UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland Predictions, Picks, Odds

Michael Crosson Sports Betting Expert

28 minute read

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland (also known as UFC Vegas 47) is next up on the UFC schedule. A middleweight bout between no. 6 ranked Jack Hermansson and no. 7 ranked Sean Strickland is expected to serve as the headliner. 

UFC Vegas 47 will take place on February 5, 2022, at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The fight card is expected to have a total of 13 fights on tap.

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: HERMANSSON VS. STRICKLAND BETTING PREDICTIONS

Strickland has been on a roll lately winning four in a row since moving up to middleweight for good. The 30-year old is mainly a striker but can initiate grappling exchanges if need be. In his last bout, he beat divisional veteran Uriah Hall via unanimous decision and managed to get four takedowns in the process. 

Cardio is not an issue for Strickland as he has won three of his last four by way of decision. Hermansson is more of a scrappy well-rounded guy with some solid wins in the division. Jack has tended to come up short against good strikers that can keep the fight standing in the past.

On paper Strickland fits the profile of the fighter that Hermansson struggles with. Striking is Sean’s bread and butter and his 82% takedown defense means he will be able to keep this fight on the feet. Hermansson throws volume when he strikes but he is not dangerous at range. ‘The Joker’ has yet to win via knockout from a standing position in the UFC. His knockouts come in the form of ground and pound. Meanwhile, Strickland possesses the finishing ability that has handed Hermansson losses before. 

Hermansson always comes out with a high pressure and activity level but Strickland has the cardio to match that going the distance. A big part of Jack’s game is relying on cardio in the later rounds and he does not have that advantage over someone with the endurance of Strickland. Sean will have the upper hand in the striking exchanges and that hands him this victory.

When Hermansson comes up short in the UFC it is usually inside the distance. In four UFC losses, Jack has been finished three times. Strickland can be a decisionater from time to time but his sharp counter striking tends to be too much for grapplers that cant get him down. Strickland gets the knockout.

Best Bet: Strickland via Finish (+162)

Best Bet: Strickland ML (-250)

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: HERMANSSON VS. STRICKLAND TALE OF THE TAPE

UFC FIGHT NIGHT: HERMANSSON VS. STRICKLAND BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Venue: UFC Apex
• Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
• Network: ESPN+
• Prelims Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• Main Card Time: 7:00 p.m. ET

PUNAHELE SORIANO VS. NICK MAXIMOV PICKS

Striker versus grappler. Maximov made his octagon debut at UFC 266 with a unanimous decision win over Cody Brundage. The 24-year old is relentless with his chain wrestling and has cardio for days. In his debut he racked up more than nine minutes of control time while scoring three takedowns over the course of 15 minutes.

Punahele Soriano (8-1), is a heavy-handed striker with five knockouts in eight professional wins. He is coming off a decision loss to Brendan Allen where he was outpunched over three rounds. Both fighters involved here are fairly young and lack experience on the big stage. Soriano has made the walk more times but has less experience in going the distance.

In Soriano’s most recent performance his striking was exposed. The shots were targeted up top and there were no adjustments at any point in the fight. He was only hitting shoulders while loading up on big punches. Soriano does have power but he loads up to such an extent that even the most mediocre of strikers can see his punches coming.

Don’t be fooled by Soriano’s 100% takedown defense either - only one takedown attempt has been made against him in his UFC run so far. That cardio will be tested and his sprawling ability will be put on display. The betting line favors the striker but I’ll give the benefit of the doubt to Maximov who has a significant grappling advantage. You’re definitely betting potential over credentials, but since neither guy has established credentials I’ll side with the plus money.

Let’s have a look at some prop bets. The fight is at middleweight where judges don’t get involved the majority of times. Given the nature of the matchup, both fighters have a large advantage over the other - Soriano has the knockout opportunity and Maximov has the submission. I think the stars are aligned for this fight to finish inside the distance. If Maximov can’t get a takedown, he might not survive Soriano’s barrage, meanwhile if he does manage to grapple he might sink in that choke sooner rather than later.

Best Bet: Nick Maximov ML (+165)

Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance - No (-164)

SHAVKAT RAKHMONOV VS. CARLSTON HARRIS PICKS

Just before the co-main kicks off we have a great matchup of prospects at 170-pounds. Rakhmonov is lethal with a 100% finish rate and an unbeaten 14-0 run in professional MMA. In the UFC octagon he is 2-0 with wins over two savvy veterans. What makes Shavkat so dangerous is that he is well-rounded. He has seven submissions and seven knockouts on his record for a perfectly split 50/50 method of victory ratio. 

On the feet he is hard to hit with his long range and sharp striking. On the ground he has a strong submission game and a tight squeeze. Cardio is a question mark for the youngster who has yet to see the scorecards however he doesn’t seem to slow down in outings that go past round one. Standing across from Rakhmonov will be Carlston Harris, a 34-year old UFC newcomer with 17 wins and four losses. Harris is 2-0 in the UFC just like his opponent and has also won both of his octagon bouts via finish. 

Harris is well-rounded like Rakhmonov but is more versed in going the distance, a feat that might serve him well against a finisher like Shavkat. Regardless of who wins I think the UFC is looking to build new talent in emerging markets with this matchup. Rakhmonov represents a new generation of mixed martial artists fighting out of Central Asia whereas Carlston Harris fights out of South America.

Rakhmonov doesn’t have his usual reach advantage in this fight, but youth is on his side once again on Saturday. On paper the fighters match up evenly, but when you dissect the level of opposition each has faced there is a clear advantage for Rakhmonov.

Strictly speaking with personal opinion, Shavkat is also on a different level. He went out there and wrestled Prazeres in his last bout, even submitted the 30-fight veteran, something no one had been able to do prior. Prazeres is a second-degree black belt in BJJ, mind you, and Rakhmonov made it look easy.

If striking doesn’t work out for the Rakhmonov I give him the clear advantage on the ground, and that’s why I think he gets his hand raised on Saturday. Harris will definitely want to strike, but Rakhmonov can comfortably get this fight to the ground and win via submission. The prop betting market is heavily swayed by that 100% finish rate of Shavkat. However, we have a veteran on the other side with a wealth of experience to draw from - Harris will not fall easily. 

I like to go against the narrative in fights like this. Only one of the fighters is controlling where the plus money lies in the ‘Does The Fight Go the Distance’ prop market and that means we can take advantage of it. If Rakhmonov had a few decision wins we would not be getting this value, at the same time, if either fighter would have won via decision in one of their UFC bouts this value would also not be here. Rakhmonov has never gone the distance, but that doesn’t mean he never will. Harris will pull the youngster into deep waters and give him a run for his money.

Best Bet: Fight Goes Distance - Yes (+175)

Best Bet: Shavkat Rakhmonov ML (-250)

SAM ALVEY VS. BRENDAN ALLEN PICKS

This is it for Alvey, the final chance. If he takes an L this weekend I don’t think we will see good ‘ol Sam on another contract in the UFC. Sam Alvey is a veteran of the octagon with 22 UFC appearances and 10 wins. ‘Smile’N’ has struggled to get his hand raised since beating Gian Villante via split-decision in 2018. The veteran is winless in a whopping seven consecutive bouts since then, losing three of them via split-decision and drawing with Da-Un Jung in 2020.

Alvey is scrappy and he has some power in his hands. His path to victory over the well-rounded Brendan Allen should be to clinch up and dirty box. We have seen in Allen's losses that he doesn't do well in scrappy bouts. The chin is also a question mark for the youngster as he has been knocked out quite a few times in his career now. If Alvey can wear on him and make him carry his weight he has a shot at finishing Allen late. 

Brendan has some good power himself, and he always throws with crisp technique. He is not naturally a striker however and he leaves himself open to counter shots when exchanging. In just three out of his seven UFC bouts has Allen actually managed to outland his opponent with punches. That is a stat heavily making me consider Alvey as the side in this bout. Allen does not have the technique to warrant him as a -400 favorite. Alvey has that veteran grit to punish the durability issues of someone like Allen. I think he has a legitimate shot on Saturday. 

Sam just needs to draw from his massive experience advantage and rope-a-dope the far less savvy opponent and he should be able to win. The betting market has completely abandoned Alvey which means it might be the perfect time to get onboard. Going against the general consensus one usually finds some value. 

3-to-1 odds on a fighter with five times the UFC appearances of his opponent is pretty surreal. That has to count for something. Alvey also has a pretty legit takedown defense (81%) for 22 fights. The guy is strong as an ox and he is almost impossible to keep down. 

When Allen loses it's usually the same story we end up telling - he has durability issues. If Alvey can connect with that veteran power of his I could see him shutting the lights off for Brendan on Saturday. Let’s not forget that most middleweight fights end inside the distance. 

Best Bet: Sam Alvey ML (+300)

Best Bet: Sam Alvey via Finish (+550)

TRESEAN GORE VS. BRYAN BATTLE PICKS

Two TUF graduates face off in a 185-pound bout. The experience between both guys is not great but Battle definitely has the advantage in that area. Including fights on TUF, Gore has a total of nine mixed martial arts bouts, only five of which are as a professional. Battle has 19 counting his extensive amateur background and his fights on TUF which is quite a bit more than Tresean Gore when tallied. 

I feel that since both fighters are so green in their careers, experience is the most important factor in determining the outcome of the fight. There is also an inactivity factor on the side of Gore. The 27-year old has been out of professional competition since October of 2020 not counting his exhibition bouts on TUF. 

Going through Gore’s resume I see a lot of pullouts and cancelled bouts throughout his relatively short MMA career. These two were also scheduled to compete earlier where Gore pulled out with an injured knee. The limited amount of tape you can find on Gore showcases his crisp technique but also his underdeveloped takedowns and overzealous striking. 

Battle is prone to getting hit but he is a scrapper in the octagon. Betting odds favor Gore however nothing on paper tells me he has an advantage here. Bryan has gotten that debut out of the way and has gotten more control of that nervous energy. Gore is less experienced, smaller in size, and has been less active as of late compared to his counterpart on Saturday.

On TUF both guys left the show with two wins in two bouts so you can’t draw any major conclusions from that either. The only factor that can make Gore the favorite is watching tape on him and Battle and comparing it. Once again I’ll let the benefit of the doubt lead me to the underdog.

Best Bet: Bryan Battle ML (+145)

JULIAN EROSA VS. STEVEN PETERSON PICKS

At 145-pounds Julian Erosa looks to solidify his place in the featherweight division against well-rounded Steven Peterson.Erosa is doing very well at this point in time in the UFC. Currently going on his second stint for the promotion, Erosa has tidied his skill set up since re-signing with the UFC in 2020.

‘Juicy J’ is a potent finisher with an 88% finish rate. Three of his four UFC wins have come by way of finish.

Erosa is a well-rounded guy with good submission abilities as well as knockout power. Durability has failed him in the past but as long as he is the hammer he tends to do well. It is once Erosa becomes the nail, figuratively speaking, that he comes up short.

Despite being continuously written off by the betting market throughout his second stint in the UFC, Erosa has been getting his hand raised in three of his last four bouts under the UFC mantle. He has been priced at plus money in all of those fights.

Now it seems that the bookmakers have had enough of his upsetting performances as he is priced at -350 with most sportsbooks heading into Saturday’s fight.

Peterson has had questionable results in the octagon but he is a well-rounded fighter with a decent fighting IQ.

Peterson is rarely finished and as a result he often sees the scorecards when losing. At the same time Erosa usually comes up short on the ‘cards, as he is 3-4 in decision fights as a professional. Composure is lacking for ‘Juicy J’.

Skill for skill I’d give Erosa the edge, but since both guys excel in most areas of fighting its tough to predict where the fight will take place.

I will say this: the longer this fight goes the more I will favor the underdog. Peterson is scrappy and has really excellent cardio. Erosa starts losing his overview of the fight the longer it goes and starts overextending himself looking for a finish.

Peterson also has some momentum behind him as he has won two straight.

The line change for Erosa makes me side with him. I don’t like him in the role of the favorite, considering it was only months ago that he was booted from the promotion due to going 0-3 on his contract.

Best Bet: Steven Peterson ML (+260)

MILES JOHNS VS. JOHN CASTANEDA PICKS

Miles Johns is a well-rounded fighter with killer cardio. He is 3-1 in the octagon coming into Saturday’s bout on a two-fight win streak.

Castaneda has an issue with pacing in his fights. He seems to always be a step behind his opponent. In his sole UFC win he beat aging veteran Eddie Wineland via finish in round one. However when he was battle tested against Nathaniel Wood he completely fell apart. In that fight he landed 55 strikes to Wood’s 131, losing all rounds unanimously.

Wood is a high volume guy, mind you, but he is also known for taking a lot of shots in fights. Castaneda just was not able to find the mark.

Johns is not that high volume but he throws with precision and gets out of dangerous positions well. His 71% striking defense will definitely come into play on Saturday as John, primarily a striker, will be looking to land the big punch and close the show.

The fact that Castaneda always seems to be a step behind tells me that it will be John dictating where this fight takes place. If he wants to grapple, it will be him shooting for the takedown. If he wants to strike, he goes ahead and does that. John seems to only have one gear and he has a hard time picking up the pace when he is behind on the cards.

Miles is already the far more technically sound fighter in my book, so as long as he gets out ahead early he should be able to coast and win a decision.

There’s also a glaring advantage, on paper, in the striking department for Johns who lands four punches for every two absorbed whereas Castaneda absorbs five for every four he lands - he has a negative strike differential.

Neither holds a trump card on the ground with submission ability so I don’t see why Johns doesn’t get this fight in the bag on Saturday.

Best Bet: Miles Johns ML (-250)

HAKEEM DAWODU VS. MICHAEL TRIZANO PICKS

Hakeem Dawodu looks to get back in the win column after coming up short against undefeated prospect Movsar Evloev.

Dawodu is a striker with a large toolbox. His heel has always been grappling. His takedown average of 0.0 makes him a rarity in today’s MMA. He literally has no grappling base.

His wrestling defense has held up for the most part throughout his UFC run but it was exposed a little bit in his most recent outing against Movsar Evloev. He was controlled for nine minutes in that fight.

Trizano is not exactly a chain wrestler but he has shown the ability to shoot for takedowns in the past. I think he needs to get this fight to the ground to win. Dawodu’s technique makes him the more fluid striker and he probably runs away with a decision unless Trizano makes something happen on the ground.

Fighters like Dawodu can be fun to watch but they rarely get far in MMA - the sport is too evolved. Hakeem has striking ability but if Trizano can get a few takedowns, possibly make this an ugly fight in the clinch, I see him winning.

Have we seen anything from Trizano to make us believe he will be able to implement such a game plan though? Kind of … In his last fight it was actually Ludovit Klein implementing the grappling against him, but Trizano prevailed with slick striking and angles. Trizano does know how to rack up some control time though.

Both guys are very young, but only one possesses a skill set encompassing all aspects of MMA, and that is Trizano. Dawodu is a striker who wandered into an octagon and now has a career.

Looking through Dawodu’s resume, 0 submission wins just confirms my suspicion that he has no ground game. You need grappling in modern MMA, you won’t make it to the top without it.

I can’t back Dawodu when there’s even the slightest chance that his opponent can take him down. Trizano is intelligent enough to change it up here.

Best Bet: Michael Trizano ML (+160)

CHIDI NJOKUANI VS. MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT PICKS

UFC debutant, Chidi Njokuani, gets his first test under the bright lights this Saturday as he faces scrappy middleweight contender Marc-André Barriault.

Njokuani is a DWCS graduate with a third-round knockout finish of Mario Souza back last year. He has the body type of a Israel Adesanya - tall and lanky with a good reach utilization.

Chidi comes into his own on the feet when striking from a distance. His 80-inch reach allows him to move in and out of space without getting hit with big shots coming at him.

Grappling is not particularly present in Njokuani’s skill set but he is able to sprawl when needed. In his DWCS fight he was able to reverse positions to his favor and rack up control time throughout the fight.

Barriault obviously has the experience advantage given the fact that he has fought multiple decent opponents in the UFC. Established fighters tend to beat debutants more often than not, so already the pick’em betting line is making me lean toward the more battle tested fighter.

I think Chidi is a bit young to have seven losses on his record too. I rarely put too much stock into wins and losses but a guy with seven losses is bound to run into problems once he signs with the best promotion in the world.

Barriault’s UFC record is not pretty, but he has shown improvements from fight to fight and now he is on a three-fight winning streak heading into Saturday’s bout, two if you don’t count his NC against Piechota.

Being on a clear upwards trajectory is huge for a guy like Barriault. In his first three UFC outings he was outlanded 162 to 189. In his most recent three, he has outstruck his opponents 333 to 230. That’s a giant plus.

I did mention that Chidi was a bit young to have seven losses already, but I also think he is a bit old to be making his UFC debut. 33-years of age is quite a bit older than the average UFC debutant age of 27.5 years.

Leaning on statistics a bit, the older fighters making their debut are the less often their win probability tends to be.

In short, Barriault is on an upwards trajectory, Njokuani is not.

Best Bet: Marc-André Barriault ML (-110)

ALEXIS DAVIS VS. JULIJA STOLIARENKO PICKS

We go to the women’s bantamweight division where divisional veteran Alexis Davis faces Julija Stoliarenko.

This fight is a matchup between two fighters that are not doing well in the UFC. The winner most likely gets to stay. It’s a classic procedure carried out by the UFC when a division needs trimming.

Alexis Davis is a veteran with fights dating all the way back to Strikeforce. She actually has a win over Amanda Nunes and had a fight with Ronda Rousey when ‘Rowdy’ was still the ruler of the 135-pound women’s division. Davis is 37-years old which is old for a female fighter in MMA.

The age discrepancy is giant in this fight. Stoliarenko is nine years younger than Davis which is rare for a women’s fight. 

I won’t sugarcoat it: this fight is pretty low level. Davis probably has the more complete skill set, but she is so easily beaten by girls with anything just resembling a game plan. On the flip side Davis has shown an ability to land north of 100 strikes against some decent names, and even managed to get a win over Sabina Mazo two fights ago.

Then again, Stoliarenko’s nine-year age advantage is pretty significant too. However Julija has not been able to get a win under the UFC mantle yet, and that is a dealbreaker for me in predicting this fight. This is Davis’ fight to lose. She has the better skill set and can drag the fight to the ground if she wants.

Honestly speaking, the defensive wrestling of both fighters is nonexistent, and the first person to shoot for a takedown most likely secures it and wins that round. I’m willing to predict that Davis will be the one initiating those exchanges based on her veteran experience and her takedown average being a bit higher historically.

Best Bet: Alexis Davis ML (-225)

JAILTON ALMEIDA VS. DANILO MARQUES PICKS

In this preliminary bout we head to the 205-pound division where the newly-signed Jailton Almeida will be making his debut against Danilo Marques.

My, oh, my do have some value at this betting line.

Almeida got the submission win in his DWCS bout, but apart from the submission I did not see anything warranting him being a -450 favourite over a guy like Danilo Marques in his UFC debut.

Almeida is persistent with his takedowns, I’ll give him that, but he is still green in MMA. He gave up top position on the ground just about every time he managed to secure a takedown and was even reversed from advantageous positions multiple times in that fight. I don’t see a -450 favorite here.

Contrary to what bettors may think of Marques, he is actually a shark on the ground. His main path to victory has been the submission throughout his career. He choked out Mike Rodriguez just two fights ago.

Striking-wise it’s clear that Almeida does most of his work to set up his takedowns. He is not comfortable standing in a phone booth with anybody and has low volume. All of his focus is based on getting that takedown.

I’m willing to bet that Almeida will secure takedowns in this fight, but that’s only because Marques has a historical takedown defense of 0%. That’s right, Marques has no problem going to the ground with opponents if they decide to drag the fight there. It just so happens that he usually gets the better of them once the fight hits the mat.

Marques has never been submitted, and in turn, he has five wins via ‘sub.

If this fight is even close to a ‘draw’ in terms of grappling ability both men in-between, you have made a good bet siding with the underdog here. For that simpler reason, I’ll go with the underdog to get the win on Saturday.

UFC debutants also have a historically mediocre winning probability against more experienced fighters. The juice on Almeida is unwarranted, let’s take advantage of that.

Best Bet: Danilo Marques ML (+325)

JASON WITT VS. PHIL ROWE PICKS

Wrestling-heavy Jason Witt takes on finishing striker Phil Rowe at 170-pounds.

Jason Witt has received criticism for lacking durability in the octagon, and I can’t say I disagree with it. Witt has been finished in all of his MMA losses, knocked out in 71%.

In the UFC Jason averages over six takedowns per fight meaning his path to victory is clear: wrestle. On the other hand we have Rowe with a ten-inch reach advantage and a 100% finish rate looking to put the nail in the coffin or Jason.

Rowe has a 100% finish rate. Witt has been finished in all of his losses. The narrative definitely favors Rowe.

If not for the size advantage of Rowe I’d probably be picking Witt here. The size discrepancy means Rowe will be able to keep his distance and ward off the frequent takedown attempts coming his way.

Rowe often participates in grappling competitions and picks up a lot of experience in that regard. I think that experience will serve him well in this matchup.

I don’t see Witt getting a finish here. Rowe is savvy enough to survive and since ‘The Fresh Prince’ carries his finishing ability into the later rounds he has 15 minutes to land something big, whereas Witt needs to be perfect for 15 minutes to win.

Of course, this is only a narrative but Witt does get it done going the distance fairly often so I expect him to win that way, should he be the one to get his hand raised.

Watching Witt beat Barberena was impressive, but he has a tendency of shooting from a distance. If Rowe can keep that jab on Witt at all times he will have a hard time getting on the inside.

The smaller cage favors Rowe in my opinion. Witt will either want to be clinching or at range - he will never want to stand and trade in a phone booth with the far superior striker that Rowe is.

Best Bet: Phil Rowe ML (-145)

MALCOLM GORDON VS. DENYS BONDAR PICKS

Malcolm Gordon has closed as the ‘dog in all of his UFC bouts and has amassed a 1-2 record in those outings. If you’ve backed him in all of his three UFC fights you will be up in return.

Yet the bookies have yet to catch on to him.

Bondar is a UFC debutant with a lot of first round finishes on the regional scene. The question always arises for guys like Bondar making their UFC debut: will they be able to make up for the step up in competition?

It’s always tough to predict. However, we know that Gordon is positive expected value. Why? Well, the guy has closed an average +225 ‘dog in his three UFC outings for an implied win probability of 30% yet he has won 33% of his outings.

Now we are able to grab Gordon as a hefty plus-money underdog once again when he faces a fighter making his UFC debut. That doesn’t seem right.

Bondar has great finishing ability, but he is 0-1 in decision fights. In half of his fights that have gone past round two he has lost - by no means stating this as an x-factor of the fight, but nevertheless there are some amateurish tendencies to Bondars’ game which an experienced guy like Gordon could punish.

There has been a chin issue for Gordon in the past, but thit being a flyweight bout means it goes the distance more than 50% of the time, on paper.

For that reason alone I think Gordon is the valued side in this matchup.

Since December of 2018 debutants fighting at flyweight have gone 8-9 for an average win probability of 47%.

Best Bet: Malcolm Gordon ML (+190)

Odds & Bouts Subject to Change - per BetMGM

Michael Crosson

Michael Crosson began his time at VegasInsider as a freelance NBA writer back in 2019 while he continued to study Psychology and Biology at James Madison University. Following his graduation in 2021, Michael joined the team full-time, and he's been with VI ever since. Michael still writes NBA, NFL, and MLB for VI, as well as gambling industry news. He's also become a crucial part of our editorial production team. More from Michael Crosson