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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Predictions, Picks, Odds

Daniel Dobish
Daniel Dobish Sports Betting Expert
7 minute read

The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) travel to meet the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) in an AFC wild-card game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday night. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on NBC.

SCORE PREDICTION

Kansas City 31, Pittsburgh 23

BEST BETS

Pittsburgh +13 (-110) at Bet365

Over 46 (-110) at DraftKings

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS PREDICTIONS

The Steelers snuck into the postseason, topping the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens in the final two regular-season games, while getting an assist from the Jacksonville Jaguars and Las Vegas Raiders. It worked out, and QB Ben Roethlisberger gets his career extended at least one more game, perhaps more with a major upset on the road.

The Chiefs just handled the Steelers by a 36-10 score as a 10.5-point favorite in Week 16 as the OVER (44.5) just came across the finish line. The good news for the Chiefs is that WR Tyreek Hill (heel) practiced all week, and he doesn't appear on the injury report. RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (shoulder) did not practice Thursday or Friday, and he has been declared out. To make matters worse for the home side, RB Darrel Williams (toe) was limited in practice all week and he is listed as questionable, so Derrick Gore might be the guy to lead the backfield. If so, it might mean the Chiefs could have a heavy aerial-based offensive attack.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ODDS

More Odds | Futures Odds

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING RESOURCES

  • Matchup: AFC North vs. AFC West
  • Date: Sunday, January 16, 2022
  • Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • Location: Kansas City, Missouri
  • TV-Time: NBC - 8:15 p.m. ET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 9-7-1
  • ATS: 8-9
  • O/U: 6-11
  • ATS - Away: 4-4

The Steelers covered in consecutive games for the first time this season in Weeks 17-18, but their last non-cover was in Kansas City in the 26-point loss in Week 16. Against playoff teams, Pittsburgh was just 2-5 SU/ATS in seven appearances against teams in the current playoff field. While Big Ben gets a big chance here for one final ride in the sunset.

Pittsburgh's last wild-card game appearance didn't go so hot, losing 48-37 at home against the Cleveland Browns on Jan. 10, 2021. Pittsburgh has lost and failed to cover three straight playoff games dating back to an 18-16 AFC Divisional playoff game on Jan. 15, 2017 against the Chiefs. But before you start digging for extra change in your car seat and couch cushions to throw on the Steelers money line, remember that game featured QB Alex Smith, not Patrick Mahomes.

The Steelers are 5-2 ATS in the past seven games against teams with a winning record, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five vs. AFC foes. Again, that lone non-cover is against the Chiefs. The OVER is 4-1 in the past five as a road underdog, while going 19-6-1 in the past 26 playoff games. However, the UNDER is 4-1 in the past five against AFC teams, while going 38-15-1 in the past 54 road outings.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING ANALYSIS

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 12-5
  • ATS: 8-9
  • O/U: 10-7
  • ATS - Home: 3-5

The Chiefs head into this one with victories in nine of the past 10 regular-season games, nearly securing the first-round bye and No. 1 seed after a slow start. But a 27-3 loss at Tennessee in Week 7 ended up costing them.

Kansas City ended up going 6-3 SU/5-4 ATS in nine games against teams in the playoffs. The Chiefs also hit the OVER in six of the nine games against postseason teams, including 4-1 in the past five.

The Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall, while going 4-0 ATS in the past four home games. They're also 4-0 ATS in the past four home favorites, while going 4-1 ATS in the past five against teams with a winning overall record.

For totals, the OVER has hit in five in a row as a favorite, while going 5-0 in the past five games overall. The OVER is also 7-1 in the past eight games in the month of January. However, the UNDER has hit in four of the past five wild-card games for Kansas City.


The UNDER is 38-15-1 in the past 54 road games for the Steelers. (AP)

INSIDE THE STATS - PITTSBURGH STEELERS

  • Record: 9-7-1
  • Division Standing: 4-2
  • Points Scored: 343
  • Points Allowed: 398
  • PS/G: 20.2
  • PA/G: 23.4

INSIDE THE STATS - KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

  • Record: 12-5
  • Division Standing: 5-1
  • Points Scored: 480
  • Points Allowed: 364
  • PS/G: 28.2
  • PA/G: 21.4

KEY PLAYERS TO WATCH

  • PIT: Najee Harris - RB (307 rushes, 1,200 yards, 7 TD)
  • PIT: Ben Roethlisberger - QB (390/605, 3,740 yards, 22 TD, 10 INT)
  • KNC: Tyreek Hill - WR (111 catches, 1,239 yards, 9 TD)
  • KNC: Patrick Mahomes - QB (436/658, 4,839 yards, 37 TD, 13 INT)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING CONCLUSION

The Steelers head to Kansas City hoping that this will be a much better showing. And it should be, although there is a lot of concern with RB Najee Harris (elbow) questionable for Sunday's game. Harris said after practice that he is feeling better, so he should be ready to go. In addition, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster practiced for a second straight day, as it appears he'll be activated ahead of Sunday's game after a shoulder injury has sidelined him since Week 5. He obviously didn't play in the Week 16 game in Kansas City, so Big Ben will have another huge weapon in the pass game alongside WRs Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and TE Pat Freiermuth. Expect the Steelers to have a much better offensive performance than their most recent visit to Arrowhead.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, will be without CEH, and Williams is a question mark, too. Kansas City could have an unbalanced offense against Pittsburgh, forcing them to pass more. While the Chiefs pass attack is outstanding, that's the best part about the Steelers D, allowing just 215.1 yards per game through the air to rank ninth.

This game will be much closer than the first meeting, but the win-loss result will be the same, as we bid adieu to Roethlisberger after a stellar career.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING TRENDS

  • Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in the past seven vs. winning teams.
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in the past five games vs. AFC teams.
  • Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in the past five wild-card games.
  • Pittsburgh is 1-4-2 ATS in the past seven road playoff games.
  • Kansas City is 6-2 ATS in the past eight games overall.
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the past five vs. winning teams.
  • Kansas City is 4-0 ATS in the past four home games.
  • Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in the past five home playoff games.
  • The UNDER is 38-15-1 in the past 54 road games.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the past five games overall for Kansas City.
  • The OVER is 5-0 in the past five as a favorite for Kansas City.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in Kansas City's past five wild-card games.

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Daniel Dobish

Daniel Dobish

Dan is a handicapper and sports betting expert for VegasInsider with years of experience writing for a number of top publications in the industry. More from Daniel Dobish
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