UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler Betting Odds

VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert

3 minute read

May 11, 2021

by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

UFC 262: OLIVEIRA VS. CHANDLER ODDS MOVEMENT

Bookies brought out Charles Oliveira as the favorite at -161 (bet $161 to win $100) with Michael Chandler as the ‘dog at +130 (bet $100 to win $130).

Since then, a surplus of bettors have been getting in on the Michael Chandler side, which is why we’re now seeing the betting lines evening out.

As of Friday April 16, Chandler is a +115 at BetMGM while Oliveira is a 5/8 favorite (-140).

UFC 262: OLIVEIRA VS. CHANDLER ODDS ANALYSIS

It’s tough for me to say who is the rightful favorite in this fight, but I feel like Oliveira’s odds are more justifiable given his lengthy UFC career, while Chandler only just had his debut earlier this year.

However, there is definitely a history where Bellator fighters are undervalued by the betting market. That said, it still needs to make sense if you’re going with the underdog in a matchup like this, where one fighter is clearly used to fighting at a higher level than the other.

Despite picking against Chandler in his bout against Hooker, I still feel like the question of whether the Bellator competition is as high as the UFC’s is, holds validity. The average ranked contender is simply not at the level of a similar fighter in the UFC.

Sure, the top fighters of Bellator might be UFC caliber, but there are only a few names that I believe could make it in the UFC.

Michael Chandler looked sharp in his UFC debut, earning a first-round knockout over Dan Hooker at UFC 257. (AP)

The point I’m trying to make is that Chandler should probably be a bigger underdog than he is in this fight, given his non-existent UFC career. At the same time, Oliveira is a guy who has been a journeyman for the majority of his career, and who has seemed to take his game to the next level as of late. Oliveira will be sporting an eight fight win streak coming into this fight. That kind of UFC experience holds value to me.

There is definitely some recency bias affecting the Chandler betting line, and it’s often best to bet the other way in that situation.

Oliveira is the valued side for me in this fight, because he is the proven UFC fighter. There are still many unanswered questions regarding Chandler’s abilities at the highest level.

I think people are going to start unloading on Chandler, so if you’re backing the Oliveira side, you may want to wait.

Final verdict: The value is on Charles Oliveira.

UFC OLIVEIRA - BETTING LINES HISTORY (LAST 5)

UFC 256:

(W) Charles Oliveira +130 vs. Tony Ferguson -161

UFC on ESPN+ 28:

(W) Charles Oliveira +125 vs. Kevin Lee -152

UFC on ESPN+ 22:

(W) Charles Oliveira -400 vs. Jared Gordon +300

UFC on ESPN+ 10:

(W) Charles Oliveira -400 vs. Nik Lentz +300

UFC on ESPN+ 2:

(W) Charles Oliveira -125 vs. David Teymur +100

UFC CHANDLER - BETTING LINES HISTORY (LAST 5)

UFC 257:

(W) Michael Chandler +130 vs. Dan Hooker -161

Bellator 243:

(W) Michael Chandler -233 vs. Benson Henderson +185

Bellator 237:

(W) Michael Chandler -345 vs. Sidney Outlaw +260

Bellator 221:

(L) Michael Chandler -227 vs. Patricio Freire +175

Bellator & USO: Salute the Troops

(W) Michael Chandler -556 vs. Brent Primus +400

UFC 262

Along with the UFC Lightweight Championship on tap, the UFC 262 card from Houston, Texas has three other big-name fights and the odds are available.

• Lightweight Bout: Beneil Dariush -155 vs. Tony Ferguson +130
• Middleweight Bout: Jack Hermansson -185 vs. Edmen Shahbazyan +155
• Featherweight Bout: Shane Burgos -125 vs. Edson Barboza +100

Odds per BetMGM - Subject to Change

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