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UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Betting Odds

 

Mar. 21, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC 260 will feature a UFC heavyweight championship rematch bout between current heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and no. 1 contender Francis Ngannou. The two previously met at UFC 220, on January 20th, 2018, where Miocic won on points.

A featherweight championship bout between current champion Alexander Volkanovski and Brian Ortega was unfortunately scrapped as Volkanovski tested positive for the coronavirus.

Per his Twitter account:


Fortunately, UFC 260 is still stacked with other great bouts such as Tyron Woodley vs. Vicente Luque, and Sean O’Malley vs. Thomas Almeida.

UFC 260 Betting Resources

UFC 260 goes down on Saturday, March 27, 2021.

The event will take place at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, United States.

In this segment, we break down the betting lines for some of the biggest fights of UFC 260, while looking to find some betting value.

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Odds Movement

The opening betting line saw Francis Ngannou as the clear favorite, at odds -175 (Bet $100 to win $175; 64% implied win probability).

Odds: Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou
Fighter Open 1/21 1/27 2/24 3/14 3/21
Stipe Miocic +150 +137 +125 +125 +115 +110
Francis Ngannou -175 -164 -152 -152 -135 -130

However, sharp bettors and early birds have been leaning towards the champion, which is why we’re now getting closer odds between the two.

At the current betting line of +125, (Bet $100 to win $125), Miocic has an implied win probability of 45%. That’s a 5% shift from the probability his initial odds suggested, at +150.

As of March 21, BetMGM has pushed Ngannou down to -130 while the return on Miocic is +110.


In their first bout at UFC 220 in 2018, Stipe Miocic (R) dominated Francis Ngannou with a unanimous decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44). (AP)

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Odds Analysis

For once, I’m actually completely disagreeing with the betting lines. And not just a little bit, I really think the odds should be swapped, so we’d get Francis as the dog and Miocic as the favorite.

I can’t, for the life of me, figure out why Miocic is the underdog against a man he’s already beaten, badly. What’s even crazier is that many bookies actually brought out Miocic as a bigger underdog than he was in the first fight.

Personally, I think it just goes to show that people believe Francis is destined to become the heavyweight champion. However, I’m not sure I see legitimacy in that prediction. What we’ve seen throughout history is that punching power only gets you so far in the heavyweight division - you need technique to be the best.

However, my personal opinion of Ngannou’s skill-set aside, the value is simply on the champion as an underdog. In 2020, not a single champion lost his/her belt. To add more value on Miocic, in rematches, the winner of the first fight wins the second 8/10 times.

Personally, I’d still be on Stipe all the way up to the -140 range, as he’s just proven himself to be so much more technically sound in the cage. With back-to-back victories over one the greatest heavyweights of all time, Daniel Cormier, I believe Ngannou could very well turn out to be a step down in competition for the champion.

Ngannou has never in his career gone the distance and won, which is one of the reasons I’m all over Miocic as an underdog.

Final verdict: The betting value is on the champion in the main event of UFC 260. I strongly suggest you get involved with Miocic as soon as possible if you favor him in his bout, as I think sharp bettors will soon begin unloading on him. The odds movement has already shown an interest in Miocic over Ngannou.

That said, if you’re on Ngannou here, I think the first-round KO prop is the only way to go.

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 - Over-Under Odds

The oddsmakers at BetMGM currently have this total listed at 1.5 Rounds with the Over (-120) listed as the short favorite over the Under (+100).

If you're undecided on whether you believe the fight will last longer than 7.5 minutes, you could bet on other distance props.

When will the Fight Finish?

  • Round 1 +160
  • Round 2 +350
  • Round 3 +750
  • Round 4 +1100
  • Round 5 +1500

Will the Fight go the Distance?

  • Yes +260
  • No -350

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Odds Comparison

Stipe Miocic vs. Francis Ngannou - Money Line Odds (3/27/21)
Fighters
Stipe Miocic +115 +113 +125 +120
Francis Ngannou -135 -135 -148 -150

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Breakdown

While the first fight definitely made Miocic out to be the more well-rounded fighter of the two, Ngannou’s power is still uncommon, even in a division where finishes are most common.

One punch is really all it takes for Francis to get the win, which is also reflected in the fact that it took him only 30 punches combined to win his last 4 fights.

The wrestling of Miocic ended up being too much for Ngannou the first time around, so if he has managed to improve on that deficiency in his game then he might fare better against the champion.

The thing is, we haven’t really gotten a chance to witness how much his wrestling has improved, since his last 4 fights have lasted a combined 2 minutes and 52 seconds.

What we do know is that Ngannou’s volume significantly decreases in the later rounds, and overall his volume is nowhere near that of the champion. On average, Stipe lands over twice as many punches every minute compared to Francis, while being 52% more accurate.

Unless Francis develops a nifty takedown defense, Stipe might be able to have his way with him on the ground once again.

In the first fight, I actually saw Stipe having quite a lot of success on the feet, catching Francis on more than one occasion with some slick counter shots.

If Ngannou is not careful, he could get knocked out too.

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 Picks & Best Bets

While Ngannou’s power is unrivalled in the heavyweight division, I believe Miocic gets it done again when they face each other on March 27th.

Ngannou's game is very one-dimensional, and he only really has one path to victory: the knockout.

One-trick ponies are only good at a certain level, but when pitted against a well-rounded mixed martial artist, they are simply outmatched - and that’s what happens the first time Miocic and Francis fought.

Ngannou does not kick, engage in the clinch, nor does he shoot for takedowns. His gamplan is simple: stand and bang and get the job done early. However, that game plan does not take into account what happens if the fight drags on.

I have to go with the victor from the first fight, Stipe Miocic, who probably gets the win in this rematch at UFC 260.

I predict Stipe Miocic to retain his title against Ngannou at UFC 260.

UFC 260 Miocic vs. Ngannou Betting Insights

Rematch: In 2020 rematches, the winner of the first won the second 8/10 times.

Champion: Last year, UFC champions went undefeated with a combined record of 13-0-1. Miocic, being the defending champion here, will have some statistical significance linked to him in that regard.

Deep Waters: Francis Ngannou has never won a fight that has gone past round 2. He is 0-3 in decision fights.


  
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