Southampton vs Arsenal Predictions, Odds and Betting Picks
Arsenal have secured Champions League qualification for another year. The Premier League's second spot is not yet mathematically confirmed. However, Newcastle would need a Southampton victory and an eight-goal swing to muscle into the top two behind Liverpool.
For Southampton, any kind of jeopardy regarding the Premier League table is long gone. The Saints were relegated with seven matches still to play after a 3-1 defeat at Tottenham at the start of April. It has been 14 games since the group tasted victory, and 28 since Southampton beat a team outside of the relegated trio (2 November 2024).
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Updated on 5/27/25
Analysis of the Match
With Champions League qualification secured for a third successive season, Arsenal are already setting their sights on the upcoming campaign.
It is expected that the North London club will be active in the summer transfer market, focusing particularly on strengthening their attacking options to mount a sustained Premier League title challenge.
Despite finishing as runners-up for the third year in succession—a position achieved with at least 15 points fewer than the 2023/2024 season—Arsenal’s campaign has not been in vain. A semi-final appearance in the Champions League further highlights their progress. However, there's a sense that Mikel Arteta’s squad lacked the spark and cohesion needed in crucial moments, with injuries to key players contributing to an early exit from the title race.
One area of concern for Arsenal has been their lack of a clinical striker. The team has underperformed in relation to their expected goals (xG), falling short by 4.16, and no player has reached double figures in league goals this season. Kai Havertz, the club’s top scorer, returned from injury last weekend but hasn't found the net in the Premier League since 2 February against Manchester City.
Defensively, Arsenal boast the league’s strongest record, conceding just 33 goals. The visit to St Mary's presents an opportunity for goalkeeper David Raya to surpass Nottingham Forest’s Matz Seltz’s record of 13 clean sheets and win the Golden Glove award.
For the hosts, Southampton, avoiding the league’s worst-ever points tally already feels like a significant achievement. However, their expected goals against (xGA) figure of 95.94 is the highest since xG statistics began being recorded in the Premier League in 2014/15.
The Saints shut Manchester City out in their last home match, despite conceding 26 shots and failing to register a shot on target. Although Arsenal have little left to contest for, it seems unlikely that Simon Rusk’s side will replicate that positive result on Sunday.
Southampton Analysis and Form
Sunday’s 2-0 defeat at Everton all but confirmed that Southampton’s 2024/25 campaign will go down as the second-worst season in Premier League history. Even an unlikely victory over runners-up Arsenal would leave the Saints level on points with Sunderland’s 2005/06 campaign.
But anything other than a heavy defeat appears unlikely given Southampton’s home form. They’ve scored 12 times - the fewest in the league - and conceded 45 times - the most in the league - in their 18 matches at St Mary’s this campaign.
Results have somewhat improved under caretaker manager Simon Rusk. The 0-0 draw with Manchester City in their last home match is proof of that, although the underlying data of 0.11 xG - 2.40 xG paints a very different picture.
The Saints’ underlying data for the season makes for grim reading. They’ve conceded an average of 2.5 goals in their home matches and have spent 41% of those games trailing, well above the league average of 24%. They sit bottom of the xPTS table and top of the xGA table. The Saints will be glad to see the back of this campaign.
Arsenal Analysis and Form
It’s been a different kind of disappointing campaign for Arsenal. The season has seen second place all but wrapped up and a first Champions League semi-final appearance in over 15 years. There is plenty for Mikel Arteta to be proud of, but the Gunners wanted so much more.
The underlying data suggests this is the second-best team in the league. The Gunners are second for xPTS (expected points) and xGD (expected goals difference). It also shows the serious issue facing Arteta. Arsenal boasts the best defensive record in the league, but are sixth for xG and have scored 18 fewer goals than champions Liverpool.
The Gunners are very much limping over the line. Last Sunday’s 1-0 win over Newcastle was their first victory in four matches. It’s 13 straight away league matches without losing but the Gunners drew six of those. They’ve drawn the second-most matches in the league and have had many more separated by a single goal either way.
Therein lies the problem for Arsenal, especially since the turn of the year. Since January 1st, 78.9% (15/19) of Arsenal’s Premier League matches have been drawn or separated by a single goal. Mikel Arteta will hope that a match against one of the worst Premier League teams we’ve ever seen can remedy that.
Head to Head
Southampton can take some confidence from their record against Arsenal. The Gunners’ 3-1 victory over the Saints in the reverse fixture back in October was something of an outlier.
Southampton drew both matches with Arsenal in the 2022/23 season and beat them in this fixture the season prior. In all competitions, the hosts have won five and drawn five of their last 14 home matches against the Gunners, dating back 20 years.
It looked as if Arsenal’s bogey side might get one more result in the reverse fixture. The Saints took the lead at the Emirates in the 55th minute back in October. Perhaps as a sign of where this season went for Southampton, that lead lasted just three minutes as the Gunners hit back to win the match 3-1.
Team News and Predicted Lineups
Southampton Predicted Lineup: Ramsdale; Walker-Peters, Wood-Gordon, Stephens ; Bree, Downes, Aribo, Wellington; Dibling, Fernandes; Sulemana
Arsenal Predicted Lineup: Raya; White, Kiwior, Calafiori, Lewis-Skelly; Partey, Rice, Odegaard; Saka, Merino, Martinelli
Aaron Ramsdale will almost definitely start against his former employers on Sunday afternoon. In front of him, there are more doubts. Kyle Walker-Peters and Jan Bednarek both missed the trip to Everton last week with an illness and an injury, respectively.
Further forward, little change is expected from Simon Rusk. Expect Tyler Dibling and Mateus Fernandes to both start in what could well be their final appearances for the club.
It was a mixed bag for Mikel Arteta on the injury front last Sunday. Key man William Saliba limped off at half time before Kai Havertz returned to first-team action after a three-month absence. Ricardo Calafiori should fill in for the Frenchman while Ben White will continue at right back following news that Jurrien Timber will undergo ankle surgery.
Mikel Merino is expected to return to the team following the completion of his one-match ban after getting sent off against Liverpool earlier in the month.
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