UFC 256 – Tech Trends & Probabilities

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

12 minute read

UFC 256 airs this Saturday, Dec. 12 with Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Brandon Moreno in the main event. The event is set to air live on PPV from UFC Apex in Enterprise, Nevada.

Below are the betting trends and probabilites for each match on the current fight card. 

Match card subject to change

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UFC 256

CHASE HOOPER vs. PETER BARRETT

• Chase Hooper has won nine of his last 11 fights
• Chase Hooper has finished three of his last four fights prior to entering Round 3
• Peter Barrett has won 11 of his last 15 fights
• Peter Barrett has seen nine of his last 14 fights end in Round 1

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Hooper (78.3%) 

TECIA TORRES vs. SAM HUGHES

• Tecia Torres has seen 15 of her last 16 fights go the distance
• Sam Hughes has won five of her last six fights
• Sam Hughes has seen four of her last six fights end with a submission

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Torres (83.3%) 

BILLY QUARANTILLO vs. GAVIN TUCKER

• Gavin Tucker has won 12 of his last 13 fights
• Gavin Tucker has seen four straight fights enter Round 3
• Billy Quarantillo has won 15 of his last 17 fights
• Billy Quarantillo has seen three of his last four fights enter Round 3
• Billy Quarantillo has seen a finished result in six of his last seven fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Quarantillo (62.5%)

MACKENZIE DERN vs. VIRNA JANDIROBA

• Mackenzie Dern has won nine of her last 10 fights
• Mackenzie Dern has seen three of her last four fights end in a Round 1 submission
• Virna Jandiroba has won 16 of her last 17 fights
• Virna Jabdiroba has seen a submission result in three of her last four fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Dern (66.7%)

CUB SWANSON vs. DANIEL PINEDA

• Cub Swanson has lost four of his last five fights
• Cub Swanson has gone the distance in seven of his last nine fights 
• Daniel Pineda has seen a No Contest in two of his last three fights

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Pineda (61.4%)

JUNIOR DOS SANTOS vs. CIRYL GANE

• Ciryl Gane has won six striaght fights and has never lost
• Ciryl Gane has seen a finished result in five of his last six fights
• Junior dos Santos has lost three straight fights 
• Junior dos Santos has seen a TKO result in five straight fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Gane (82%)

KEVIN HOLLAND vs. RONALDO SOUZA

• Kevin Holland has won 20 of his last 25 fights 
• Kevin Holland has seen a finished result in four of his last five fights
• Ronaldo Souza has lost four of his last six fights
• Ronaldo Souza has seen three of his last four fights go the distance

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Souza (54.1%)

RENATO MOICANO vs. RAFAEL FIZIEV

• Renato Moicano has won 14 of his last 17 fights
• Renato Moicano has seen three of his last four fights end in Round 1
• Rafael Fiziev has won eight of his last nine fights
• Rafael Fiziev has seen six of his last nine fights end in Round 1
• Rafael Fiziev has gone the distance in two straight fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Fiziev (61.4%)

TONY FERGUSON vs. CHARLES OLIVEIRA

• Tony Ferguson has won 25 of his last 29 fights
• Tony Ferguson has seen a finished result in six of his last seven fights
• Charles Oliveira has won eight of his last nine fights
• Charles Oliveira has seen a finished result in 14 straight fights 

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Ferguson (63.6%)

DEIVESON FIGUEIRDO vs. BRANDON MORENO 

• Brandon Moreno is unbeaten in five straight matches
• Brandon Moreno has gone OVER 2.5 rounds in seven of his last nine fights
• Deiveson Figueirdo has won 20 of his last 21 fights
• Deiveson Figueirdo has seen three of his last four fights end in Round 1

IMPLIED PROBABILTY

Winner: Figueirdo (77%)

What is Implied Probability?

Implied probability is a conversion of betting odds into a percentage. It takes into account the sportsbooks margin to express the expected probability of an outcome occurring.

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