly competitive, challenging the odds that suggest a one-sided outcome.

BEST BET: Over 2.5 Goals (-122)

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Derek Mountain

Derek Mountain works in the Boston area as an SEO Performance Associate for Better Collective. Derek is a recent graduate of the College of the Holy Cross in Worcester, MA where he played football for five years as well as walking on the basketball team his freshman year. Derek has experience writing and editing casino content for nearly four years. More from Derek Mountain