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UFC 249 Odds: Ferguson and Gaethje highlight May 9 card

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
8 minute read

UFC 249 event set and Betting Odds are up!

Dana White’s persistence to put on a UFC show during the coronavirus pandemic has been incredible and the president has delivered.

UFC 249 was scheduled to take place on Saturday April 18, 2020 at the Barclays Center from Brooklyn, New York and the event was postponed for the venue.

The promotion tried to produce off the show at an alternative location in California but that failed to deliver as well due to unspecified reasons.

As we head into May, White and the promotion are pushing forward with UFC 249 from Jacksonville with a stacked card that will feature two championship bouts.

Tony Ferguson will meet Justin Gaethje for the interim UFC Lightweight Championship in the main event but not before Henry Cejudo and Dominick Cruz square off for the UFC Bantamweight Championship.

The UFC 249 event will be closed to fans and the venue will only allow essential personnel to attend.
  • Event: UFC 249
  • Date: Saturday, May 9, 2020
  • Venue: VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena
  • Location: Jacksonville, Florida
  • Fights: 12
  • Championship Fights: 2
  • TV: UFC Fight Pass, ESPN+, ESPN, ESPN PPV
  • Time: 6:30 p.m. ET

UFC 249 Betting Odds and Analysis

UFC 249 Main Card Odds

Fights to start at 10:00 p.m. ET

Lightweight Championship
Tony Ferguson (-174) vs. Justin Gaethje (+148)

Ferguson (26-3-0) will not face Khabib Nurmagomedov, as the latter is back in Russia due to the COVID-19 pandemic and travel restrictions, etc. So in steps Gaethje (21-2-0), and he gets a little more time to train after the initial fight set for early April was pushed back. Ferguson has rolled up wins in 12 consecutive fights, and six of the past eight have come via stoppage. If Ferguson is to push the streak to a baker’s dozen he will need to watch for the big blow, as Gaethje’s calling card is his knockout power and constant motor. He has 18 knockouts across his 21 career victories. Gaethje fights rarely involve the judges.
Henry Cejudo opened as a healthy -225 favorite in his possible matchup against former champion Dominick Cruz. (AP)
Henry Cejudo opened as a healthy -245 favorite in his possible matchup against former champion Dominick Cruz. (AP)

Bantamweight Championship
Henry Cejudo (-245) vs. Dominick Cruz (+200)

Cruz (22-2-0) looks to shoot ‘The Messenger’, a.k.a known as Cejudo (15-2-0). The former U.S. Olympian vacated the flyweight title Dec. 2019, scooting over to the bantamweight division. It’s been three and a half years since we last saw Cruz, and he was on the losing end of a title bout against Cody Garbrandt at UFC 207. A series of injuries have kept Cruz sidelined since December 2016, so the big question here is how rusty will Cruz be? He gets a crack at the title in his return to the octagon, but many feel Cejudo should be able to polish him off in short order.

Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou (-300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+245)

Ngannou (14-3-0) and Rozenstruik (10-0-0) are a couple of big boys who will be involved in an upright brawl in Match 3. Neither is particularly interested in going to the mat, as both have a 0.00 takedown average and accuracy percentage. Look for plenty of blows to be rained down upon each other. Rozenstruik actually holds a slight advantage in significant strikes landed per minute, as well as significant strike accuracy percentage, but he hasn’t faced a fighter nearly the caliber of Ngannou. ‘The Predator’ has won three straight fights after a pair of disappointing unanimous decision losses, including a title shot loss to Stipe Miocic at UFC 220 on Jan. 20, 2018.

Featherweight Bout
Calvin Kattar (-260) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+210)

Kattar (20-4-0) hasn’t experienced defeat very often in his career, and the books do not expect that to happen in this one, either. He was dumped by Zabit Magomedsharipov by unanimous decision in the main event at UFC Fight Night Nov. 9, 2019, and he should be champing at the bit to get back on track. Kattar has never lost in consecutive fights during his career, and each of his past three wins have come via KO/TKO. As such, Stephens will have to avoid the big knockout punch from ‘The Boston Finisher’. Kattar has a 5.12 to 3.09 advantage in significant strikes landed per minute.

Heavyweight Bout
Greg Hardy (-184) vs. Yorgan De Castro (+156)

The former Dallas Cowboy Hardy (5-2-0) is favored in the first bout on the pay-per-view card against De Castro (6-0-0), who has yet to taste defeat as a professional. The Cabo Verde native has a reach disadvantage of six and a half inches against the former NFL player, and Hardy stands five inches taller, too. Hardy, like Werdum, is looking to bounce back from a loss to Volkov, a unanimous decision setback Nov. 9, 2019. De Castro won his UFC debut Oct. 5, 2019 against Justin Tafa. However, this fight is a giant step up in difficulty, and Hardy should be able to handle his business.

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UFC 249 Prelims Odds

Fights to start at 8:00 p.m. ET

Welterweight Bout
Anthony Pettis (-138) vs. Donald Cerrone (+118)

Between the two fighters, Pettis (22-10-0) and Cowboy (36-14-0) have a lot of mileage on those tires. This bout should be a war, too, with the significant strike accuracy percentage nearly identical, with a slight edge to Cerrone in the takedown average department. These two met on Jan. 26, 2013, with Pettis winning by KO/TKO in Round 1 in UFC on FOX. Cowboy is looking to turn around a three-bout skid, although there is no shame having losses against the likes of Tony Ferguson (doctor’s stoppage), Justin Gaethje (KO/TKO) and Conor McGregor (KO/TKO).

Heavyweight Bout
Fabricio Werdum (-340) vs. Aleksei Oleinik (+270)

Werdum (23-8-1) is trying to wash the bad taste out of his mouth from a KO/TKO against Alexander Volkov last time out on St. Patrick’s Day 2018. He has had over two years to stew, spending 10 months on the sidelines due to a positive test for trenbolone and epitrenbolone metabolite, or a failed urine test. The combined age of these two fighters is 84 years, or 42 each. Oleinik (58-13-1) has knocked out in short order against Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris in consecutive 2019 bouts before bouncing back with a submission win over Maurice Green at UFC 246. If Oleinik is to be successful here he will need to get to the canvas early and often.

Women’s Strawweight
Carla Esparza (-152) vs. Michelle Waterson (+130)

Waterson, a.k.a. ‘The Karate Hottie’, is coming off a tough unanimous decision loss to Joanna Jedrzejcyzk last time out in mid-October. That halted a nice three-bout win streak, including impressive wins over the likes of Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Felice Herrig. While Waterson can hold her own on the canvas, that’s exactly where Esparza (16-6-0) will want to take things. She has a sparkling 3.53 takedown average, although Waterson (17-7-0) has the edge in takedown accuracy and submission average. It’s wrestling vs. Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and it will be interesting to see which style wins out.

Middleweight Bout
Ronaldo Souza (-128) vs. Uriah Hall (+108)

One of the more intriguing and evenly matched bouts might be Match 9, as Hall (16-9-0) and Jacare (26-8-0) brawl in a prelim bout. Both fighters land a lot of punches, with Hall holding a slight 50.66 to 46.87 significant strike accuracy percentage advantage. Jacare is favored because he is also much better in the ground and pound, holding big advantages in the takedown accuracy and submission average categories.

UFC 249 Early Prelims Odds

Fights to start at 6:30 p.m. ET

Welterweight Bout
Vicente Luque (-290) vs. Niko Price (+230)

Price (14-3-0) holds a slight reach and height advantage over Luque (17-7-1), but that’s where the advantages end. Luque has rolled up an impressive 5.18 significant strikes landed per minute with 53.69 significant strike accuracy percentage, and he is tremendous getting fighters to the mat, too, as is evidenced by his 50.0 takedown accuracy percentage. ‘The Silent Assassin’ Luque is 6-1-0 over his past seven bouts, with four KO/TKO wins, although he lost by unanimous decision last time out against Stephen Thompson at UFC 244.

Featherweight Bout
Bryce Mitchell (-180) vs. Charles Rosa (+152)

Mitchell (12-1-0) and Rosa (12-3-0) have a total of four career losses between them. The southpaw Mitchell, a.k.a. ‘Thug Nasty’, has won his two fights since his UFC debut, winning by unanimous decision and submission. Rosa is 3-3-0 since his UFC debut Oct. 4, 2014, alternating wins and losses. He is coming off a submission win over Manny Bermudez last time out, and that’s where he is most dangerous, particularly with the armbar.

Light Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Spann (-420) vs. Sam Alvey (+330)

Spann (17-5-0) is the overwhelming favorite over the veteran Alvey (33-13-0), main due to his tremendous ability on the canvas. He owns huge career percentage advantages in the takedown accuracy, takedown average and submission average departments. If Alvey is to have any chance, he’ll need to turn this into a brawl and stay upright.

Betting Odds provided by FanDuel
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