UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont Predictions, Picks, Odds

Oct. 16, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
VI Combat Sports Expert

This weekend the UFC returns to the Apex hosting its second straight Fight Night event. UFC Vegas 40 is headlined by Norma Dumont and Aspen Ladd, fighting in the Women’s Featherweight division.

The UFC Vegas 40 fight card consists of 11 bouts, five of which are scheduled to take place on the main card. Other notable names fighting this weekend include Manon Fiorot and Andrei Arlovski.

UFC Fight Night Ladd vs. Dumont Betting Predictions

While Ladd was originally scheduled to fight last weekend, a botched weight cut would force her bout against Macy Chiasson to be cancelled. Now, she steps in to face Dumont just seven days later.

Dumont was originally scheduled to take on Holly Holm, but as Holm was forced to withdraw with an injury, as his fight is now our main event. This is one of those fights that are great for the division. Two young prospects get to face a big step up in competition, and one will make a huge step closer to a title shot.

Ladd, 26, has had serious weight cutting issues throughout her career. A bout being cancelled due to her missing weight has happened thrice in her pro career.

UFC Fight Night Ladd vs. Dumont Main Event Betting Analysis

Dumont is still fairly new to the big scene, and her fight this weekend will mark her fourth outing under the UFC mantle. Dumont, 31, has a 2-1 record in the UFC. If you fancy your UFC underdogs, she could hold some value as she has closed at average underdog odds of +185 in all of her three bouts.

Dumont has shown a well-rounded game during her short time in the UFC, having won fights with striking and grappling. She is 6-1 in MMA and fights with a 67-inch reach.

UFC Vegas 40: Ladd vs. Dumont tale of the tape

Tale of the tape: Ladd vs. Dumont (10/16/21)
Fighter Aspen Ladd Norma Dumont
Record 9-1 6-1
Average Fight Time 7:22 11:10
Height TBD TBD
Weight 5' 6'' 5' 7''
Stance 66'' 67''
Age 26 31
Strikes Landed per Min. 5.22 4.98
Striking Accuracy 55% 53%
Strikes Absorbed per Min. 4.84 2.86
Striking Defense 46% 67%
Striking Differential 0.38 2.12
Takedowns Average/15 min. 2.45 1.79
Takedown Accuracy 75% 40%
Takedown Defense 66% 100%
Submissions Average/15 min. 1.2 0

UFC Fight Night Ladd vs. Dumont Best Bet

While Dumont has looked impressive as of late, we might be getting a discount on Ladd this weekend. Currently priced at -150 (bet $150 to win $100), Ladd has only been cheaper once in her UFC career, against former title challenger Germaine de Randamie .

Factor in that Ladd is finally making the move up to 145-pounds and I see as many paths to victory for her as you can imagine. People forget that Ladd is usually pretty dominant in her bouts, and her horrific weight cut probably means she was shot that night against de Randamie.

In 2021, the value has mostly been on the favorites, and Ladd has a well-rounded game to keep Dumont on her heels for the entire duration of the five rounds these two will lock horns. I see Ladd getting the better of clinch exchanges and dragging this fight to the ground where she will finish the fight with vicious ground and pound.

Best Bet: Aspen Ladd ML