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UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Ige Picks

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
5 minute read
The second ‘Fight Island’ show in Abu Dhabi will take place Wednesday night. Saturday’s card ran late and this one will too, as the Prelims start at 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

The main card will get going at 10:00 p.m. and all 11 fights are on ESPN.

UFC on ESPN
Kattar vs. Ige
Betting Resources

  • Betting Odds: Money-Lines, Totals
  • Date: Wednesday, July 15, 2020
  • Venue: UFC Fight Island
  • Location: Yas Island, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
  • Expected Fights: 11
  • TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, 7:00 p.m. ET

Featherweight Bout
Calvin Kattar vs. Dan Ige

UFC Fight Island
Main Event
Betting Analysis

In the main event, sixth-ranked Calvin ‘The Boston Finisher’ Kattar (21-4 MMA, 5-2 UFC) will take on 10th-ranked Dan ‘50K’ Ige in a featherweight bout. As of Tuesday night, FanDuel had Kattar installed as a -330 favorite, with Ige at +265 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $265).

The total was 4.5 rounds shaded heavily to the ‘under’ (-185, ‘over’ +140). For bettors understandably hesitant to lay a huge number on Kattar, he can be had to win by KO/TKO at a reasonable -105 price.

The 32-year-old Kattar has 11 knockouts and two submissions on his resume. Eight of his wins have come via decision, as have three of his defeats. He’s only been finished once and that was more than 12 years ago (by James Jones by submission).

Kattar amassed a 16-2 record on the regional circuits throughout the New England area. He finally got the call to the big show in 2017. Kattar took advantage in his Octagon debut by beating Andre Fili via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27).

Next, ‘The Boston Finisher’ slept Shane Burgos with a third-round KO at UFC 220. After a UD loss (27-30, 28-29, 27-30) to Renato Moicano at UFC 223, Kattar responded with back-to-back wins by first-round KO over Chris Fishgold and Ricardo Lamas.

Those wins earned Kattar a co-main event spot against Zabit Magomedsharipov as a road underdog at UFC Moscow. When Junior dos Santos was forced out of his main event opposite Alexander Volkov, Kattar-Magomedsharipov was upgraded to the headlining role, albeit in a three-round affair.

Magomedsharipov won a UD (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) over Kattar, but the Massachusetts bounced back at UFC 249 on May 9. Kattar got into a slugfest with one of the 145-pound division’s scariest strikers, and he put Jeremy Stephens out with a vicious second-round KO.

Ige (14-2 MMA, 7-1 UFC) brings a six-fight winning streak into the first five-round scrap of his career.

UFC Fight Island
Kattar vs. Ige Picks

The straight price on Kattar is well above my pay grade. However, I’ll certainly endorse Kattar in any parlay you might have working. I’ll put two units on Kattar to win by KO at the -105 price.

UFC Fight Island
Bonus Predictions

-- John Phillips (22-9-1 MMA, 1-3 UFC) has seen only one of his 32 career fights go the judges’ scorecards. The 35-year-old known as ‘The White Mike Tyson’ has 20 career wins by KO and two by submission. Five of his losses have come via submission and he’s been KO’d twice. Only seven of his 32 career bouts have made it out of Round 1. Phillips will face promotional newcomer Khamzat Chimaev, who is 6-0 with three KOs and three submissions.

None of Chimaev’s six career bouts have made it to Round 3, and only two have seen the second stanza. Let’s go with one unit on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at a -159 price from DraftKings. The price is preventing me from putting more muscle behind it. If you can find a prop bet for the scrap to end in Round 1, it should be at around a -115 price. I like that option, too.

-- In a featherweight showdown, Ricardo Ramos is a -162 ‘chalk’ vs Lerone Murphy (+136). Ramos (14-2 MMA, 5-1 UFC) has seven wins by submission and three KOs. He’s been knocked out once and submitted once. Murphy (8-0-1 MMA, 0-0-1 UFC) has five wins by knockout and each one has come in the opening frame. Let’s go with one unit on ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for +150 return at FanDuel.

-- In a light-heavyweight matchup, Andreas Michaildis and Modestas Bukauskas will make their promotional debuts against each other. Bukauskas owns a 10-2 career record with seven knockouts and two submissions. ‘Under’ 1.5 rounds (which is the total in this bout) has cashed at a 9-3 clip in his 12 career fights. Michailidis is 12-3 with seven KOs and four submissions. He’s been KO’d in all three of his career defeats. Eight of his last nine wins have come via first-round finishes and only one of his 15 career fights have gone to the judges. Let’s put two units on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds at a -108 price from  FanDuel .

-- Jared Gordon’s cornermen all tested positive for COVID-19 back in Las Vegas before boarding a flight to Abu Dhabi. Therefore, Paul Felder will take a break from his analyst duties behind the microphone and work Gordon’s corner for him. As for Chris Fishgold, he missed weight by three pounds on Tuesday. Whatever the case, I’m expecting a finish from one of these fighters. Fishgold (18-3-1 MMA, 1-2 UFC) has 13 submissions and a pair of KOs in his career, while Gordon (15-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC) has six wins by KO and two by submissions. All four of Gordon’s losses have come when he’s been KO’d. I like ‘under’ 2.5 rounds for one unit at a -139 price. Let’s also go with one unit on Gordon at a -148 price via  FanDuel .



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