UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Picks, Predictions, Odds
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The UFC is back after a two-week break and the card we have here looks crazy!
The UFC Middleweight Championship is on the line as Alex Pereira will attempt to make his first title defense against the former champion Israel Adesanya at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida.
We have a total of 15 fights scheduled for this Saturday, with the early prelims starting at 6:00 p.m. ET before the main card starting at around 10:00 p.m. ET.
Listed below are my UFC 287 Picks, Predictions and Best Bets.
Let's get it on!
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Best Bets
- Alex Pereira to Win (+115)
- Gilbert Burns by KO/TKO/DQ or Sub at (+105)
- Kelvin Gastelum to Win (-123)
- 3-Leg Parlay (+643)
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Picks & Predictions
The UFC 287 main card is expected to start at 10:00 p.m. ET.
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Picks
The UFC Middleweight champion Alex Pereira makes his first title defense attempt this Saturday night against Israel Adesanya, the man who has ruled the division from late 2019 until late 2022.
This will be the 4th meeting between these two fighters and Pereira has won each of their last three. The first two times it was in the kickboxing ring and once more in the Octagon. The last two were KO/TKO wins and it’s safe to assume that he has a significant psychological advantage heading into this one.
Despite that, the bookmakers are favouring Adesanya here, with -142 odds next to his name while the champ is available at +116. He had success last time out against Pereira in the striking department but was ultimately unable to get the job done. He landed a takedown in the third round and was winning the fight up until the 5th round. Despite fighting with great IQ throughout, a momentary lapse of judgment saw him leaning up against the cage and getting caught by a flurry of punches.
Pereira is huge and powerful for the middleweight division and has proven to be a very difficult opponent for Izzy. The one thing that caught my eye was his constant pressure and determination. He was hesitant at times when his gas tank was running low, but he bounced right back and is such a huge threat to finish the fight by KO/TKO at any moment. I expect Izzy to try and grapple again, but with Glover Teixeira in Poatan’s camp, I expect him to make some progress in the grappling department as well. Also, Pereira's psychological advantage in this fight will play a huge role, and I expect him to get the job done once again.
Best Bet: Pereira to Win (+115)
UFC 287 Burns vs Masvidal Picks
Gilbert Burns makes his return to the octagon after that impressive submission victory over Neil Magny. He has fought 4 times in the last 2 years and is 2-2. He suffered a TKO loss to Kamaru Usman in early 2021, as well as a decision loss to Khamzat Chimaev a little more than a year ago. He is in great shape right now and hasn’t taken any damage in his last fight. Burns is currently 5th in the Welterweight rankings and in a great position to put his name back into title contention.
Jorge Masvidal has had a very weird career path of late. He is on a three-fight losing streak and coming off a decision loss to Colby Covington a year ago. He fought Usman for the title twice around 2 years ago and lost both times, once via decision and the other was a vicious KO loss. We all remember that insane flying knee against Askren and we thank "Gamebred" for giving us that gem, but that was 4 years ago and it may be time to hang them up. He isn’t the fighter he once was and facing another grappling artist really isn’t something he excels at. He hasn’t fought in over a year and turns 39 in November. I don’t think his head is in the game anymore, and he even said himself that he plans to retire should he lose. Not a good way to approach a fight.
The betting lines are definitely off, as Burns is a heavy favourite at -500 odds to win this one and there is no value in backing him in the moneyline. This is why I’m looking for the most likely outcome. Masvidal has some power in his hands, but I don’t think he will be able to knock out Durinho. You need Usman-level power to pull that off. Burns is also no joke on the feet with some nice power behind his shots, and if the fight ends up on the ground, he is taking your back and choking you out. I’m going with Burns via finish.
Best Bet: Burns by KO/TKO/DQ or Sub at (+105)
UFC 287 Gastelum vs Curtis Picks
The UFC 287 main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET.
It’s do or die for Kelvin Gastelum in this one. He’s one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC, but his 1-5 record over the last 4 years does not look good. He is coming off a decision loss to Jared Cannonier and is desperate to bounce back, currently sitting 15th in the UFC Middleweight rankings. That said, let’s take a look at his opposition during this cold streak. We’re talking about Israel Adesanya, Darren Till, Jack Hermansson, Robert Whittaker and Jared Cannonier. These are some of the top guys in the division, champions and contenders, except for Till of course, and Gastelum had some great performances against each one.
For Chris Curtis, this is a nice opportunity to climb the rankings against a very tough opponent. He is 14th among the Middleweights, and he still hasn’t faced the top fighters in the division. He has won 4 of his 5 fights since joining the UFC back in 2019 and is coming off an impressive KO win over Joaquin Buckley. There is no question that the momentum is on his side right now, but let’s take a look at what we can expect here.
For one, Curtis has the height and reach advantage. He is a great counter-puncher and is very difficult to take down to the mat. He also has a lot of power in those hands, boasting 17 career KO/TKO wins. But I think the 3-round fight suits Gastelum a lot more due to his tendency to gas out in longer fights. He is facing an opponent that doesn’t move around as much as the top guys and is simply there to be hit, absorbing 6.39 strikes per minute. I expect Gastelum to start the fight quickly and take the first round. Curtis’ counter-punching is always dangerous, but Gatselum’s chin is incredible, and even when he gets hurt, he can bounce back quickly. I’m picking Gastelum to get the job done here.
Best Bet: Gastelum to Win (-123)
UFC 287 Best Bets Video
UFC 287 Betting Odds
UFC 287 Main Card Odds
Alex Pereira +116 vs. Israel Adesanya -142
Gilbert Burns -500 vs. Jorge Masvidal +360
Rob Font +152 vs. Adrian Yanez -188
Kevin Holland -260 vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio +205
Raul Rosas Jr. -250 vs. Christian Rodriguez +198
UFC 287 Preliminary Card Odds
Kelvin Gastelum -132 vs. Chris Curtis +108
Michelle Waterson-Gomez +138 vs. Luana Pinheiro -170
Gerald Meerschaert +168 vs. Joe Pyfer -220
Karl Williams -450 vs. Chase Sherman +330
UFC 287 Early Preliminary Card Odds
Cynthia Calvillo +225 vs. Loopy Godinez -290
Ignacio Bahamondes -340 vs. Trey Ogden +260
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -188 vs. Steve Garcia +152
Jaqueline Amorim -280 vs. Sam Hughes +220
UFC 287 Betting Resources
UFC 287: UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 Odds
Date: Saturday, April 8, 2023
Network-Time: ESPN+, ESPN, PPV, 1:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Kaseya Center
Location: Miami, Florida
UFC 287 Betting Trends
As of Friday morning, BetMGM is providing bettors with the opening and current odds, plus the betting and handle percentages for the UFC 287 main card bouts.
