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UFC 263 Adesanya vs Vettori 2 Betting Odds

 

June 8, 2021
by Adam Lykkesteen
UFC Expert
VegasInsider.com

The rematch between UFC Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya and surging divisional contender Marvin Vettori is official for UFC 263, scheduled for Saturday, June 12th.

The event will take place at Gila River Arena from Glendale, Arizona which is the same venue where the two fighters met for their first bout.

UFC 263 Betting Resources


Since losing to Stylebender, Vettori has racked up 5 consecutive wins, and is now looking to get his second stab at the undisputed champion.

Adesanya is coming off his first career loss to UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz, and is now headed back down to his own division to get some redemption.

Vettori is a well-rounded powerhouse, and the rematch with Adesanya should be a great fight!

For the co-main event, we have another great rematch between UFC Flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno in the books. The first fight was voted among the best fights of 2020, so the rematch should be quite spectacular.

Let’s dive into the betting lines for the UFC 263 bouts, and see if we can find some value.


Adesanya vs. Vettori Recap

In just his second UFC outing, Adesanya faced the Italian Marvin Vettori in a three round bout. The contest was closely contested, but Adesanya walked away as the winner via split-decision in the end.

Adesanya controlled the early rounds, while Vettori out-grappled ‘Stylebender’ in the third and final round. Overall, Adesanya was the superior fighter, but Vettori’s success in the final round definitely showed Israel that there is more to MMA than striking, and might have been a learning experience for ‘Izzy’ going forward.


Despite losing the first bout to Adesanya via split decision, Vettori still believes he won the fight in his mind. (AP)

Writer’s verdict: Why did Vettori lose?

Marvin Vettori was simply outmatched on the feet. The 6-inch reach disadvantage made it incredibly difficult for Vettori to get close to Adesanya at all, and made the first two rounds quite hard for Marvin.

However, as we saw in his fight against UFC 205-pound champion Jan Blachowicz, Adesanya is much easier to take down when he’s worn out, which is perhaps why Vettori found success with the grappling in round 3.

Furthermore, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly what Vettori is good at, as seems to fight differently in every outing. Sometimes, he grapples, sometimes he strikes. In spite of this, the guy is one of the more well-rounded fighters on the roster, which could help him against Adesanya this time ‘round.

UFC 263: Adesanya stats in the last fight

  • Knockdowns: 0
  • Strikes landed: 57 of 123
  • Takedowns: 0 of 1
  • Control time: 0

UFC 263: Vettori stats in the last fight

  • Knockdowns: 0
  • Strikes landed: 46 of 154
  • Takedowns: 2 of 6
  • Control time: 3:18

UFC Adesanya vs. Vettori 1

When the pair met three years ago on the main card of UFC on FOX 29 or what was also known as UFC on Fox: Poirier vs. Gaethje, Adesanya was 28-years-old while Vettori was just 24.

Adesanya captured a 29-28, 29-28, 28-29 split decisionover Vettori and you can watch the fight below from 2018 and make your own judgement.


UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Odds Analysis

Currently most bookmakers have UFC Middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya, priced at around -250 (bet $250 to win $100), while Vettori is the ‘dog at odds +200 (bet $100 to win $200).

Implied probabilities for Adesanya and Vettori to win are respectively 71%, and 33%.

While the numbers have moved up and down since this fight was announced, the numbers are still in the same neighborhood.

As of Sunday June 6, Adesanya remains a healthy -250 betting favorite at BetMGM sportsbooks.

Odds: Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori
Fighter Open 4/30 5/8 5/17 6/6
Israel Adesanya -240 -270 -275 -265 -250
Marvin Vettori +200 +230 +235 +225 +200


Adesanya is priced at the same odds as he was the last time, which leads me to believe that people are getting off the 'Izzy' hype-train after his loss to Blachowicz.

It's always a good idea to try and cancel out the noise when the public starts to grasp onto a narrative about a fighter, here the narrative being that Adesanya is 'done'.

I still think Adesanya is in that Jon Jones category, as long as he stays in his own division. Fighters in the Jon Jones category are extremely dominant and rarely face big adversity in their bouts.

Adesanya hasn't really struggled in a fight apart from the Gastelum and Blachowicz bouts, and I think his skill level is above the average challenger in the Middleweight division.

Israel is valuable at his current odds of -250.

Israel Adesanya vs. Marvin Vettori Round Total

DraftKings is the only sportsbook offering Over-Under odds for this fight as of Sunday June 6.

  • Over 4.5 (-177)
  • Under 4.5 (+130)

The first meeting went to decision although it was a three-round fight.

During Vettori's five-fight winning streak, four of them went to the judges and only two of his career fights in the UFC have finished inside distance.

Adesanya has watched four of his UFC fights finish inside distance, three of them in the second round while the other six bouts went to the scorecards.

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 Prop Bets

Renowned sportsbook BetMGM has many interesting prop bets available for this weekend's Middleweight main event.

Will the fight go the distance?

While the different round totals can provide more specific bets, this betting market can be easier to deal with if you believe a fight is likely to go the distance.

Currently the Yes is priced at -133 (bet $133 to win $100), whereas the No is priced at +110 (bet $100 to win $110).

Given that the first fight between Vettori and Adesanya went the distance, there's a likelihood that it will do so again. However, if you believe either fighter will come alive in the championship rounds, BetMGM has betting lines available for which round the fight will end in.

When will the fight finish?

This market is fun to play around with, because you can place small wagers on a multitude of rounds if you believe a fight is likely to end, say, in the championship rounds (rounds 4 and 5).

  • Fight ends in round 1: +420
  • Fight ends in round 2: +650
  • Fight ends in round 3: +800
  • Fight ends in round 4: +1200
  • Fight ends in round 5: +1900

Round and Method of Victory

Another market that usually has juicy betting lines is the round and method of victory market.

You can precisely pick how and when you believe your fighter gets it done.

Let's say Adesanya wins the rematch by fourth round KO, you can bet on that.

  • I. Adesanya wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1: +650
  • I. Adesanya wins by Submission in Round 1: +5000
  • I. Adesanya wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2: +950
  • I. Adesanya wins by Submission in Round 2: +5000
  • I. Adesanya wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3: +1100
  • I. Adesanya wins by Submission in Round 3: +5000
  • I. Adesanya wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4: +2000
  • I. Adesanya wins by Submission in Round 4: +5000
  • I. Adesanya wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5: +2800
  • I. Adesanya wins by Submission in Round 5: +5000

Let's see betting lines for the challenger, Marvin Vettori.

  • M. Vettori wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1: +3300
  • M. Vettori wins by Submission in Round 1: +3000
  • M. Vettori wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by Submission in Round 2: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by Submission in Round 3: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by Submission in Round 4: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 5: +5000
  • M. Vettori wins by Submission in Round 5: +5000

You can find odds for all prop markets at BetMGM.

UFC 263 Betting Odds

Along with the main event, there are 13 other expected bouts for Saturday's card in the desert.

Listed below are all of the fights and the latest odds per BetMGM.

UFC 263 Main Card

  • Flyweight Championship - Deiveson Figueiredo (-250) vs. Brandon Moreno (+200)
  • Welterweight Bout - Leon Edwards (-450) vs. Nate Diaz (+340)
  • Welterweight Bout - Demian Maia (+200) vs. Belal Muhammad (-250)
  • Light Heavyweight Bout - Paul Craig (+240) vs. Jamahal Hill (-300)

UFC 263 Preliminary Card

  • Lightweight Bout - Drew Dober (-140) vs. Brad Riddell (+115)
  • Light Heavyweight Bout - Eryk Anders (-145) vs. Darren Stewart (+120)
  • Women's Flyweight Bout - Lauren Murphy (+115) vs. Joanne Calderwood (-140)
  • Featherweight Bout - Movsar Evloev (-250) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (+200)

UFC 263 Early Preliminary Card

  • Women's Bantamweight Bout - Pannie Kianzad (-225) vs. Alexis Davis (+180)
  • Lightweight Bout - Frank Camacho (+165) vs. Matt Frevola (-200)
  • Featherweight Bout - Chase Hooper (+115) vs. Steven Peterson (-140)
  • Lightweight Bout - Fares Ziam (-115) vs. Luigi Vendramini (-105)
  • Heavyweight Bout - Carlos Felipe (-200) vs. Jake Collier (+165)

Bouts & Odds Subject to Change



  
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