UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark – Trends

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

UFC returns on Saturday, November 28 with UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark. Americans Devin Clark and Anthony Smith sqaure off in the main event, which will air live on ESPN2 from UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nevada. Below are the betting trends and probabilites for each match on the current fight card. 

Match card subject to change

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark

LUKE SANDERS vs. NATHAN MANESS

• Nathan Maness has won 12 of his last 13 fights
• Luke Sanders has seen three of his last five UFC fights end in Round 2
• Luke Sanders has seen a finished result in five of his last six fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Sanders (60.8%)
Rounds: Over 2.5 (65.5%)
Distance: Yes (59.7%)

MUDAERJI SU vs. MALCOLM GORDON

• Mudaerji Su has won 10 of his last 13 fights
• Malcolm Gordon has seen a submission result in four of his last five fights
• Malcolm Gordon has seen seven of his last eight fights end in Round 1
• Mudaerji Su has seen a finished result in 15 of his last 16 fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Su (77%)
Rounds: Under 2.5 (68.3%)
Distance: No (75.9%)

KAI KAMAKA vs. JONATHAN PEARCE

• Kai Kamaka has won six straight fights via decision
• Jonathan Pearce has seen a finished result in 10 of his last 11 fights
• Jonathan Pearce has seen a TKO result in five straight fights 
• Kai Kamaka has won eight of his last 10 fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Kamaka (77%)
Rounds: Over 2.5 (65.5%)
Distance: Yes (59.7%)

GINA MAZANY vs. RACHEL OSTOVICH

• Gina Mazany has lost three srtraight UFC fights
• Gina Mazany has seen three straight fights end in Round 1
• Rachel Ostovich has seen a submission result in three straight fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Mazany (66.7%)
Rounds: Over 2.5 (69.7%)
Distance: Yes (64.5%)

ANDERSON DOS SANTOS vs. MARTIN DAY

• Martin Day has gone the distance in four of his last five fights after seeing a finished result the match prior
• Anderson Dos Santos has gone the distance in four of his last five fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Day (62.5%)
Rounds: Over 2.5 (66.7%)
Distance: Yes (62.5%)

NORMA DUMONT vs. ASHLEE EVANS-SMITH

• Ashlee Evans-Smith has seen the underdog win four of her last five UFC Women's Bantamweight matches
• Norma Dumont has won four of her last five matches
• Norma Dumont has gone the distance in two straight fights after seeing the prior fight end in Round 1
• Ashlee Evans-Smith has lost three of her last four fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Evans-Smith (57.8%)
Rounds: Over 2.5 (74.1%)
Distance: Yes (69.7%)

SPIKE CARLYLE vs. BILL ALGEO

• Spike Carlyle has won five of his last six fights
• Bill Algeo has seen three straight fights go the distance
• Spike Carlyle has seen three of his last four fights end in Round 1

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Carlyle (63.9%)
Rounds: Under 2.5 (55.6%)
Distance: No (61.4%)

MIGUEL BAEZA vs. TAKASHI SATO

• Miguel Baeza has won seven of his last nine fights via TKO, KO or DQ
• Miguel Baeza has won nine straight fights 
• Takashi Sato has won 16 of his last 19 fights
• Takashi Sato has seen a finished result in nine straight fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Baeza (63.6%)
Rounds: Over 1.5 (59.7%)
Distance: No (73.5%)

PARKER PORTER vs. JOSH PARISIAN

• Josh Parisian has won six straight fights via TKO, KO or DQ
• Josh Parisian has seen eight of his last nine fights end in Round 1
• Parker Porter has failed to go the distance in 14 of his last 15 fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Parisian (66.7%)
Rounds: Under 1.5 (59.7%)
Distance: No (83.3%)

ANTHONY SMITH vs. DEVIN CLARK 

• Anthony Smith has failed to go the distance in nine of his last 11 fights 
• Devin Clark has won five of his last six UFC fights when facing an American 
• Anthony Smith has lost three of his last four fights
• Anthony Smith has lost three straight fights that went the distance
• Devin Clark has seen four of his last six fights go the distance
• Devin Clark has lost three of his last four fights after winning the fight prior

IMPLIED PROBABILTIES

Winner: Smith (58.2%)
Rounds: - (-)
Distance: No (60.3%)

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