UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

17 minute read

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal is the next upcoming pay-per-view event produced by the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). The event will take place on March 5, 2022 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The headlining event is expected to feature former interim welterweight champion and former title challenger Colby Covington in a five round main event for the ages. He will take on former teammate and two-time title challenger Jorge Masvidal. A heated rivalry is brewing between both fighters and the showdown is one for the fans. Can Colby Covington smother Masvidal with his wrestling - or will the hard-hitting ‘Gamebred’ reign supreme with another highlight-reel finish?

We will find out.

UFC 272 Welterweight Main Event
Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal

Former training partners and friends Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal have had a heated rivalry brewing for quite some time now. 

Ever since Covington’s rise to stardom his trash-talking antics have turned most of his allies to enemies, Masvidal being at the top of that list. Both fighters are at the top of the welterweight division right now however Masvidal is the one in dire need of a win. 

‘Gamebred’ has lost two straight to reigning champion Kamaru Usman. Covington also came up short against Usman in his most recent outing but the competitive nature of that fight means he can afford another loss.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Odds

Back in January Covington opened as the -375 favorite (bet $375 to win $100) with Masvidal as the +280 underdog (bet $100 to win $280). 

Since then the money has been coming Covington’s way and now the line sits at -400 (bet $400 to win $100) for Colby while the comeback on Masvidal is priced at +300 (bet $100 to win $300).

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Odds Comparison

Bettors have plenty of options to bet Covington vs. Masvidal and you can compare the odds at three of the most popular betting operators in the United States.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal In-Depth Preview

UFC 272 features Covington and Masvidal in the main event. Both fighters have had long careers and carries a lot of octagon experience. Masvidal has historically been more closely associated with the underdog role whereas the opposite is the case for Covington.

Colby Covington

Age: 34 | Height: 5'11" | Weight: 169 lbs | Record: 16-3-0 | UFC Record: 11-3-0

The 34-year-old Colby Covington is quickly becoming one of the sport’s biggest names. With his trash talk and persona it is hard not to tune in to watch him fight. Either you want to see him beaten or you want him to win - Covington knows how to sell tickets for sure.

‘Chaos’ is a strong wrestler averaging north of four takedowns per fight. Generally speaking he is known for his cardio which allows him to keep a high volume on opponents and overwhelm them with pressure, specifically in the later rounds.

Covington is 11-3 in his UFC tenure with two losses against Kamaru Usman. Dare I say both fights were fairly close? 

Regardless, the betting market seems to be aware of Covington’s abilities, as he has closed a historical -147 favorite in his fourteen outings to the octagon. Only thrice has he closed at plus money, once against Demain Maia (where he cashed) and in both showings against Usman, both of which he lost. 

Covington is usually labelled a 'decisionater' by fans and media, however in the UFC he has won five of his 11 wins by way of finish - almost half. 

Jorge Masvidal

Age: 37 | Height: 5'11" | Weight: 170 lbs | Record: 35-15-0 | UFC Record: 12-8-0

‘Gamebred’ is a veteran of the MMA world and an entertaining presence in the octagon. The 37-year-old has had a lifetime in the sport of fighting - starting out in the streets of Miami as a young man and making it all the way to the biggest promotion in the world. 

Jorge was known mostly as a journeyman for an extended period of his MMA and UFC careers, however in 2019 his career seemingly landed itself on a second wind picking up three straight finishes over big names such as Darren Till and undefeated Ben Askren. 

Since then Masvidal’s reputation has exceeded him and he has become one of the biggest stars in the sport, even going on to fight for ‘BMF-belt’ against Nate Diaz at UFC 244, created exclusively for the fight.

Masvidal has closed at average odds of +112 throughout his UFC career and has assembled a record of 12-8 in that time.

As of late the veteran’s main method of victory has been the knockout, however widening the scope deflates the notion that Masvidal is mainly a finisher. He has picked up 17 (49%) of his 35 professional wins via decision. 

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Striking Stats

Striking statistics are massively in favor of Masvidal who not only beats Covington on strikes landed and absorbed, but also on accuracy and defense. Statistics only tell us a part of the story however, and generally stats become less indicative of skill the more experienced both guys are. That said, the stats certainly seem to confirm who the better striker is.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Grappling Stats

Grappling stats show an advantage for Masvidal however since Covington averages far more takedowns on average his takedown accuracy data is bound to be skewed by that.

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Tale of the Tape

Covington is the younger man by three years. The average welterweight age is around 33 years. Colby just turned 34 in February. Could Masvidal be nearing the end of his career at age 37?

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal Prediction

Heated rivalries are always fun. I think this could end up selling pay-per-views in the ballpark of a million.

Covington will be looking to crowd Masvidal and negate that ‘Gamebred’ striking by taking him down. Masvidal has fallen short to a wrestler before and I doubt he will be able to overcome it at this stage in his career.

The thing we need to keep in mind is that Jorge, being 37-years-old, is not getting any better or evolving significantly. At least we can force that narrative onto this fight. Generally your learning curve flattens as you age. That’s why we rarely get 40-year-old champions in the UFC and that’s why younger fighters typically beat older fighters if the discrepancy is great.

Masvidal has good striking and he needs to punish Covington with good shots to win here. However once these two exit round one Covington will start to unleash that cardio advantage and overtake Masvidal like an avalanche. ‘Chaos’ just does not stop. The guy has the record for most strikes landed in a welterweight fight.

Usman was able to stifle the pressure of Covington by meeting him in the middle and going to the body. Covington’s striking looked significantly improved in his last time out and he even managed to wobble Usman at one point which was impressive to see.

Colby’s forward pressure mitigates the threat of Masvidal. His offense is his defense as the age-old saying goes. 

Early on Masvidal might have the striking advantage however I only give him a puncher’s chance, meaning the longer the fight goes the more his chances of victory decrease. Once lactic acid starts filling up the muscles and fatigue starts setting in, knocking somebody out becomes quite difficult. The wrestler, Covington, will be able to lean on Masvidal and speed up that process.

Let’s also not discredit trends. Masvidal is 5-7 in bouts that have seen the judges’ scorecards in the UFC. That’s not exactly an indication of a composed fighter in my eyes. Meanwhile Covington is 6-1 in decision fights, 6-0 if you filter out his recent title fight against arguably the best pound-for-pound fighter on the roster right now.

We essentially have two guys looking to win in contradictory ways: Masvidal wants to land a big shot and call this an early night, Covington wants to grind on Jorge and take him into deep waters.

That narrative will always favor the latter in my book. As I said, the knockout puncher has limited time to implement success - round one has always been the round in which finishes happen, from there on out the probability of a finish is cut in half every round.

Masvidal could do it, but seeing as he has never gone past round two and finished anybody, apart from that Nate Diaz doctor stoppage, I’d say Covington pulls this off. After all, how often do -400 favorite lose? The betting market has chosen a side that I do not disagree with - I don't mind laying the chalk. 

Covington-Masvidal Prediction: Colby Covington (-400) def. Jorge Masvidal

UFC 272 Catchweight Co-Main Event
Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Rafael Moicano

Moicano was at one point of the 145-pound division's most highly touted prospects. He is a solid striker with a strong submission game. In the UFC Renato has good performances. Despite having four losses under the UFC mantle he has only ever lost to the best. Moicano started his UFC tenure at 145-pounds but has since made the move up to lightweight. He was won two straight coming into Saturday's co-main event against Dos Anjos.

Dos Anjos is a well-known name, likely familiar with most fans. Former lightweight champion and 170-pound interim-title challenger, Rafael Dos Anjos, is one of the most octagon savvy fighters still competing. With a total of 30 UFC bouts it's safe to say he has a wealth of experience fighting elite guys.

Can an old war horse make another run at the title or will the new contender reign supreme this Saturday?

We break down the co-main event of UFC 272 between Rafael Dos Anjos and Renato Moicano.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Odds

Odds for the UFC 272 co-main event opened in early March and there has seemingly been little to no action on either side from the betting market. Currently Rafael Dos Anjos is favorited to win with odds of -170 (bet $170 to win $100). Moicano, the short-notice replacement, is the underdog at +140 (bet $100 to win $140).

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Odds Comparison

Most American sportsbooks have Dos Anjos in place as a moderate favorite to win his upcoming bout against Renato Moicano.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano In-Depth Preview

The prospect-versus-veteran matchup is a classic one in all combat sports.

Moicano has been doing well as a lightweight ever since moving up. His only loss in the weight class came against Rafael Fiziev, in a fight where he didn't do that bad. He was one two straight coming into UFC 272, both via submission.

Rafael Dos Anjos has fought at both welterweight and lightweight and has become a very well-rounded mixed martial artist throughout his lifelong career. He has the tools to do well in most areas of the game.

Can his veteran skill set prepare him for the younger Renato Moicano?

We will find out on Saturday.

Rafael Dos Anjos

Age: 37 | Height: 5'8" | Weight: 155 lbs | Record: 30-13-0 | UFC Record: 19-11-0

Veteran Rafael Dos Anjos has been competing on the biggest MMA stage in the world for over a decade.

He had his first MMA fight at the age of 19 (in 2004) and has since then competed a total of 42 times, with fights against some of the biggest names the sport of MMA has ever seen.

Anjos was briefly linked to a fight against none other than Conor McGregor, however the fight never materialized as Anjos had to pull out with an injury.

The 37-year old does not have a fighting style that cannot be labelled as he does not specialize in any particular area of fighting. In 30 professional wins he has won five via knockout, ten by submission, and 15 by way of decision. He is extremely well-rounded.

His well-roundedness can be viewed both as a pro and a con. On the plus side he is never completely out of a fight no matter where the fight takes place. Recent wins of his against the likes of Kevin Lee and Paul Felder speaks volumes to this.

On the flip side he can have trouble dealing with specialists as he doesn't excel in one particular area of fighting. Specifically against potent grapplers he has had issues. All three wrestling-heavy grapplers that he has faced have given him a hard time: Khabib Nurmagomedov, Michael Chiesa and Kamaru Usman.

The devil is in the details for Anjos' losses as he has consistently faced some of the best fighters on the roster. Just in his last ten bouts alone, his losses entail Leon Edwards, Kamaru Usman, Colby Covington, and Tony Ferguson. That's a murderers' row of some of the best talent the UFC has to offer.

Anjos has closed at average odds of +125 (bet $100 to win $125), in the UFC. He has cashed as the underdog in five of 12 fights.

Renato Moicano

Age: 32 | Height: 5'11" | Weight: 155 lbs | Record: 16-4-1 | UFC Record: 8-4-0

Former featherweight contender, Renato Moicano, is starting to pick up momentum right now winning two of his last three of his most recent.

Moicano is a well-rounded fighter with good striking with and a dangerous submission game.

Despite coming up short againg UFC prospect Rafael Fiziev, Moicano seems to be coming into his own in this division. A win over Dos Anjos would certainly help him prove that he belongs at the top of the 155-pound division. He gets possibly his biggest test this weekend against Rafael Dos Anjos.

Moicano has closed an average -130 favorite as a UFC fighter. He is 3-1 in four UFC outings as the underdog.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Striking Stats

Moicano slightly edges out Dos Anjos on the striking totals however the veteran has one up on his opponent in terms of striking defense and punches absorbed.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Grappling Stats

Grappling stats lean in favor of Dos Anjos. Moicano a dangerous grappler who hunts for submission on the ground. Dos Anjos averages about two takedowns in a three-round fight and has amassed numerous accolades for his grappling throughout his lifelong career. Should the fight hit the ground we could be looking at a stalemate.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Tale of the Tape

Youth is in favor of Moicano however experience goes to Anjos who has over twice as many professional bouts as his opponent.

UFC 272: Dos Anjos vs. Moicano Prediction

Initially, Anjos was scheduled to fight Fiziev, one of the most dangerous strikers the division has right now. Now he faces a submission grappler with striking has his secondary focus.

The short-notice for Moicano means a lot here. It is only natural to assume that the veteran, Dos Anjos, is more well prepared coming into the fight. He has had a full training camp unlike his opponent.

In what ways can Moicano win?

As I mentioned, he does possess the grappling to perhaps even give a guy like RDA a run for his money, however he doesn't necessarily have the best wrestling to back it up. His game is mainly based around striking and looking for openings to go in for a takedown. On occasions where Moicano fails to get into his rhythm he doesn't do all that well. Fiziev was able to overwhelm him before he got his wresling going. Taking the center should be a main priority for RDA here.

As with most grapplers, Moicano wants his opponents trapped to shoot in on a takedown. Due to his large frame and reach, he is usually able to take the center of the octagon at featherweight and lightweight, however in a catchweight against a guy like RDA I'm not sure he will be able to walk down his opponent like he usually does.

The weight is also a significant factor: Moicano is a guy who has fought at 145-pounds, meanwhile RDA has faced the best of the 170-pound division. The strength will most likely be an advantage for Dos Anjos. He is used to fighting far bigger guys.

Allow me to speak forthright, Moicano's career has been a story of winning the lay-up fights and taking losses to the bigger names. Wins: Tom Niinimaki (SUB), Jeremy Stephens (split decision), Zubaira Tukhugov (split decision), Calvin Kattar (unanimous decision), Damir Hadzovic (SUB), Jai Herbert (SUB), Alexander Hernandez (SUB). The only really impressive win in that mix is the one over Kattar. His split-decision win over Jeremy Stephens was extremely close.

Now, let's look at the losses: Brian Ortega (SUB), Jose Aldo (KO), The Korean Zombie (KO), Rafael Fiziev (KO). I'm starting to see a pattern here.

RDA is by no means a knockout machine, however he can crack. His pressure is good, and I think the speed he brings will earn him the more significant punches landed this weekend. Moicano mostly peppers his shots from the outside and looks for the takedowns. However if he is kept on his back foot he does not shoot. That's the reason he did not shoot once against Calvin Kattar despite winning. He was pressured for the entire duration of that fight.

The chin worries me for Moicano, and now that he's fighting bigger guys you've gotta wonder if it will hold up. He's going up against a former welterweight here.

Then there's the short-notice aspect of it all. Fighters taking fights on short notice don't exactly have outstanding winning trends throughout history, more-so when the replacement is the underdog.

The key is pressure for RDA - pressure to take away the takedown threat and go to the legs.

I'll side with the veteran here.

Dos Anjos-Moicano Prediction: Rafael Dos Anjos (-170) def. Renato Moicano.

UFC 272 Odds & Bouts

The UFC 272 card is expected to have up to 14 fights on tap for the March 5 card from Las Vegas, Nevada.

Main Card

• Welterweight bout: Colby Covington (-330) vs. Jorge Masvidal (+250)
• Catchweight bout (160 lb): Rafael Dos Anjos (-170) vs. Renato Moicano (+140)
• Featherweight bout: Edson Barboza (+125) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-150)
• Welterweight bout: Kevin Holland (-250) vs. Alex Oliveira (+200)
• Heavyweight bout: Sergey Spivak (-220) vs. Greg Hardy (+180)

Prelims

• Lightweight bout: Jalin Turner (-130) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+110)
• Women's Strawweight bout: Marina Rodriguez (-285) vs. Yan Xiaonan (+225)
• Light Heavyweight bout: Nicolae Negumereanu (+130) vs. Kennedy Nzechukwu (-165)
• Women's Flyweight bout: Maryna Moroz (+170) vs. Mariya Agapova (-205)

Early Prelims

• Featherweight bout: Brian Kelleher (+400) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-550)
• Flyweight bout: Tim Elliott (+200) vs. Tagir Ulanbekov (-250)
• Lightweight bout: Devonte Smith (-165) vs. Ludovit Klein (+135)
• Light Heavyweight bout: Michal Oleksiejczuk (+150) vs. Dustin Jacoby (-180)

Bouts and Odds Subject to Change - per BetMGM

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