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Last Updated Aug 30, 2021, 9:54 AM

UFC 249 Betting Trends to Watch

UFC 249 will take place at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena from Jacksonville, Florida with a 12-fight card.

Listed below are the matchups, trends and wagers that bettors may lean toward or against based on those trends.

Odds provided by Fan Duel (IN, NJ, PA, WV & CO only)
Subject to Change - T&C's Apply, 21+

UFC 249 Main Event

Interim Lightweight Championship
Tony Ferguson vs. Justin Gaethje

Tony Ferguson (36-years-old)
UFC Record (15-1)

  • Last Fight - June 8, 2019 (UFC 238)
  • 5-0 in last five bouts, four wins as a favorite
  • Last two fights ended by corner or doctor stoppage, both after second round (10 minutes)
  • Four of last five fights have finished inside distance
  • Five of last 10 fights have ended via submission

Justin Gaethje (31-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2)

  • Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 16)
  • Started UFC 1-2, has won three straight fights since
  • All three wins came within the first round
  • Listed as underdog in four of six UFC fights
  • All six UFC bouts for Gaethje have finished inside distance and only two lasted more than two rounds
  • In 23 professional fights, Gaethje has never been submitted in his Mixed Martial Arts career and he only owns one submission victory
  • During the same span, Gaethje has had only two fights go the distance and he won both those fights via decision

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make 
Tony Ferguson by KO/TKO (+260)
Tony Ferguson by KO/TKO or Submission (-125)
Tony Ferguson by Submission (+260)
Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO or Submission (+165)
Justin Gaethje KO/TKO & Round 1 (+500)
How fight will End - KO/TKO (-160)
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (-138)

Bets to Avoid
Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450)
Justin Gaethje by Submission (+2600)

Bantamweight Championship
Henry Cejudo vs. Dominick Cruz

Henry Cejudo (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-1)

  • Last Fight - June 8, 2019 (UFC 238)
  • 5-0 past five fights, including two straight via KO/TKO
  • In 17 career fights, he has zero losses via submission
  • He has never won a fight by submission
  • His last loss in UFC came April 23, 2016 at UFC 197

Dominick Cruz (35-years-old)
UFC Record (5-1)

  • Last Fight - Dec. 30, 2016 (UFC 207)
  • 'The Dominator' last fought Dec. 30, 2016 due to injuries
  • His last UFC victory came June 4, 2016 vs. Urijah Faber
  • Seven of Cruz's past eight fights have been decisions (6-1)
  • Cruz hasn't won a professional fight via submission since Sept. 9, 2006
  • He is 4-1 in his past five UFC championship bouts

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Henry Cejudo wins by decision (+145)
Henry Cejudo wins by unanimous decision (+215)
Henry Cejudo by TKO/KO (+255)
Dominick Cruz wins by decision (+265)
Total Rounds - Over 4.5 (-200)

Bets to Avoid
Dominick Cruz wins inside distance (+800)
Dominick Cruz wins by submission (+1500)
Henry Cejudo by submission (+1370)

Heavyweight Bout
Francis Ngannou vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Francis Ngannou (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-2)

  • Last Fight - June 29, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 3)
  • 3-0 past three fights, with all three via Round 1 KO/TKO
  • In 11 career UFC fights, only one has ended via submission (1-0)
  • Each of his past six UFC wins, and eight of the past nine, are by KO/TKO
  • Ngannou's past six KO/TKO wins have been in Round 1
  • His only two UFC losses, and three career setbacks, are via unanimous decision

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (32-years-old)
UFC Record (4-0)

  • Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 7)
  • 4-0 in four career UFC fights, all via KO/TKO
  • Nine of his 10 professional bouts have been won by KO/TKO
  • Three of his four UFC fights have ended by 0:54 of Round 2
  • Rozenstruik recorded a KO/TKO in 0:09 of Round 1 vs. Allen Crowder on June 22, 2019

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (-115)
Francis Ngannou wins inside distance (-140)
Francis Ngannou wins by KO/TKO (-115)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins inside distance (+365)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins in Round 1 (+650)
Jairzinko Rozenstruik wins by KO/TKO (+385)

Bets to Avoid
Fight goes to decision (+250)
Francis Ngannou wins by decision (+430)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik wins by decision (+687)
Total Rounds - Over 1.5 (-105)

Featherweight Bout
Jeremy Stephens vs. Calvin Kattar

Jeremy Stephens (33-years-old)
UFC Record (15-14-1)

  • Last Fight - Oct. 18, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 6)
  • 0-3-1 past four bouts, including one no contest
  • In past 26 professionals bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
  • His past two UFC wins, and four of past seven, are by KO/TKO
  • 2-4-1 in past seven bouts as an underdog

Calvin Kattar (32-years-old)
UFC Record (4-2)

  • Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 21)
  • Past three UFC wins are via KO/TKO, including two straight in Round 1
  • Two career UFC losses are via unanimous decision
  • In past 16 professional bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
  • 2-0 in past two UFC bouts as a favorite

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Calvin Kattar wins inside distance (+225)
Calvin Kattar wins by KO/TKO (+280)
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+158)
Jeremy Stephens wins inside distance (+500)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Over 2.5 (-180)
Fight goes to decision (-155)

Heavyweight Bout
Greg Hardy vs. Yorgan De Castro

Greg Hardy (31-years-old)
UFC Record (2-2-1)

  • Last Fight - Nov. 9, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 21)
  • In eight professional bouts he has no wins or losses via submission
  • All five of his career victories have come by KO/TKO
  • He is 1-1-1 in three UFC bouts as the favorite

Yorgan De Castro (33-years-old)
UFC Record (1-0)

  • Last Fight - Oct. 5, 2019 (UFC 243)
  • Won his UFC debut Oct. 5, 2019 vs. Justin Tafa as a slight underdog
  • Five of his six wins as a professional are by KO/TKO
  • Four of his wins as a professional have come in Round 1

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+130)
Greg Hardy wins by KO/TKO (+160)
Greg Hardy wins inside distance (+158)
Yorgan De Castro wins by KO/TKO (+245)
Yorgan De Castro wins inside distance (+235)

Bets to Avoid
Greg Hardy wins by decision (+230)
Yorgan De Castro wins by decision (+900)
Fight goes to decision (+165)

UFC 249 Prelims

Welterweight Bout
Anthony Pettis vs. Donald Cerrone

Anthony Pettis (33-years-old)
UFC Record (9-9)

  • Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020  (UFC 246)
  • 1-3 across past four bouts, and 4-8 over past 12 fights
  • Has been knocked out in three of past eight outings
  • Beat Donald Cerrone in their first-ever meeting on Jan. 26, 2013, winning by KO/TKO (Round 1, 2:35)
  • Four of his previous six victories have come via submission

Donald Cerrone (37-years-old)
UFC Record (23-10)

  • Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020 (UFC 246)
  • 0-3 across past three fights (C. McGregor, J. Gaethje, T. Ferguson), losing all three by KO/TKO
  • Last win came May 4, 2019 vs. Al Iaquinta by unanimous decision
  • Has recorded just one win via KO/TKO across past 11 fights dating back to Dec. 10, 2016
  • Only three of his past 17 fights overall have went the distance

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Total Rounds - Over 2.5 (+106)
Fight goes to decision (+114)
Fight ends by decision (+105)

Bets to Avoid
Donald Cerrone by KO/TKO (+600)
Anthony Pettis by KO/TKO (+250)

Heavyweight Bout
Fabricio Werdum vs. Aleksei Oleinik

Fabricio Werdum (42-years-old)
UFC Record (11-5)

  • Last Fight - Mar. 17, 2018 (UFC Fight Night 127)
  • 3-3 across past six bouts, including two losses by KO/TKO (A. Volkov, S. Miocic)
  • Three of his past five fights have gone the distance, and seven of his past 15 have been decisions
  • 7-0 across past seven fights as a favorite of -200 or greater
  • 7-2 over past nine bouts overall as a favorite

Aleksei Oleinik (42-years-old)
UFC Record (7-4)

  • Last Fight - Jan. 18, 2020 (UFC 246)
  • 2-3 across his past five bouts, all as an underdog
  • Each of his past three losses have come via KO/TKO
  • His past five victories in UFC, and 10 of his past 11 professional wins, have been by submission
  • Each of his past eight UFC fights have finished inside the distance

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Fabricio Werdum by KO/TKO or Submission (-135)
Aleksei Oleinik by KO/TKO or Submission (+320)
Fabricio Werdum KO/TKO & Round 1 (+340)
Aleksei Oleinik KO/TKO & Round 1 (+1900)

Bets to Avoid
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (+235) Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+110)

Women’s Strawweight
Carla Esparza vs. Michelle Waterson

Carla Esparza (32-years-old)
UFC Record (6-4)

  • Last Fight - Sept. 21, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 17)
  • Topped Alexa Grasso by majority decision last time out on Sept. 21, 2019
  • All five of her victories at the UFC level have come via decision (four unanimous)
  • Hasn't lost via submission since Aug. 12, 2010 at BFC: Bellator Fighting Championships 24
  • 4-1 across past five bouts as a favorite

Michelle Waterson (34-years-old)
UFC Record (5-3)

  • Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
  • 3-3 across past six bouts overall
  • 3-1 over the past four fights as an underdog, 4-0 in past four as an underdog of +350 or less
  • Has never had a KO/TKO win or loss in seven fights at the UFC level
  • Each of her past five fights have gone the distance

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Carla Esparza by Decision (-115)
Michelle Waterson by Decision (+210)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-450)
How will fight end - Decision (-440)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+410)

Middleweight Bout
Ronaldo Souza vs. Uriah Hall

Ronaldo Souza (40-years-old)
UFC Record (9-5)

  • Last Fight - Nov. 16, 2019
  • Lost by split decision to Jan Blachowicz at UFC on ESPN+ 22
  • 1-3 across past four fights overall, with all three losses by decision
  • Enters 0-2 across past two fights, and has never lost three fights in a row in career
  • Has never been submitted in 34 career professional fights

Uriah Hall (35-years-old)
UFC Record (8-7)

  • Last Fight - Sept. 14, 2019
  • Defeated Antonio Carlos Junior by split decision last time out on UFC on ESPN+ 16
  • 'Prime Time' enters just 3-4 across his past seven outings, although he is 2-0 in past two
  • Five of his past six outings have resulted in either win or loss by KO/TKO
  • In 25 professional fights, only one has resulted in submission, a win at ROC 39 on Feb. 10, 2012

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
How will fight End - KO/TKO (+155)
Ronaldo Souza by KO/TKO or Submission (+160)
Uriah Hall by Submission or Decision (+300)

Bets to Avoid
Uriah Hall by KO/TKO (+260)

UFC 249 Early Prelims

Welterweight Bout
Vicente Luque vs. Niko Price

Vicente Luque (28-years-old)
UFC Record (10-3)

  • Last Fight - Nov. 2, 2019 (UFC 244)
  • All three UFC losses came by unanimous decision
  • Only one of 10 wins came by decision
  • Eight of 10 wins finished in second round or earlier
  • Four of last five wins finished by KO or TKO

Niko Price (30-years-old)
UFC Record (7-3)

  • Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
  • Has alternated wins and losses off last four fights
  • In 10 UFC fights, all have finished inside distance
  • Price has never seen the third round in any of his bouts
  • Seven outcomes by KO, three by Submission

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Vicente Luque by KO/TKO or Submission (-170)
Vicente Luque KO/TKO & Round 1 (+350)
Vicente Luque KO/TKO & Round 2 (+1000)
How will fight end? KO/TKO (-115)

Bets to Avoid
Vicente Luque by Submission or Decision (+135)
Niko Price by Submission or Decision (+550)

Featherweight Bout
Bryce Mitchell vs. Charles Rosa

Bryce Mitchell (25-years-old)
UFC Record (3-0)

  • Last Fight - Dec. 7, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 7)
  • 3-0 record in UFC
  • First two wins by decision, most recent by submission (Twister)
  • Earned 2019 Submission of the Year with the Dec. 7 win

Charles Rosa (33-years-old)
UFC Record (3-3)

  • Last fight on Oct. 18, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 6) - submission win
  • Has never won back-to-back fights in UFC
  • Two of three UFC wins came via submission
  • Five of six fights have gone into the third round

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
How fight will end - Points/Decision (-160)
Will the fight go the distance? Yes (-146)
Bryce Mitchell by Submission or Decision (-165)
Charles Rosa by Submission or Decision (+180)

Bets to Avoid
Total Rounds - Under 2.5 (+172)

Light Heavyweight Bout
Ryan Spann vs. Sam Alvey

Ryan Spann (28-years-old)
UFC Record (4-0)

  • Last Fight - Oct. 12, 2019 (UFC on ESPN+ 19)
  • Listed as favorite in all four UFC fights
  • Four straight wins in UFC, including Dana White's Contender Series 10
  • Three of four wins finished inside distance
  • Two of the victories by Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Sam Alvey (33-years-old)
UFC Record (10-8)

  • Last Fight - July 20, 2019 (UFC on ESPN 4)
  • Largest underdog on the UFC 249 card
  • 0-3 record in last three fights
  • Two of three losses were finished in second round or earlier
  • Four of last five wins came by decision, two of them split

Based on Fighter Trends

Bets to Make
Ryan Spann by KO/TKO or Submission (-145)
Will the fight go the distance? No (-240)
Total Rounds - Under 1.5 (+130)

Bets to Avoid
How fight will end - Points/Decision (+170)

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